The economic fallout from the sinking of the ferry Sewol seems more serious and far-reaching than was initially thought

Updated : 2014-05-11 16:04

Fallout from disaster

The economic fallout from the sinking of the ferry Sewol seems more serious and far-reaching than was initially thought.
According to a report submitted by the finance ministry to a meeting chaired by President Park Geun-hye Friday, sales at department stores dropped 1.9 percent in April. At large discount stores, the performance was even worse with sales dipping 9.8 percent.
The impact of the unprecedented catastrophe that took place on April 16 is even more certain, considering that sales at department stores declined 0.2 percent in the fourth week of April after rising 4.5 percent in the first week.
Public cultural and leisure activities also weakened significantly. During the fourth week of April, the number of theatergoers fell 29 percent from a year ago, and that of amusement park visitors was down a whopping 68 percent.
So the government’s package of preemptive measures to address the problem of shrinking consumption following the tragic incident is timely and appropriate.
Specifically, the government will add 7.8 trillion won to its expenditure in the second quarter, bringing the percentage of government budget spending for the first half to 57 percent, up from a prior projection of 55 percent.
About 75 billion won in soft loans will also be offered to small businesses engaged in tourism, transportation and lodging, and public institutions will be encouraged to frontload their budget spending and investment plans.
Strategy and Finance Minister Hyun Oh-seok was right to say that the measures were needed to prevent the maritime disaster from putting out the embers of the current economic recovery. And the relatively weak intensity of the package is understandable, given the difficulty to gauge the impact of the ferry calamity on the economy at the moment.
But it will be necessary for the government to come up with stronger revitalization measures after monitoring economic activities more closely, given a caution by Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju-yeol that the Sewol tragedy may continue to depress consumer spending until the end of June.
That’s because the psychological impact on the public from the ferry sinking is greater than ever before, especially because of the fact that most of the victims were high school students.
What’s needed now is for the government to encourage people to return to normal consumption although it’s necessary to keep in mind the painful lessons from the calamity and redress all evil practices entrenched in society.
It’s none other than the working-class people who will be hit hardest by the protracted economic downturn.

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Kee Koon Boon (“KB”) is the co-founder and director of HERO Investment Management which provides specialized fund management and investment advisory services to the ARCHEA Asia HERO Innovators Fund (www.heroinnovator.com), the only Asian SMID-cap tech-focused fund in the industry. KB is an internationally featured investor rooted in the principles of value investing for over a decade as a fund manager and analyst in the Asian capital markets who started his career at a boutique hedge fund in Singapore where he was with the firm since 2002 and was also part of the core investment committee in significantly outperforming the index in the 10-year-plus-old flagship Asian fund. He was also the portfolio manager for Asia-Pacific equities at Korea’s largest mutual fund company. Prior to setting up the H.E.R.O. Innovators Fund, KB was the Chief Investment Officer & CEO of a Singapore Registered Fund Management Company (RFMC) where he is responsible for listed Asian equity investments. KB had taught accounting at the Singapore Management University (SMU) as a faculty member and also pioneered the 15-week course on Accounting Fraud in Asia as an official module at SMU. KB remains grateful and honored to be invited by Singapore’s financial regulator Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to present to their top management team about implementing a world’s first fact-based forward-looking fraud detection framework to bring about benefits for the capital markets in Singapore and for the public and investment community. KB also served the community in sharing his insights in writing articles about value investing and corporate governance in the media that include Business Times, Straits Times, Jakarta Post, Manual of Ideas, Investopedia, TedXWallStreet. He had also presented in top investment, banking and finance conferences in America, Italy, Sydney, Cape Town, HK, China. He has trained CEOs, entrepreneurs, CFOs, management executives in business strategy & business model innovation in Singapore, HK and China.

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