Thailand moves towards the brink; Opposition to Yingluck must step back from violence

January 13, 2014 7:21 pm

Thailand moves towards the brink

Opposition to Yingluck must step back from violence

The world has in recent years become accustomed to the outbreak of mass public demonstrations against autocrats and elites. The Middle East has had the Arab uprisings in Egypt, Syria and Tunisia. Russia has witnessed repeated street demonstrations against the rule of President Vladimir Putin. At the end of last year, thousands of protesters in Kiev called for Ukraine’s authoritarian president, Viktor Yanukovich, to step down.Now we are witnessing huge anti-government protests in the Thai capital Bangkok. But in one respect these protests are unlike the others. This is because in Thailand the demonstrators are not demanding more democracy but less. Since 2001 the Thai electorate has repeatedly voted Thaksin Shinawatra and his proxies, including his sister Yingluck, into power. Yet on Monday, Bangkok’s commercial district swarmed with protesters demanding the ousting of Ms Yingluck’s democratically elected government and the replacement of parliament by an unelected “people’s council”.

Thailand is no stranger to upheavals of this sort. It has suffered 18 military coups since the end of the absolute monarchy in 1932. But the current attempt by the opposition Democrat party to shut down Bangkok threatens a serious new escalation of unrest. The opposition, led by Suthep Thaugsuban, refuses to back down in its drive to topple Ms Yingluck from power and boycott next month’s national elections. International Crisis Group, the non-governmental organisation, warned this week that “the risk of violence across wide swaths of the country is growing and significant”.

Such violence, were it allowed to happen, would have serious repercussions across the region. Thailand was one of the earliest Asian nations to adopt democracy and is southeast Asia’s second-largest economy. As neighbouring regimes such as Vietnam and Cambodia tighten their domestic grip, Thailand remains one of the few free countries in the region. That reputation may now be at risk.

The stand-off has its roots in the long-running political challenge posed by Mr Thaksin and the Pheu Thai party to the Bangkok establishment. After he became prime minister a decade ago, Mr Thaksin, a telecommunications magnate, succeeded in mobilising widespread support among the northern rural poor. Many farmers were drawn to the Thaksin government after it offered cheap, universal healthcare and rice subsidies. As a result, the opposition Democrats – allied to the military and judicial establishment – have not won an election in more than a decade. They have therefore lost faith in the electoral process and want to derail next month’s general election.

We should be under no illusions about Mr Thaksin. The plutocrat is a controversial and highly polarising figure. He is living in exile in Dubai to avoid a jail sentence in Thailand on corruption charges and abuse of office. The present unrest was largely triggered after Ms Yingluck, his sister, attempted to push a sweeping amnesty through parliament last year that would have meant Mr Thaksin’s conviction was overthrown. The temptation of many outsiders has long been to say to government and opposition leaders: “A plague on both your houses.”

However, political leaders on all sides in Thailand must now find a way through the debacle. The starting point must be to recognise that Ms Yingluck’s government is democratically elected and is willing to contest an election next month. The opposition should therefore commit itself to the electoral process and abandon violence.

Once elections are held, a dialogue should begin to put Thailand’s constitution on a sounder footing. Failure to achieve this would damage Thailand’s status in the region – and beyond.