Turkish prime minister loses aura of invincibility

December 26, 2013 7:41 pm

Turkish prime minister loses aura of invincibility

By Andrew Finkel in Istanbul

Just two weeks ago – before the emergence of a bribery and corruption scandal that has rocked his government – Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan appeared as he has for much of his last decade in power: invincible.But as Mr Erdogan returned on Wednesday from a trip to Pakistan to face the media, that familiar aura had vanished. Just that day, he was forced to replace ten ministers as the scandal pushed closer to the core of his government.

Erdogan Bayraktar, the outgoing urbanisation and environment minister, had the audacity to tell reporters that the prime minister had full knowledge of his actions and should follow him out the door.

The fast-moving scandal has revealed a split between Mr Erdogan and his erstwhile political ally, Fethullah Gulen, a cleric who leads a rival Islamist movement. It has riveted the Turkish public. And it has raised unfamiliar questions about the prime minister’s command.

“He’s a one man show. He wants to control the police and the judiciary and has no understanding of the separation of powers,” said Hasan Cemal, a columnist who was dismissed from Milliyet newspaper after a very public row with Mr Erdogan.

The prime minister’s troubles started just over a week ago when prosecutors launched a raid on the homes of prominent civil servants and businessmen. Among those taken in for questioning were the sons of three prominent cabinet ministers – two of whom are still in detention. The most startling arrest was the head of the state controlled Halkbank, who was allegedly discovered with $4.5 million in cash tucked away in shoeboxes in his library.

The revelations were a shock for a government accustomed to getting its way. Since Mr Erdogan came to power in 2003, he has succeeded at taming the country’s powerful military while sidelining dissenting newspaper columnists like Mr Cemal.

After appearing caught off-guard, Mr Erdogan has since gone on the offensive. He dismissed the investigation as a political vendetta against him. Meanwhile, police were taken off the case, new prosecutors were appointed and the ministers who were in the direct line of fire were asked to step down. Like trees in the forest, these dismissals were concealed in an overall cabinet shake-up in which ten new ministers were installed.

In the past, Mr Erdogan has been able to rally his political base as a champion of public morality, talking up his opposition to abortions and caesarean sections and even opposing male and female university students sharing the same flat.

But it is not clear that this lockdown strategy will have the intended effect. One public prosecutor, Muammer Akkas, was in open rebellion on Thursday, issuing a press statement accusing his superiors of a dereliction of office by refusing to carry out a new wave of search and seizures.

“All my colleagues and the public should be aware that I, as a public prosecutor, have been prevented from carrying out an investigation,” Mr Akkas said.

Mr Gulen, who Mr Erdogan has blamed for helping to orchestrate the investigations through his legion of followers, has also sought to turn up the pressure. “Those who don’t see the thief but go after those trying to catch the thief, who don’t see the murder but try to defame others by accusing innocent people – let God bring fire to their houses, ruin their homes, break their unities,” he said in a video recording.

Under pressure, the government has resorted to a new tactic: blaming an international cabal of working in tandem with Mr Gulen to orchestrate the investigation. Outgoing economics minister Zafer Caglayan had a stab at what Turkish officialdom now dubs the “interest rate lobby” – those financial circles which want to see Turkey weak and its deposit rate high.

“We stomped on their foot and now we are going to cut off their artery,” Mr Caglayan told reporters at the handover ceremony to his successor.

Turkey’s central bank has for some time been pursuing a policy of supporting the lira to keep rates low. It has done so on the assumption that capital inflows would return to normal by next year.

“It looks like the central bank is hoping that all the bad things will go away and pressures on the lira will disappear in the new year,” said Murat Ucer, analyst for Global Source Partners.

Yet analysts are now bracing for the likelihood that the Erdogan government will remain in a political maelstrom well up to nationwide municipal elections scheduled for this March.

 

Last updated: December 26, 2013 10:08 am

Turkey’s Erdogan replaces 10 ministers

By Andrew Finkel in Istanbul

Turkey’s corruption crisis deepened after Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said he replaced 10 cabinet ministers, half of his total roster, after three ministers resigned over a high-level graft inquiry on Wednesday.

The replaced ministers included EU minister Egemen Bagis, who was allegedly named in the corruption probe but had not resigned yet, and key positions such as the economy and justice ministers

Earlier in the day three cabinet ministers close to Mr Erdogan tendered their resignations – among them economy minister Zafer Caglayan and interior minister Muammer Guler, both of whose sons are in prison awaiting trial on corruption charges.

As interior minister and head of the police force, Mr Guler was particularly vulnerable as he was ultimately responsible for investigating his own son.

Police raids more than a week ago were prompted by what has been revealed as a two-year investigation into bribery, corruption and gold smuggling.

Mr Guler’s son, Baris, was discovered with a series of strong boxes in his home as well as a counting machine to keep track of large quantities of cash. Those responsible for conducting the raids have been removed from their posts for conducting the operation without informing their superiors.

However, it is the resignation of the third cabinet member, urbanisation and environment minister Erdogan Bayraktar, that may prove most damaging. Mr Bayraktar, a political ally of the prime minister since Mr Erdogan became mayor of Istanbul in 1994, made clear he would not go quietly.

He said he was under pressure to resign and, furthermore, to issue a statement that would not put pressure on the prime minister. He added that everything he had done had been with Mr Erdogan’s knowledge.

“I declare my resignation from parliament, and as a minister,” Mr Bayraktar said. “However, I also believe that to make the people more comfortable, the prime minister should also resign.”

Mr Bayraktar is not the only one of Mr Erdogan’s erstwhile political confidants to have sparred publicly with him in recent days. Analysts say the corruption charges represent an escalation in the animosity between Mr Erdogan and his former ally, the septuagenarian Islamic cleric Fethullah Gulen, who lives in self-imposed exile in Pennsylvania and has a large following in the Turkish police and judiciary.

Prime Minister Erdogan again blamed foreign conspirators for colluding in his government’s problems. In a televised address, he accused “some media and special interests” of betraying the country.

News of the reshuffle sent the Turkish lira to a record low against the dollar on Thursday of TL2.1025, from TL2.0850 late on Wednesday. Stocks and government bonds also fell.

The latest development in the crisis is likely to aggravate Turkey’s recent economic imbalances by putting further pressure on the Turkish lira. The central bank’s recent decision to defend the currency with reserves, rather than via higher interest rates, may limit inward flows. This, in turn, is likely to have a negative impact on reducing a current account deficit currently running at more than 8 per cent a year.