Coup-Prone Thailand Looks to Army Chief to Break Deadlock

Coup-Prone Thailand Looks to Army Chief to Break Deadlock

By Amy Sawitta Lefevre on 12:09 pm January 11, 2014.
Bangkok. Standing inside one of Bangkok’s many military bases is a giant poster of Thai army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha in full dress uniform, along with a list of attributes. “Intelligent,” reads the poster. “Knowledgeable. Modern. Visionary.”As Bangkok braces for a “shut down” by anti-government protesters on Monday, and rumors multiply that yet another military coup is imminent, another adjective for General Prayuth springs to mind: opaque.

Paralyzing Bangkok is the latest bid in a two-month attempt by protesters to topple Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, whose brother, Thaksin, was overthrown in the last military coup in 2006.

Yingluck called a snap election for February 2, but this failed to mollify protesters, who want her government to resign in favor of an unelected people’s council to oversee political reform.

Many Thais believe the military will soon step in again to break the political deadlock, especially if next week’s citywide protests turn violent.

But Prayuth, 59, has remained noncommittal, brushing aside rumors of a military coup while deftly side-stepping an outright denial.

It wasn’t always so. Famous for irascible exchanges with the media, Prayuth once suggested coups were obsolete and slammed rumor-mongers for damaging the country.

As Thailand’s latest round of protests gathered pace, however, his public statements have fueled rather than scotched the rumors.

“I cannot confirm whether there will or will not be a coup,” he said on January 7.

Two weeks earlier, Prayuth likened the unrest between pro- and anti-government protesters to an intersection where he had the power to “turn the lights red” to stop traffic from left and right colliding.

“The odds of an all-out military coup remain lower for now but will increase as instability drags on,” said Christian Lewis, a Southeast Asia specialist at political risk consultants Eurasia Group. “Prayuth and the military will most likely intervene only if the police lose control of an eroding security situation.”

‘Not constructive’

Thousands of protesters have taken to Bangkok’s streets since November, accusing the Shinawatra family of corruption and nepotism.

The protests, which have drawn 200,000 people at their peak, have been mostly peaceful.

Four people, including two police officers, died of gunshot wounds and scores were injured after protesters clashed with police outside a stadium on December 26 while candidates registered for the election.

In broad terms, the current crisis pits the Thai elite, including military generals and royalists, and the educated middle-classes against supporters of twice-elected former prime minister Thaksin, who now lives in self-imposed exile to avoid jail for a graft conviction he says was politically motivated.

But with Yingluck clinging onto power and protesters refusing to back down, analysts say protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban, a former deputy prime minister, can only win with Prayuth’s backing.

That has sparked fears that protagonists might instigate an attack on protesters during next week’s rallies in hopes of provoking army intervention.

But senior officers told Reuters the military is reluctant to see a repeat of the September 2006 coup, which Prayuth helped execute as a deputy regional commander and plunged the country into years of turmoil.

“Prayuth is aware that dealing with the problem by staging a coup is not constructive and, after a while, the same problems will come back again,” said army spokesman Colonel Werachon Sukhondhadhpatipak.

Born in northeast Thailand, now a stronghold for Thaksin supporters, Prayuth has a reputation for “hard-headed decisiveness”, wrote Anthony Davis, a Thailand-based analyst at security consulting firm IHS-Jane’s, after Prayuth was appointed in October 2010.

“An officer of polished social skills, he has become a regular visitor to the palace, suggesting that in royal circles he is seen as a vital figure to ensure the future stability of both the nation and the monarchy,” said Davis.

Prayuth also established a cordial relationship with Yingluck after her election the following year. He has repeatedly said he wants the military to remain politically neutral.

Yet Prayuth, who is a few months shy of mandatory retirement, commands a highly politicized army. It has played a pivotal role in a country that has seen 18 successful or attempted coups in the past 81 years.

“Prayuth was involved in a coup once before and knows that after a coup come many obstacles,” said Boonyakiat Karavekphan, a political analyst at Ramkamhaeng University in Bangkok.

“He has shown no political ambitions but even if he did, staging a coup today is much more difficult than in 2006. Thailand is a different country and he risks upsetting the politically awakened masses,” he said, referring to Thaksin’s supporters who would be outraged if his sister’s government was overthrown.

‘Watermelon soldiers’

Prayuth faces another dilemma from some rank-and-file soldiers in green uniforms dubbed “watermelons” – green on the outside with red, pro-Thaksin, sympathies on the inside.

Fissures within the army were evident during a bloody April and May 2010 crackdown on pro-Thaksin red shirts in Bangkok who were demanding fresh elections and the resignation of pro-establishment Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.

Some soldiers openly sympathized with red-shirted protesters, tipping off the group’s leaders ahead of a planned army operation, unnerving the top brass and sapping troop morale. Ensuing clashes between soldiers and anti-government protesters killed 91 people. More than 2,000 were wounded.

“Last time the objective was to protect the Abhisit government which many soldiers disliked. But this time any decision by the generals will be made carefully and to protect national interests and all sides,” said army spokesman Werachon.

“Of course, there are some ‘watermelon’ soldiers but they know that, as an army, we have to present a united front.”

Compounding the situation is the complex web of loyalties within the army establishment.

Prayuth belongs to a powerful clique that includes retired former defense minister General Prawit Wongsuwan and former army chief General Anupong Paochinda, who both despise Thaksin.

A December 13 Reuters report revealed both men secretly back protest leader Suthep and his ambitions to eradicate Thaksin’s influence from Thailand. Prayuth is pulled between his loyalty to Anupong and Prawit, and his desire to restore the army’s image after the 2010 clashes.

When Thailand was hit by its worst floods in decades in 2011 he went on a media blitz to promote the army by sending soldiers to help civilians.

Bangkok Braces for Blockade as Protesters Push to Oust Yingluck

Thailand’s government is preparing to deploy 20,000 security personnel to counter a plan by protesters to create traffic chaos in central Bangkok in a push to force Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra from office.

Authorities are seeking to put enough security in place to thwart what anti-government forces are calling the “Bangkok shutdown” while avoiding clashes. Protests calling for Yingluck’s administration to be replaced with an unelected council have dragged on for more than two months and sparked violence that left eight people dead.

“People should go about their normal lives,” Surapong Tovichakchaikul, the minister tasked with handling the government response, said yesterday in a national television address. “Demonstrations on Jan. 13 shouldn’t cause any chaos as protesters confirm that they will gather without weapons.”

The protesters, who have vowed to disrupt elections scheduled for Feb. 2, have told civil servants and soldiers that they must choose a side in the conflict. Their leaders’ refusal to negotiate with Yingluck, and mounting legal cases against government efforts to change the constitution and implement spending plans, have stoked rumors that the military may stage a coup, which the army chief hasn’t ruled out.

“The renewed protests and ‘shutdown’ are about furthering defections from state agencies and weakening the caretaker government’s position,” said Michael Connors, an associate professor at the University of Nottingham, Malaysia Campus. “It is also about paving the way for an imposed people’s council and ensuring that no government will emerge from the proposed elections.”

‘Good People’

The protesters are led by Suthep Thaugsuban, a former power broker with the opposition Democrat Party, which is boycotting the vote. He says electoral democracy should be suspended until his council of “good people” can reform politics and remove what he says is the corrupting influence of Yingluck’s family.

Allies of Yingluck’s brother, Thaksin Shinawatra, have won the past five elections, including two since his ouster in a 2006 military coup, enraging royalists who accuse him of being a threat to Thailand’s monarchy. The protesters say Yingluck’s government is illegitimate and run from abroad by Thaksin, who faces a two-year jail term for corruption if he returns in a case he says was politically motivated.

Yingluck has refused to resign, arguing that the almost 16 million people who voted for her in 2011 deserve to have a say in the nation’s future. She has offered to hold talks with Suthep, which he has rejected.

Seeking Intervention

It is “not realistic” to think the Bangkok protest itself will exert enough pressure on Yingluck to force her to step down, said Michael Montesano, a visiting research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore. “There has to be some form of intervention for her to be crippled,” he said, noting the protest was designed “clearly to provoke a crisis.”

“Whether the provocation comes through a violent incident that requires military intervention, whether it leads to some sort of chaos that brings the police in or some judicial coup, I can’t say,” Montesano said.

Thailand has had nine coups and more than 20 prime ministers since 1946. Army Chief Prayuth Chan-Ocha has said in recent weeks that the “door” to a coup is neither open nor closed, raising speculation that the army may step in if protests become violent.

“People are scared of something that hasn’t taken place yet,” he said Jan. 7. “Don’t be scared if you can’t see it. Everything must happen for a reason.”

Economic Cost

The demonstrations could cost the economy as much as 1 billion baht ($30 million) a day, according to a survey released this week by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce. Tourism accounts for about 10 percent of Thailand’s $366 billion economy, according to central bank data.

Global funds pulled a net $3.9 billion from Thai bonds and stocks since the beginning of November, official data show, contributing to the baht’s 3.5 percent decline during the period. The baht reached 33.148 on Jan. 6, the weakest level since 2010, and traded at 33 per dollar yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Next week’s protest “could be the next catalyst for weakness in the currency and Thai assets, particularly if it gets violent,” Sacha Tihanyi, a Hong Kong-based strategist at Scotiabank, said in an interview yesterday. “Further political unrest raises the probability of additional foreign selling of Thai assets, constrains growth and increases the chance of additional monetary easing from the Bank of Thailand.”

‘Very Cautious’

The SET Index (SET) of shares slumped 13 percent since the end of October, when the protest began, and had its lowest close on Jan. 3 since August 2012.

“Political risk is extremely high and investors are very cautious as it’s very hard to predict how and when this turmoil will be resolved,” Tawatchai Asawapornchai, research manager at Globlex Securities Co., said yesterday by phone. “If the political crisis is resolved quickly, stocks will shoot through the roof. The only hindrance to Thai stock market is the political deadlock.”

Government offices, commercial banks and financial markets will open on Jan. 13, Foreign Minister Surapongsaid yesterday. The U.S. embassy advised U.S. citizens in the city to keep a week’s supply of cash and a two-week supply of food, water and medicine, according to its website.

‘Bangkok Shutdown’

Protesters plan to set up stages at seven locations, five major intersections in Bangkok’s central business districts, one at Lat Phrao in the north of the city, and one outside the Government Complex at Chaeng Wattana, near Don Mueang Airport.

The protests won’t paralyze the city because the subway, elevated railway and ferries will operate normally, Transport Minister Chadchart Sittipunt said Jan. 9. The government has set up 36 additional parking lots that can hold 18,000 vehicles to help people who commute to the inner-city by car.

“We don’t expect they will close many roads, but we are prepared,” Sittipunt said. He encouraged tourists to use the Airport Rail Link, which connects Suvarnabhumi International Airport with stations in the city.

Tourist arrivals may drop to 2.1 million in January, from an earlier estimate of 2.5 million, as carriers including Singapore Airlines Ltd. cancel some flights amid a drop in demand, according to the Tourism Council of Thailand. The country may still meet its full-year target to attract 29.9 million tourists if the protests don’t turn violent, Piyaman Tejapaibul, the council’s president, said on Jan. 9.

Suthep has said the anti-Thaksin demonstrators won’t target either of Bangkok’s two airports, as they did in 2008 when an eight-day siege of Suvarnabhumi ended with the ouster of a Thaksin-linked government. Bangkok’s Don Meuang airport, and U-Tapao airport near Pattaya south of the capital, have been prepared as back-ups, Chadchart said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Chris Blake in Bangkok at cblake28@bloomberg.net; Suttinee Yuvejwattana in Bangkok at suttinee1@bloomberg.net