Arrogance undoes the Turkish model; Erdogan’s high-handedness threatens country’s prosperity

January 8, 2014 6:33 pm

Arrogance undoes the Turkish model

Erdogan’s high-handedness threatens country’s prosperity

For much of the past decade, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s prime minister, has been hailed for the political and economic transformation he has wrought in his country. Since his moderate Islamist-rooted AK party came to power in 2002, Turkey has enjoyed political calm following years of unstable coalition governments. The Turkish economy has tripled in size in dollar terms, making it one of the world’s most dynamic emerging markets. When the Arab uprisings erupted in 2011, Turkey’s example of a democracy working in a Muslim majority state was lauded as a model for others in the region to follow.Yet today, Turkey is in political turmoil – and the international reputation Mr Erdogan has carved for himself lies in tatters. The latest blow has come in the shape of acorruption scandal affecting members of his government. Mr Erdogan’s response has been to defend himself by sabotaging the judicial investigation into his cronies, upturning the law. As a result, foreign investors are increasingly nervous at a time of crisis affecting Turkey’s neighbours in Syria and Iraq.

At the heart of Turkey’s problems is the authoritarian style Mr Erdogan has adopted since the AK party won its third election in 2011. Last summer the outside world caught a glimpse of this when demonstrations broke out in Istanbul in reaction to an unpopular reconstruction project. Mr Erdogan’s belligerent response – one demonstrator was killed and scores arrested – prompted those protests to spread nationwide.

However, those events were eclipsed last month when police arrested more than 50 people on suspicion of tender-rigging and bribery – including several close to the prime minister and his cabinet. In response, Mr Erdogan has redeployed the police conducting the investigation to other duties. This week alone, about 400 officers involved in the probe have been reassigned to other duties.

Mr Erdogan argues that the corruption investigation is politically motivated and led by Fethullah Gulen, a Muslim preacher who was previously allied with the AK party. Clearly, the two men are engaged in an ugly power struggle. But Mr Erdogan’s heavy-handed approach threatens to cast a shadow over the Turkish economy, his proudest achievement. Foreign investors are becoming unnerved by the dangerous erosion of the rule of law. This matters because Turkey’s large current account deficit is financed by hot money rather than long- term investment, leaving the economy vulnerable to the slightest perception of political risk.

Nor is this the only issue bothering investors. The domestic political uncertainty comes at a bad time, with Turkey facing other significant security challenges. Turkey is vulnerable to a spillover of violence from the Syrian civil war, where it has strongly backed the rebels fighting the Assad regime. That support for rebel forces has strained relations with Iran, Iraq and Russia. At the same time, relations with the US have been damaged by the Turkish government’s insinuations that America is orchestrating the current corruption probe.

Until now, Mr Erdogan’s main political goal has seemed to be to secure election to the Turkish presidency when the post becomes available in August. Given the current ructions over corruption allegations, it is far from certain this will happen. But in any event, the price Turkey is paying for his authoritarian style is immense. Mr Erdogan is demonstrating to the world that Turkey is a country with a shaky democracy, a flawed constitution and a diminishing number of allies. Whatever 2014 brings, it will be a long time before Turkey regains its reputation as a forward-looking, moderate Islamic state that others in the region would do well to follow.