News versus Sentiment: Comparing Textual Processing Approaches for Predicting Stock Returns

News versus Sentiment: Comparing Textual Processing Approaches for Predicting Stock Returns

Steven L. Heston University of Maryland – Department of Finance

Nitish Ranjan Sinha Board of Governers of the Federal Reserve System

September 4, 2013
Robert H. Smith School Research Paper

Abstract: 
This paper uses a dataset of over 900,000 news stories to test whether news can predict stock returns. It finds that firms with no news have distinctly different average future returns than firms with news. We measure sentiment with the Harvard psychosocial dictionary used by Tetlock, Saar-Tsechansky, and Macskassy (2008), the financial dictionary of Loughran and McDonald (2011), and a proprietary Thomson-Reuters neural network. Simpler processing techniques predict short-term returns that are quickly reversed, while more sophisticated techniques predict larger and more persistent returns. Conforming previous research, daily news predicts stock returns for only 1-2 days. But weekly news predicts stock returns for a quarter year. Positive news stories increase stock returns quickly, but negative stories have a long-delayed reaction.

Competition for Talent Under Performance Manipulation: CEOs on Steroids

Competition for Talent Under Performance Manipulation: CEOs on Steroids

Ivan Marinovic Stanford Graduate School of Business

Paul Povel University of Houston – Department of Finance, C.T. Bauer College of Business

October 22, 2013
Rock Center for Corporate Governance at Stanford University Working Paper No. 160

Abstract: 
We study how competition for talent affects CEO compensation, taking into consideration that CEO decisions are not contractible, CEO skills or talent are not observable, and CEOs can manipulate performance as measured by outsiders. Firms compete to appoint a CEO by offering contracts that generate large rents for the CEO. However, the incentive problems restrict how such rents can be created. We derive the equilibrium compensation contract offered by the firms, and we describe how the outcome is affected. Competition for talent leads to excessively high-powered performance compensation. Competition for talent can thus explain the increase in pay-performance sensitivity over the last few decades, and the extremely high-powered compensation packages observed in some markets. Given the high-powered incentive compensation, CEOs exert inefficiently high levels of effort and also distort the performance measure excessively. If the cost of manipulating performance is low, competition for talent may reduce the overall surplus, compared with a setup in which one firm negotiates with one potential CEO (and the firm extracts the rents). We discuss possible remedies, including regulatory limits to incentive compensation.

Bill Ackman’s ‘Moby-Dick’ Bet Against Herbalife

Bill Ackman’s ‘Moby-Dick’ Bet Against Herbalife

Depending on whom you ask, Herbalife Ltd. is either a pyramid scheme that preys on the poor or the innovative manufacturer of dietary supplements favored by a former secretary of state. Bill Ackman, a member of the first camp, admitted in an interview with Bloomberg TV to losing $400 million to $500 million since his Pershing Square Capital Management LP hedge fund started short selling Herbalife shares about a year ago. Ackman also said that this wasn’t “just a trade” for him — he promised to keep betting against the company “to the end of the earth,” a phrase reminiscent of Captain Ahab’s vow that he would chase the white whale “round perdition’s flames before I give him up.” Read more of this post

Hong Kong Confirms City’s First Human Case of Bird Flu

Hong Kong Confirms City’s First Human Case of Bird Flu

Hong Kong has reported its first confirmed human infection of H7N9 avian influenza, the strain of the virus that has killed 45 people in China this year. The victim is a 36-year-old Indonesian domestic helper, who had traveled to the neighboring mainland Chinese city of Shenzhen, where she bought and slaughtered a chicken, Hong Kong’s government said yesterday in statement. Read more of this post

Billionaire Seeks to Double Cairn Oil Output: Corporate India

Billionaire Seeks to Double Cairn Oil Output: Corporate India

Billionaire Anil Agarwal has asked Cairn India Ltd. (CAIR), which enjoys the highest profit margin among the top Asian oil companies, to explore ways to double output as his mining business in the South Asian nation founders. Cairn India “has a mission” to accelerate its target to 400,000 barrels a day from about 200,000 barrels, Chief Executive Officer P. Elango said. The company, which possesses about $3 billion of cash, plans to drill 450 new wells in its fields in the northwestern state of Rajasthan, he said. Read more of this post

Delhi’s rubble-strewn Connaught Place mirrors Congress’ election struggle

Delhi’s rubble-strewn Connaught Place mirrors Congress’ election struggle

DelhiChiefMinister

Delhi’s Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit gestures as she shows her ink-marked finger after casting her vote at a polling station during the state assembly elections in New Delhi December 4, 2013.

Wednesday, December 4, 2013 – 18:11

Reuters

NEW DELHI – The broken paving stones and exposed cables that mar the neo-Georgian grandeur of India’s prime shopping precinct give a glimpse into why the ruling Congress party might struggle to hold on to the capital Delhi in a local election on Wednesday. Read more of this post

High-End Motorcycles Rev Up Sales in India; Harley, Yamaha, Ducati See Untapped Market Among Affluent Indians

High-End Motorcycles Rev Up Sales in India

Harley, Yamaha, Ducati See Untapped Market Among Affluent Indians

SANTANU CHOUDHURY

Dec. 3, 2013 7:17 p.m. ET

Indian roads have been getting a little bit louder these days as affluent Indians, longtime fans of designer watches and the Mercedes-Benz DAI.XE -2.12% sedan, are starting to snap up high-end motorcycles. Despite a nationwide slowdown, more Indians are mounting large, noisy motorcycles asHarley-Davidson Inc., HOG -0.48% Yamaha Motor Co. 7272.TO -1.74% , Ducati Motor Holding SpA and others set up shop in the subcontinent, hoping to capture its first generation of elite easy riders. Read more of this post

How to win at leapfrog: India has a unique opportunity to avoid repeating other countries’ mistakes

How to win at leapfrog

India has a unique opportunity to avoid repeating other countries’ mistakes. Khosla Ventures founding partner Vinod Khosla argues that the “leapfrogging” mind-set requires policies that foster innovation not imitation.

December 2013 | byVinod Khosla

There’s a general tendency in life to want to do what others have done. It’s an understandable impulse but shortsighted. One of the great things about being a relatively poor, trailing, but rising power like India is that you have the opportunity to see what you want to imitate—and, more important, what you want to skip. Read more of this post

India allows greater flexibility for pension fund investments

India allows greater flexibility for pension fund investments

Wednesday, December 4, 2013 – 18:16

Reuters

MUMBAI – India will allow a portion of the country’s US$80 billion in employee pensions to be invested in a wider array of debt, including short-term bills, in a bid to boost returns and further develop domestic bond markets. Fund managers handling money on behalf of the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) will also be given more flexibility to invest in corporate bonds, according to new rules from the Labour Ministry marking the first overhaul of investment rules in a decade. Read more of this post

India Shadow Banker Fights to Keep Empire Built on Poor

India Shadow Banker Fights to Keep Empire Built on Poor

Tucked away on a hillock in the suburbs of Mumbai, a missile-proof bunker twice the size of the U.S. White House holds the key to a $3.8 billion puzzle. The underground vault below a data-storage center is in a compound watched by 84 security cameras and surrounded by a 3.7-meter (12-foot) wall topped with barbed wire, Bloomberg Markets magazine will report in its January issue. The 66,600 fire-resistant metal boxes inside contain 200 million documents with the personal information of 30 million investors in Subrata Roy’s group of companies known as Sahara India Pariwar. That’s more than the combined population of Australia and New Zealand. Read more of this post

Patriarchal India challenged by its emboldened women

December 3, 2013 1:28 pm

Patriarchal India challenged by its emboldened women

By Amy Kazmin in New Delhi

Editor’s arrest reflects refusal to keep silent about harassment

It was a moment many Indians thought they would never see – a moment that must have made many powerful men shudder. On Saturday, the country was gripped by the dramatic night-time arrest of Tarun Tejpal, a celebrated editor of a muckraking magazine who has been accused of sexually assaulting one of his young female journalists in a hotel lift. Read more of this post

Reimagining India: A conversation with Naveen Tewari; The founder and chief executive of InMobi explains why changing the expectations and traditions of Indian society is critical to driving economic growth

Reimagining India: A conversation with Naveen Tewari

The founder and chief executive of InMobi explains why changing the expectations and traditions of Indian society is critical to driving economic growth.

December 2013

Changing society’s expectations

Creating global companies

Solving big problems

Naveen Tewari founded SMS-based search service mKhoj in 2007 before pivoting its business model to the emerging field of mobile-device advertising. Renamed InMobi in 2009, the company’s technology is now used by almost 700 million people across more than 160 countries and was named one of MIT Technology Review’s 50 most disruptive companies in 2013. In this video interview, Tewari explains why Indian attitudes toward entrepreneurs and start-ups must change if the country is to fully benefit from the technology sector’s ability not only to drive economic growth but to tackle India’s most pressing problems. What follows is an edited transcript of his remarks. Read more of this post

Sugar-Pricing Plan Seen Reviving Nation’s Mills: Corporate India

Sugar-Pricing Plan Seen Reviving Nation’s Mills: Corporate India

Sugar mills in India, the world’s largest grower after Brazil, are banking on a proposal to link the price of cane to the sweetener to reverse record losses. An accord to tie cane prices to sugar rates from the 2014-15 season would be “historic” and encourage banks to extend credit to factories in Uttar Pradesh, India’s biggest cane producer, said Abinash Verma, director general of the Indian Sugar Mills Association. Mills agreed to resume output on Dec. 1 after a two-week protest shutdown when the Uttar Pradesh government said it would consider the pricing plan. Read more of this post

Indonesia’s Investment Challenge; Attracting long-term capital can ease the pain from a Fed taper

Indonesia’s Investment Challenge

Attracting long-term capital can ease the pain from a Fed taper.

Updated Dec. 2, 2013 4:06 p.m. ET

An end to America’s quantitative easing is more remote now that Janet Yellen has been tapped to succeed Ben Bernanke at the Federal Reserve. So it’s a pleasant surprise to discover that some Asian policy makers remain chastened by the capital flight they suffered this summer when investors feared tapering was imminent. Case in point: Bank of Indonesia Deputy Governor Perry Warjiyo. Read more of this post

Rupiah Falls as Companies Take Advantage of Rally to Buy Dollars

Rupiah Falls as Companies Take Advantage of Rally to Buy Dollars

Indonesia’s rupiah declined on speculation local companies are taking advantage of yesterday’s biggest rally since September to buy dollars at a more favorable exchange rate. The rupiah surged 1.6 percent yesterday after official data showed the trade balance swung to a $42.4 million surplus in October, compared with the $775 million deficit estimated by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. A report showed yesterday that the U.S. Institute for Supply Management’s factory index climbed to the highest in more than two years, boosting prospects the Federal Reserve will start paring its monetary stimulus. Read more of this post

After massive economic stimulus, BOJ under pressure to do more

After massive economic stimulus, BOJ under pressure to do more

8:52am EST

By Leika Kihara, Yoshifumi Takemoto and Sumio Ito

TOKYO (Reuters) – A year into “Abenomics,” it was not supposed to be like this for the Bank of Japan. The central bank, its boss hand-picked by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, shot the first, and so far most successful, arrow from Abe’s quiver of aggressive policies to pull the world’s third-biggest economy out of almost two decades of deflation and lackluster growth. Read more of this post

Cool Japan Led by Ex-Carlyle Manager Promotes Sushi to J-Pop

Cool Japan Led by Ex-Carlyle Manager Promotes Sushi to J-Pop

From sushi and ramen noodles to manga comics and pop music, Japan is promoting products it deems cool through a state-backed fund led by a former Carlyle Group LP (CG) manager. Cool Japan Fund Inc., which was formed last week with 57.5 billion yen ($560 million), is considering buying television channels and investing in retail property abroad to showcase the nation’s cuisine, fashion and animation, Chief Investment Officer Koichiro Yoshizaki said in an interview on Nov. 28. Read more of this post

Japan Wages Must Rise for Abenomics Success: GS Matsui

Japan Wages Must Rise for Abenomics Success: GS Matsui

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s success in reviving the world’s third-largest economy hinges on wages rising more than the Bank of Japan’s 2 percent inflation target, according to the investment strategist the premier has invoked as an authority on the country’s need for growth. “We need to see wages beat the cost of living here,” Kathy Matsui, chief Japan strategist for Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said in an interview at the investment bank’s Tokyo offices today. Read more of this post

Japan’s Secrets Bill Turns Journalists Into Terrorists

Japan’s Secrets Bill Turns Journalists Into Terrorists

Shinzo Abe owes Xi Jinping a debt of gratitude.

The buzz in Japanese cyberspace is that Chinese President Xi is wagging the dog by declaring a controversial “air-defense identification zone” across the East China Sea. The move has drastically ramped up tensions with Japan and the U.S., both of which have blatantly disregarded Beijing’s unilateral edict. According to one prevailing theory, Xi is whipping up an international storm to change the subject domestically away from income inequality, official corruption and China’s blackening skies. Read more of this post

Nomura to Punish Tipsters as Japan FSA Signals End to Crackdown

Nomura to Punish Tipsters as Japan FSA Signals End to Crackdown

Nomura Holdings Inc. (8604) said employees who leaked insider information on client transactions three years ago will be punished as the regulator signals an end to a crackdown that roiled Japan’s largest brokerage last year. Nomura will take “strict action” against the two employees who gave confidential data to three asset management firms, Kenji Yamashita, a spokesman in Tokyo, said yesterday, without giving details. Japan’s securities watchdog recommended fining the funds, including a unit of Nippon Life Insurance Co., for trading on the tips. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) also said yesterday that a former employee leaked information in 2010. Read more of this post

Takeda Breaks Tradition in Naming Outsider as Heir Apparent

Takeda Breaks Tradition in Naming Outsider as Heir Apparent

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. (4502), the more than 230-year-old Japanese drugmaker, is starting to make a practice of breaking with tradition. The drugmaker last week named Christophe Weber, a French national who has never worked at Takeda, as chief operating officer and the planned successor to CEO Yasuchika Hasegawa. Weber would be the first non-Japanese to lead the company and among the first outsiders brought in to helm a major Japanese company. Read more of this post

World’s Biggest Pension Fund Sees Japan Fail on 2% Inflation

World’s Biggest Pension Fund Sees Japan Fail on 2% Inflation

The Bank of Japan’s unprecedented monetary easing will fail in its goal of spurring 2 percent inflation, according to Takahiro Mitani, president of the fund that manages the world’s largest pool of pension savings. While Japan is making progress toward ending deflation, consumer-price gains will probably stay between 0.1 percent and 1 percent, said Mitani, the head of the 124 trillion yen ($1.21 trillion) Government Pension Investment Fund. The fund may revise asset allocations in as little as a year after a government-appointed panel recommended a review of domestic bond holdings, he said. Read more of this post

Your fridge just texted: Japan electronics firms pin hopes on ‘smart’ appliances

Your fridge just texted: Japan electronics firms pin hopes on ‘smart’ appliances

4:41pm EST

By Maki Shiraki and Sophie Knight

TOKYO (Reuters) – For Japan’s electronics firms, the kitchen is the final frontier. Companies from Panasonic Corp to Toshiba Corp are diverting engineers and money away from their TV operations and into developing ‘smart appliances’ after losing out in the living room to cheaper Asian rivals. A fridge that texts pictures to show what’s for dinner, a voice-controlled washing machine – appliances like these are being designed to talk to each other via the cloud to cut energy bills. Read more of this post

Hotel Boom in South Korea Sparks Concern; Some Say Hospitality Industry Is Vulnerable to Oversupply

Hotel Boom in South Korea Sparks Concern

Some Say Hospitality Industry Is Vulnerable to Oversupply

JEYUP S. KWAAK

Dec. 3, 2013 3:34 p.m. ET

SEOUL—A record number of foreign tourists visiting South Korea in recent years has fueled in Seoul what property developers are calling the biggest hotel boom in the country’s history. But some industry participants say an overreliance on visitors from China and Japan leaves South Korea vulnerable to future overcapacity. Read more of this post

Samsung heir apparent’s power grows

Samsung heir apparent’s power grows

samsung_khera

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 – 09:48

Kim Ji-hyun

The Korea Herald/Asia News Network

SOUTH KOREA – The key points in Samsung Group’s latest personnel reshuffling are the concentration of power to heir apparent Lee Jay-yong and the desire to maintain the status quo. The so-called “Lee Jay-yong’s people” who received promotions included memory business chief Jun Dong-soo, who was named chief executive of Samsung SDS, an unlisted affiliate that may now receive a boost with the move. Read more of this post

South Korea’s $35 Billion ‘Labor of Love’; Developer Struggles to Build a City From Scratch

South Korea’s $35 Billion ‘Labor of Love’

Developer Struggles to Build a City From Scratch

IN-SOO NAM

Updated Dec. 3, 2013 7:35 p.m. ET

AM-BB329_SONGDO_G_20131203154813

A pagoda stands beside Songdo’s Central Park Canal. The Northeast Asia Trade Tower, background, opens next August. Gale International

SEOUL—About a decade ago, a huge tract of land reclaimed from the Yellow Sea west of Seoul was a barren wasteland. Today it is a city named Songdo with a population of 67,000, Korea’s tallest tower and a green oasis modeled on New York’s Central Park. On Wednesday, President Park Geun-hye is scheduled to join the developers of Songdo’s centerpiece—a $35 billion business district—for a ceremony welcoming Songdo’s latest office tenants: the World Bank’s Korea office and the Green Climate Fund, a United Nations organization. Read more of this post

Thai Tourism Bends Without Breaking in Turmoil: Chart of the Day

Thai Tourism Bends Without Breaking in Turmoil: Chart of the Day

Thailand’s tourism industry, which generates revenue equivalent to at least a 10th of economic output, will rebound after the eventual resolution between the government and protesters seeking to oust the prime minister, according to DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co. The CHART OF THE DAY shows monthly tourist arrivals in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, based on data compiled from state agencies, with Thailand on track to surpass its southern-border neighbor for the first full year since 1999, according to figures through October. The lower panel compares the benchmark Stock Exchange of Thailand Index and the SET Tourism and Leisure Index comprising 13 companies including Central Plaza Hotel Pcl and OHTL Pcl, operator of the Mandarin Oriental Bangkok. Read more of this post

Thai Protesters Pause Anti-Government Push for King’s Birthday

Thai Protesters Pause Anti-Government Push for King’s Birthday

Anti-government protesters in Bangkok said they will suspend street rallies tomorrow to mark the birthday of Thailand’s king, before resuming a push to oust Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. “From Dec. 6 we will resume the fight every day, every hour and every minute until we achieve victory,” protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban told supporters late yesterday in Bangkok. He has called for the government to be replaced by an unelected council to combat corruption and destroy the political network of Yingluck’s brother, Thaksin Shinawatra, who was toppled by a military coup in 2006. Read more of this post

Spotify Reveals the Math Behind Its Music Royalties

Spotify Reveals the Math Behind Its Music Royalties

Streaming Service Pays Less Than a Penny for Each Use

SVEN GRUNDBERG

Dec. 3, 2013 7:27 p.m. ET

Ever wonder how much an artist gets every time you click their song on services like Spotify? The Swedish streaming-music provider is looking to provide some answers amid continued debate over whether artists and music rights holders get a fair shake from their business model. Read more of this post

The web has not yet killed the art of sales; Techniques have not changed as much as some online evangelists claim

December 2, 2013 3:54 pm

The web has not yet killed the art of sales

By Andrew Hill

Techniques have not changed as much as some online evangelists claim

Call me naive, but somehow I expected more from the double-glazing salesman I recently invited into my home. I knew about confusing pitches, pressure tactics, cowboy installers and fly-by-night manufacturers. You do not have to do much research to appreciate that sellers of double glazing are in the hard-sell hall of fame, alongside used-car vendors and estate agents. Read more of this post

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