Abenomics Risks Deepening Global Financial Turmoil, HSBC Says

Abenomics Risks Deepening Global Financial Turmoil, HSBC Says

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s policies aimed at ending deflation could distort trade, drive up asset prices in other nations and lead to global financial instability, according to HSBC Holdings Plc.

“The world seemingly has yet to find a way of coping with periods during which the Japanese have attempted to kick-start their economy,” Stephen King, the London-based chief economist at HSBC, wrote in a research report today. “The big risk for the years ahead lies in a mix of rapidly widening current account deficits, hot money inflows and a proliferation of capital controls.”

Moves by Japan to revive growth have raised concern over a so-called currency war as central bankers from New Zealand to Norway signal they’re ready to stem exchange rate swings. Group of 20 finance chiefs this month signaled Abe has scope to keep stimulating the economy as long as officials stop endorsing the yen’s more than 10 percent slide in the past three months.

“If Mr. Abe’s policies work primarily through a weaker yen, Japan’s main export competitors will find themselves in the firing line,” King wrote. “The most vulnerable include Germany, South Korea and China.”

The Bank of Korea said on Feb. 14 that the “expansionary” stance of the Japanese government is among risks for South Korea’s economy.

Investors are cheering Abe’s brand of economics, with the Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average advancing for 12 weeks through Feb. 1, the longest winning streak since 1959. The benchmark fell from a four-year high today after Italian elections reignited concern the region’s debt crisis will hurt financial markets.

Abe has pledged to use monetary easing, fiscal stimulus and growth-boosting policies to lift the nation out of more than a decade of price falls.

“Mr Abe’s policies may ultimately deliver the goods but there is a very good chance that, instead, his measures will only lead to further global financial instability, in turn triggering an increase in economic nationalism,” King wrote in the report.

To contact the reporter on this story: Sharon Chen in Singapore at schen462@bloomberg.net

About bambooinnovator
Kee Koon Boon (“KB”) is the co-founder and director of HERO Investment Management which provides specialized fund management and investment advisory services to the ARCHEA Asia HERO Innovators Fund (www.heroinnovator.com), the only Asian SMID-cap tech-focused fund in the industry. KB is an internationally featured investor rooted in the principles of value investing for over a decade as a fund manager and analyst in the Asian capital markets who started his career at a boutique hedge fund in Singapore where he was with the firm since 2002 and was also part of the core investment committee in significantly outperforming the index in the 10-year-plus-old flagship Asian fund. He was also the portfolio manager for Asia-Pacific equities at Korea’s largest mutual fund company. Prior to setting up the H.E.R.O. Innovators Fund, KB was the Chief Investment Officer & CEO of a Singapore Registered Fund Management Company (RFMC) where he is responsible for listed Asian equity investments. KB had taught accounting at the Singapore Management University (SMU) as a faculty member and also pioneered the 15-week course on Accounting Fraud in Asia as an official module at SMU. KB remains grateful and honored to be invited by Singapore’s financial regulator Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to present to their top management team about implementing a world’s first fact-based forward-looking fraud detection framework to bring about benefits for the capital markets in Singapore and for the public and investment community. KB also served the community in sharing his insights in writing articles about value investing and corporate governance in the media that include Business Times, Straits Times, Jakarta Post, Manual of Ideas, Investopedia, TedXWallStreet. He had also presented in top investment, banking and finance conferences in America, Italy, Sydney, Cape Town, HK, China. He has trained CEOs, entrepreneurs, CFOs, management executives in business strategy & business model innovation in Singapore, HK and China.

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