The Bull Market: Long in the Tooth; Are the good times over? We look at the 35 bull markets since 1900

The Bull Market: Long in the Tooth

Are the good times over? We look at the 35 bull markets since 1900

MARK HULBERT

Updated Jan. 17, 2014 6:31 p.m. ET

The U.S. stock market is more overvalued than it was at the majority of the past century’s peaks, according to six well-known valuation ratios. That doesn’t mean the bull market is coming to an end, of course, since some past bull markets were even more overvalued when they topped out. Furthermore, no two market peaks behave the same way. Read more of this post

Refighting the ‘mortgage wars’ could bring new risks to the housing market

Refighting the ‘mortgage wars’ could bring new risks to the housing market

By Steven Pearlstein, Saturday, January 18, 10:08 AM

In the five years since the 2008 financial crisis, there have been various attempts to make sense of what happened and why.

The latest — and, to my mind, one of the more convincing — comes in a new book, “Mortgage Wars,” by Timothy Howard, the former chief financial officer of housing finance giant Fannie Mae. Howard’s thesis is that the crisis was the result of a bitter and protracted political war that pit Fannie and its corporate cousin Freddie Mac against a group of giant banks and ideological foes determined to break their lucrative hold over the $11 trillion American home-mortgage market. In the end, Howard argues, the banks prevailed long enough to lead themselves and the rest of us over the cliff. Read more of this post

Pimco’s Brazilian Love Affair Ends Decade After Lula Bet

Pimco’s Brazilian Love Affair Ends Decade After Lula Bet

Bill Gross is souring on Brazil.

After the country’s real-denominated debt plunged 13.6 percent last year, more than the 9 percent average decline for developing nations, Pacific Investment Management Co.’s chief investment officer said Jan. 15 that Brazil was no longer a preferred market. His $237 billion Total Return Fund cut Brazilian assets to 3.27 percent in December from 4.18 percent three months earlier, its most recent investment report showed. Read more of this post

Outlook 2014: Solutions to Ten Conflicts

Outlook 2014: Solutions to Ten Conflicts

By Johan Galtung on 6:16 pm January 16, 2014.
Alfaz, Spain. There are conflicts old and new crying for solution and reconciliation, not violence, with reasonable, realistic ways out. Take the South Sudan conflict between the Nuer and the Dinka. We know the story of the borders drawn by the colonial powers, confirmed in Berlin in 1884. Read more of this post

Interest-Rate Obsession May Doom Turkey’s Erdogan

Interest-Rate Obsession May Doom Turkey’s Erdogan

It is possible that Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be undone not by the corruption probe he is suppressing, but by his fixation on low interest rates.

For several years Erdogan has been pushing the idea that higher interest rates are inherently bad, and indeed — contrary to conventional economic theory — cause inflation. His view is that the central bank’s job should be to target a real-terms interest rate of zero. Read more of this post

Fiat Heir Elkann Reshapes Family Legacy With Chrysler

Fiat Heir Elkann Reshapes Family Legacy With Chrysler

While Fiat SpA (F) Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne, 61, got the spotlight for the New Year’s Day swoop to secure full control of Chrysler Group LLC, a reserved 37-year-old will ultimately determine whether that transatlantic combination succeeds. Read more of this post

Debate rages on the big returns from small-caps; Smaller companies reliably outperform over the longer term

January 17, 2014 3:11 pm

Debate rages on the big returns from small-caps

By John Authers

Smaller companies reliably outperform over the longer term

Size matters. It is one of the least contentious issues in investment. When buyingstocks, the smaller the company, the better your chance of a good long-run return. Read more of this post

Bargain Hunting in U.S. Spreads Christmas Coal to UPS

Bargain Hunting in U.S. Spreads Christmas Coal to UPS

The list of U.S. companies that didn’t get what they wanted for Christmas is growing.

United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) became the latest when it said today that a crush of last-minute orders resulted in higher costs and lower-than-expected earnings. Earlier this week, Best Buy Co. said holiday sales fell, while Target Corp. (TGT)’s Christmas was marred by a security breach. Read more of this post

In Hong Kong, having women on the board has no effect on company performance

In Hong Kong, having women on the board has no effect on company performance

By Heather Timmons @HeathaT January 17, 2014

Hong Kong activist investor David Webb has crunched the numbers on shareholder returns and the gender breakdown of local boards, and found it doesn’t really matter whether women are involved or not. Read more of this post

Utilities Shut 12% of Europe Gas Plants; “Utilities have completely failed to anticipate changing carbon prices, coal prices, and the impact of renewables deployment and how these could affect the economics of gas investments”

Utilities Shut 12% of Europe Gas Plants, Oxford Study Shows

Ten of Europe’s biggest utilities mothballed 21.3 gigawatts of gas-fed stations last year, or 12 percent of Europe’s generation fleet, as plants lost money for a second year, according to an Oxford University study. Read more of this post

Shale’s ‘Next Big Play’ Draws U.S. Gas Producer to Australia

Shale’s ‘Next Big Play’ Draws U.S. Gas Producer to Australia

Australia has the most attractive shale gas prospects outside North America, according to Magnum Hunter Resources Corp. (MHR), a Houston-based producer that says it has scoured the world looking for deposits of the gas that has revolutionized energy supply in the U.S. Read more of this post

In shale, Britain has a second chance to mend its fortunes

January 17, 2014 8:09 pm

In shale, Britain has a second chance to mend its fortunes

By Misha Glenny

Profits should be invested for the nation, not frittered, writes Misha Glenny

Imagine a country where government welfare payments are generous and not under attack. A utopian kingdom in which all books are guaranteed to sell at least 1,000 copies because the state believes that every library – none of which are closing – should bring together the entire cultural output of the land. When its citizens venture abroad they are welcomed and loved, for they spend billions on aid for countries less fortunate than their own. Yet, despite all this opulence and generosity, their government owes a negligible amount of debt. Read more of this post

Don’t Take Democracy for Granted in Asia

Don’t Take Democracy for Granted in Asia

By Mark Beeson on 12:44 pm January 18, 2014.
A little less than three decades ago, Francis Fukuyama made a very big name for himself by predicting that liberal democracy would sweep the planet. Simply put, in a world freed of the divisive ideology of the Cold War, in which capitalism reigned triumphant, individuals simply wouldn’t put up with authoritarian governments that tried to curb liberty and individual interests. Read more of this post

South-East Asia not looking pretty

Updated: Saturday January 18, 2014 MYT 7:21:07 AM

South-East Asia not looking pretty

BY TAN SRI DR MUNIR MAJID

Denial will not solve anything.

SOUTH-EAST Asia is the region to watch this year for better or for worse.

Of course we would like the world to see the bustling activity towards regional integration by the end of 2015. Although there would previously have been trepidation of Myanmar’s chairmanship of Asean, there is this year no fear it will screw up or cause the region huge embarrassment. Read more of this post

Bond Market Developments Crucial for Asean’s Ambitions

Bond Market Developments Crucial for Asean’s Ambitions

By Nitin Jaiswal on 3:16 pm January 17, 2014.
By a number of macro-economic measures Southeast Asia is on the fast track.

According to figures released in October by the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations the bloc’s GDP grew by 5.7 percent in 2012; contrast that with the anemic 1.4 percent in developed countries last year. Read more of this post

Former Democratic Party chairman Anas Urbaningrum has denied an accusation by his former treasurer and business partner, Muhammad Nazaruddin, that he pocketed almost $1 billion in kickbacks

Nazaruddin Levels $1 Billion Kickback Accusation at Anas

By Novianti Setuningsih & Markus Junianto Sihaloho on 11:11 am January 18, 2014.
Former Democratic Party chairman Anas Urbaningrum has denied an accusation by his former treasurer and business partner, Muhammad Nazaruddin, that he pocketed almost $1 billion in kickbacks for allegedly rigging a combined Rp 64 trillion ($5.31 billion) worth of government contracts.

Speaking to reporters following his questioning on Friday at the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) office in South Jakarta, Anas said the money went into “Nazaruddin’s own pocket.” Read more of this post

Will the Spirit of Reform Survive Indonesia’s Upcoming Elections?

Will the Spirit of Reform Survive Indonesia’s Upcoming Elections?

By Damien Kingsbury on 11:23 am January 18, 2014.
Indonesia’s democracy is being increasingly tested by the triple challenges of anti-reform actors, a high-level political malaise and popular disenchantment with the electoral process. Read more of this post

The art market: Fairly popular; The rapid growth of art fairs is changing the way galleries operate

The art market: Fairly popular; The rapid growth of art fairs is changing the way galleries operate

Jan 18th 2014 | From the print edition

SHORTLY after The Economist went to press, about 25,000 people were expected to turn up at the London Art Fair. Your correspondent visited just before, as 128 white booths were being filled with modern paintings and sculptures. Dealers clutched mobile phones to their ears or gathered in small groups. They seemed nervous—as well they might be. “I can earn a year’s living in one fair,” said one harried dealer while stringing up a set of lights. Read more of this post

JPMorgan Sees Asian Currencies Extending Rout on Economy

JPMorgan Sees Asian Currencies Extending Rout on Economy

Asian currencies are poised to extend declines amid concern an increase in borrowing costs in China and a weakening yen threaten economic growth in the region, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said. Read more of this post

Chinese shadow banks face major test after ICBC refused to bail out investors in a dud $500m issue. Chinese Stocks Tumble On Contagion Concerns From First Shadow-Banking Default

Last updated: January 16, 2014 6:45 pm

Chinese shadow banks face major test

By Josh Noble in Hong Kong, Jamil Anderlini in Beijing and Sam Fleming in London

China’s vast shadow banking sector is facing its biggest test after ICBC, the world’s biggest bank by assets whose branches sell many of these wealth products, refused to bail out investors in a dud $500m issue. Read more of this post

China rules out promotion for officials with family overseas

China rules out promotion for officials with family overseas

Friday, January 17, 2014 – 12:24

Reuters

BEIJING – Chinese officials whose spouses and children have emigrated will not be considered for promotion, state media reported, in the latest move to crack down on pervasive corruption. Read more of this post

Anheuser-Busch InBev: Here’s to payday; Sell assets, win bonuses. Buy them back, keep bonuses. Nice work

Anheuser-Busch InBev: Here’s to payday; Sell assets, win bonuses. Buy them back, keep bonuses. Nice work

Jan 18th 2014 | From the print edition

PAYING $4 billion for a business you sold for $1.8 billion five years ago is not much of a way to make money. But Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI), a giant brewer, may be about to do just that. It is reported to be negotiating to buy Oriental Brewery of South Korea from its private-equity owners, including KKR, to which it had sold the firm in 2009. The sale helped ABI hit financial targets which unlocked $2.5 billion of bonuses for its executives, including $289m for its boss, Carlos Brito. Although the sale may now be reversed, it appears that the bonuses will not. Read more of this post

New year, new tricks: scams to steer clear of

New year, new tricks: scams to steer clear of

January 17, 2014 – 1:19PM

The new year has brought fresh warnings for consumers to be on the lookout for fraudsters who are trying various ways to separate us from our money. Many scams are old tricks – but updated with new twists or technology. Other cons have emerged in response to better detection and policing. Financial Fraud Action UK says fraudsters are targeting consumers directly through “deception” crimes – where they try to dupe people into parting with information – because the security features on payment cards have improved. The frauds listed here have been recorded in the UK – but criminals are ingenious and creative, so don’t think they won’t try them in Australia. Read on – and beware. Read more of this post

Accelerators: Getting up to speed; The biggest professional-training system you have never heard of

Accelerators: Getting up to speed; The biggest professional-training system you have never heard of

Jan 18th 2014 | From the print edition

IT FEELS LIKE some prayer meeting. Two middle-aged men start by telling the audience how important it is to pitch in. A booming voice announces the acts, greeted by loud cheers; then some enthusiastic young people jump onto the stage and start talking about their missions. One wants to help women sell their unused clothes and shoes; another to teach children to manage money more responsibly; a third to bring the reinsurance market online at last. Read more of this post

Hardware startups: Hacking Shenzhen; Why southern China is the best place in the world for a hardware innovator to be

Hardware startups: Hacking Shenzhen; Why southern China is the best place in the world for a hardware innovator to be

Jan 18th 2014 | From the print edition

OH NO, NOT another accelerator, you may think. But this one is different. On the tables are not just the obligatory laptops and smartphones but circuit boards, cables, screwdrivers and a few items which look only vaguely familiar. One resembles a very old mobile phone with an oddly shaped knob attached to it. Another, a set of small blocks with switches and buttons, calls to mind a disassembled mixer in a recording studio. Yet another might be the microphone of a computer headset, but is mounted on a pair of glasses.

Read more of this post

The Rise of China’s Innovation Machine

The Rise of China’s Innovation Machine

Once Mostly Known for Manufacturing Prowess, Chinese Tech Firms Are Challenging Market Leaders

JURO OSAWA in Hong Kong and PAUL MOZUR in Beijing

Jan. 16, 2014 3:00 p.m. ET

China has long been the factory floor that churns out popular gadgets for companies world-wide, but the country’s own technology products were rarely viewed as leading edge. Read more of this post

The founder and controlling shareholder of the company that makes equipment for China’s Beidou navigation system has been arrested on charges of misappropriation of funds

01.16.2014 17:04

Founder of Company that Makes Beidou Equipment Arrested for Taking Funds

Scandals in Chengdu expand to include He Yan, head of firm that is linked to China’s prized satellite navigation project

By staff reporter Liu Zhuozhe

(Beijing) – The founder and controlling shareholder of the company that makes equipment for China’s Beidou navigation system has been arrested on charges of misappropriation of funds. Gotecom Electronic Technology Co. Ltd. made the announcement regarding He Yan, 53, on January 15. The firm, which is based in Chengdu, in the southwestern province of Sichuan, said the episode is not affecting its business. Read more of this post

Private Chinese Companies Struggle to Invest in America, Expert Says

01.17.2014 11:47

Private Chinese Companies Struggle to Invest in America, Expert Says

Executive at company that advises Chinese firms says 90 out of 100 that were interested in going to U.S. saw their attempts fail

By intern reporter Ge Qing

(Beijing) – Investments by private companies into the United States rose last year, but one expert says a large number of firms are seeing their attempts to head to America fail. Read more of this post