Thailand’s Revolution; The opposition has become fanatical and self-deluded

December 9, 2013, 11:53 a.m. ET

Thailand’s Revolution

The opposition has become fanatical and self-deluded.

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra dissolved Thailand’s Parliament Monday and announced that she would lead the ruling Puea Thai Party into elections in early February. This is a prudent move to pull the circuit-breaker on protests aimed at replacing the elected government with a “people’s council.” Earlier this month rioters provoked clashes that left at least three people dead, while the government won international praise for its restraint.Opposition Democrat Party members of parliament announced Sunday that they would resign in sympathy with the protesters, a shocking development in a constitutional democracy. Legally Ms. Yingluck could have continued to govern. But with a coalition of royalist and antidemocratic forces gathering momentum on the streets of Bangkok, she took the responsible course.

An election should force the demagogues who want to “root out the regime” to confront again the fact that they represent a minority of Thais. Even leading Democrats acknowledge that Puea Thai is likely to win another solid majority in parliament. The political conflict will almost certainly resume then, but Ms. Yingluck should emerge with a stronger mandate to reform the military-dictated constitution and remove unelected institutions put in place after the 2006 coup.

The protest movement, led by former Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban, cites a long charge sheet of supposed government abuses. But behind the high-minded facade, this is a simple struggle for power and the spoils that come with it. The Democrat Party, which last won an election in 1992, is aligned with the urban elites, while Puea Thai and its precursors channeled development projects and handouts to rural Thais. One can deplore the cronyism on both sides, but the solution is the creation of stronger institutions.

Instead Mr. Suthep demands the complete overthrow of the democratic system. On Monday night he vowed to wage a “people’s revolution” to overthrow “dictatorship of the majority.” He has called for the king to appoint a new leader, who would then presumably choose the people’s council of “good people.”

The Democrat Party may follow Mr. Suthep’s lead and boycott the February elections. But it cannot hope to win at the barricades either. Rural Thais who support Puea Thai showed in 2010 that they can be just as militant as the current protesters, and they are more numerous.

The only scenarios in which Mr. Suthep comes out on top involve either the military or the palace or both. But on Monday Army Chief Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha reiterated that the military will stay out of politics. And while King Bhumibol has intervened to stop civil strife before, he has ruled out choosing a new leader. Last Thursday the king appeared extremely frail as he gave his birthday speech, which only obliquely referred to the political turmoil.

That may not stop Mr. Suthep and the Democrats. Most remarkable about the current situation is their capacity for self-delusion. They dismiss anyone who supports the government as either ignorant or in the pay of Ms. Yingluck and her brother, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Mr. Suthep said on Monday that there is no room for compromise with his enemies, no middle ground between good and evil.

The inability to discuss certain matters regarding Thailand openly made this intolerance possible. The country will continue to pay the price as Mr. Suthep defies the will of the majority. It’s hard to escape the suspicion that a revolution is coming in Thai politics, but it won’t be one to the opposition’s liking.

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Kee Koon Boon (“KB”) is the co-founder and director of HERO Investment Management which provides specialized fund management and investment advisory services to the ARCHEA Asia HERO Innovators Fund (www.heroinnovator.com), the only Asian SMID-cap tech-focused fund in the industry. KB is an internationally featured investor rooted in the principles of value investing for over a decade as a fund manager and analyst in the Asian capital markets who started his career at a boutique hedge fund in Singapore where he was with the firm since 2002 and was also part of the core investment committee in significantly outperforming the index in the 10-year-plus-old flagship Asian fund. He was also the portfolio manager for Asia-Pacific equities at Korea’s largest mutual fund company. Prior to setting up the H.E.R.O. Innovators Fund, KB was the Chief Investment Officer & CEO of a Singapore Registered Fund Management Company (RFMC) where he is responsible for listed Asian equity investments. KB had taught accounting at the Singapore Management University (SMU) as a faculty member and also pioneered the 15-week course on Accounting Fraud in Asia as an official module at SMU. KB remains grateful and honored to be invited by Singapore’s financial regulator Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to present to their top management team about implementing a world’s first fact-based forward-looking fraud detection framework to bring about benefits for the capital markets in Singapore and for the public and investment community. KB also served the community in sharing his insights in writing articles about value investing and corporate governance in the media that include Business Times, Straits Times, Jakarta Post, Manual of Ideas, Investopedia, TedXWallStreet. He had also presented in top investment, banking and finance conferences in America, Italy, Sydney, Cape Town, HK, China. He has trained CEOs, entrepreneurs, CFOs, management executives in business strategy & business model innovation in Singapore, HK and China.

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