Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater On The Fed’s Dilemma: “We’re Worried That There’s No Gas Left In The QE Tank”

Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater On The Fed’s Dilemma: “We’re Worried That There’s No Gas Left In The QE Tank”

Tyler Durden on 11/10/2013 18:21 -0500

“The Fed’s real dilemma is that its policy is creating a financial market bubble that is large relative to the pickup in the economy that it is producing,” Bridgewater notes as the relationship between US equity markets and the Fed’s balance sheet (here and here for example) and “disconcerting disconnects” (here and here) indicate how the Fed is “trapped.” However, as the incoming Yellen faces up to her ‘tough’ decisions to taper or not, Ray Dalio’s team is concerned about something else – “we’re not worried about whether the Fed is going to hit or release the gas pedal, we’re worried about whether there’s much gas left in the tank and what will happen if there isn’t.” Read more of this post

Why central bankers’ composure is pure theatre

Why central bankers’ composure is pure theatre

Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England know extricating from stimulus policies is fraught with danger

Central bankers like to project a sense of serenity. The markets may be traumatised and the politicians may be panicking, but nothing fazes the technocrats in charge of our money. They are headmasterly figures: slightly detached but with their fingers on the pulse. That’s the image. In reality, the central bankers are in a funk about the health of their nations’ economies and the challenge of extricating their institutions from the stimulus policies that have been responsible for what has, so far, been a tepid global recovery. Read more of this post

Canada’s housing market teeters precariously; Analysts warn nation is on verge of ‘prolonged correction’

November 10, 2013 8:37 pm

Canada’s housing market teeters precariously

By Anjli Raval in New York

Robert MacFarlane, a long-time crane operator, surveys his empire from the top of one of Toronto’s flashy new apartment buildings. “I can see more than 50 tower cranes,” said Mr MacFarlane, whose bird’s-eye photography from the country’s tallest crane has gained him online notoriety as interest in Toronto’s property sector escalates. These cranes – which can offer clues to bubble-like conditions – emerged in response to lofty demand for condominiums from investors and homebuyers taking advantage of Canada’s ultra-low interest rates. Read more of this post

Cadillac Needs About A Decade To Become A Top Global Luxury Brand

Cadillac Needs About A Decade To Become A Top Global Luxury Brand

BEN KLAYMAN, REUTERS 43 MINUTES AGO 278

DETROIT (Reuters) – General Motors Co’s <GM.N> new Cadillac marketing chief believes it could take as long as a decade to build its reputation as a global luxury brand. Uwe Ellinghaus, a former marketing executive with German luxury automaker BMW AG <BMWG.DE>, will assume his duties on January 1, but was introduced this week as the person responsible for shaping Cadillac’s image around the world. Read more of this post

Commodities: Destination Africa; Trading houses are looking at the vast potential that lies in meeting the continent’s surging consumer demand

November 10, 2013 2:49 pm

Commodities: Destination Africa

By Javier Blas in Lagos, Nigeria

Trading houses are looking at the vast potential that lies in meeting the continent’s surging consumer demand

At the food processing plant he runs in Lagos, Mukul Mathur describes the thousands of miles that his tomatoes travel. At first, their odyssey betweenNigeria and California appears unremarkable in an age of globalisation. Mr Mathur would seem to be just another trader buying raw materials in Africa and selling them to distant, wealthier markets. But he actually runs a supply chain at odds with old, colonial-era trade routes. Read more of this post

As Plenum Starts, an Economist Sees Crisis Ahead; Wu Jinglian argues that predatory officials and rent-seeking bureaucracies will suffocate essential innovation and productivity improvements

NOVEMBER 8, 2013, 12:54 AM

As Plenum Starts, an Economist Sees Crisis Ahead

By CHRIS BUCKLEY

The Chinese state news media has hailed a Communist Party conference on reinvigorating the economy as a triumph even before it opens Saturday. But beforehand, one of the country’s most prominent economists has delivered a warning: China faces a crisis unless big economic changes are accompanied by a political overhaul. Wu Jinglian is one of China’s best-known liberal economists and at 83 has the demeanor of a wizened professor. Yet he is also a policy insider whose books and speeches are widely read in China. Read more of this post

Portrait of Deng as Reformer in 1978 Plenum Ignores History

NOVEMBER 9, 2013, 3:44 AM

Portrait of Deng as Reformer in 1978 Plenum Ignores History

By CHRIS BUCKLEY

China’s Communist Party leader, Xi Jinping, wants the late Deng Xiaoping’s magic. Mr. Xi will lay out proposals for economic rejuvenation at a leadership conference that started Saturday, and state-run media have likened the event to a historic meeting in 1978 when, they say, Mr. Deng began an era of market “reform and opening up.” But anyone looking for inspiration and instruction from Mr. Deng should beware: the conventional account of the 1978 meeting is a compound of selective memories, and a deceptive guide to how China’s steps to economic transformation really happened. Read more of this post

No Quick Fixes for China’s Overwhelmed Organ Transplant System

NOVEMBER 10, 2013, 7:15 PM

No Quick Fixes for China’s Overwhelmed Organ Transplant System

By AUSTIN RAMZY

Suffering from bile duct cancer and with no family to support him and little money for treatment, Xu Bao, 35, vowed that if he suffered an early death he would give something back to society. He decided that he would donate his corneas to fellow Chinese waiting for transplants. It was a remarkable gesture in a country where organ donations are rare, and executed prisoners have been the main source of transplant organs. Local news media in Hefei, the city where Mr. Xu was being treated, gathered at his hospital bedside in April to report as he signed documents declaring his intentions. Representatives from two organizations, the Red Cross Society of China office in Mr. Xu’s home province of Anhui and the Aier Ophthalmology Hospital, came to finalize the arrangements. Read more of this post

Reform, Ahoy? A Newspaper Heralds New Horizons for the Chinese Ship of State

NOVEMBER 8, 2013, 4:29 AM

Reform, Ahoy? A Newspaper Heralds New Horizons for the Chinese Ship of State

By DIDI KIRSTEN TATLOW

A leading Beijing newspaper has published a hefty, 96-page report titled “Reform: Setting Off Again” the day before hundreds of China’s Communist leaders were to begin a four-day meeting to discuss the country’s future. In an image freighted with symbolism, the cover of the supplement in The Beijing News on Friday showed a fully-rigged tall ship in choppy waters sailing straight into the future. To its left are rocks, threateningly close. The only way it can safely turn is right, or it could put distance between itself and the rocks by forging ahead, a set of choices that left some wondering if this was a political message. The Beijing News didn’t return calls seeking an interview with the artist or comment from the newspaper. Read more of this post

Iskandar’s property investment appeal ‘likely to decline’

Iskandar’s property investment appeal ‘likely to decline’

SINGAPORE — The clock is ticking for Singaporeans who want to buy a mass-market home in the booming Iskandar region, as foreigners will only be able to buy properties in Malaysia priced above RM1 million (S$390,000) from next year.

BY LEE YEN NEE –

4 HOURS 25 MIN AGO

SINGAPORE — The clock is ticking for Singaporeans who want to buy a mass-market home in the booming Iskandar region, as foreigners will only be able to buy properties in Malaysia priced above RM1 million (S$390,000) from next year. At that threshold, Singaporeans will not be able to buy the sort of property that they have been snapping up in droves. As a result, the region’s position as a top investment destination may take a hit, said analysts. Read more of this post

The Singapore Exchange (SGX) is mulling new rules on penny stocks after last month’s meltdown in these counters caused huge losses to some investors

SGX looking at new penny stock rules

Monday, November 11, 2013 – 06:00

Anita Gabriel

The Straits Times

SINGAPORE – The Singapore Exchange (SGX) is mulling new rules on penny stocks after last month’s meltdown in these counters caused huge losses to some investors. SGX chief executive Magnus Bocker acknowledged that the saga, which wiped out billions of dollars in market value, has harmed the bourse’s reputation. “Is it reasonable to trade stocks that are denominated in a few cents? I don’t think so. Some markets in the world have rules on how low the price of a stock can be,” he told The Straits Times on Wednesday. Read more of this post

Dengue dread spreads to Singapore’s Orchard Road’s offices, homes

Dengue dread spreads to Orchard’s offices, homes

Monday, November 11, 2013 – 08:37

My Paper

SINGAPORE – The Orchard Road lights are up and ready to usher in the Christmas festivities. But an unwelcome visitor is threatening to spoil the party. The number of dengue cases in the Orchard Cluster continues to climb, hitting 82 on Friday. What’s more, the threat no longer seems limited to the Orchard Gateway construction site, as an increasing number of individuals working and living in the area have started falling prey to the mosquito menace. Read more of this post

Biting the hand that feeds: India’s small towns favor opposition

Biting the hand that feeds: India’s small towns favor opposition

4:07pm EST

By Krishna N Das and Shyamantha Asokan

KASBA BONLI, India (Reuters) – Kasba Bonli is a newly prosperous market town in the northern Indian state of Rajasthan and it should be a perfect advertisement for the ruling Congress party’s pro-farmer policies. Instead the buzz in the bazaar is for the opposition. In just a few years, handouts for farmers by Congress have helped turn the once-deprived village into a thriving retail centre, selling everything from glittery bangles to satellite dishes. Read more of this post

Hong Kong Luxury Property Prices Choked by Tightening

Hong Kong Luxury Property Prices Choked by Tightening

Hong Kong businessman Raymond Chiu says he has perfect credit and is prepared to spend about HK$16 million ($2 million) on a 1,000-square-foot apartment in the city’s Mid-Levels residential area. There’s just one catch. The government requires a 50 percent down payment. That’s “really putting us off,” said Chiu, 45, who owns an information technology consulting company. “I run a business so cash flow is important. It’s frustrating because this is non-negotiable, though I have perfect credit history.” Read more of this post

China’s cautious land-reform tests cast doubt on big urban vision

China’s cautious land-reform tests cast doubt on big urban vision

4:13pm EST

By Kevin Yao

CHENGDU, China (Reuters) – Tan Yingyu is one of China’s 200 million migrant workers and like many he is stuck: he does not want to return to his village but also cannot become a legal resident in the city of Chengdu, where he has worked for nearly 20 years. His dilemma highlights a key issue for China’s reformist leaders as they look for ways to encourage more people to move to cities to help turn a credit- and investment-driven economy into a consumer-powered one. Read more of this post

China’s Building Push Goes Underground

China’s Building Push Goes Underground

Party Leaders Signal Subway Expansions Are About Urbanization, Not Infrastructure Binging

JAMES T. AREDDY

Nov. 10, 2013 7:57 p.m. ET

KUNSHAN, China—Twenty years ago, China’s Communist Party leadership earmarked money for an expressway network modeled on the U.S. interstate highway system. A decade ago, they spent big on bullet trains. As a fresh team of Chinese leaders gathers this week in Beijing to lay out broad economic goals, the effort to keep China moving has shifted underground, with dozens of cities spending billions of dollars on subway systems. Read more of this post

Abenomics Faces Emerging Pressures

Abenomics Faces Emerging Pressures

Trouble in Developing Markets Blurs Growth Picture

TAKASHI NAKAMICHI

Updated Nov. 10, 2013 5:31 p.m. ET

Japan is expected to report this week that its economic-revival experiment hit a speed bump over the summer, with growth for the three months through September likely slowing to less than half the pace recorded in the first half of the year. That doesn’t necessarily mean Abenomics—Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s master plan involving weakening the yen and temporarily boosting infrastructure spending—is faltering. Read more of this post

Japan Inc Weighing Pay Hikes? Little Sign So Far

November 11, 2013, 9:34 AM

Japan Inc Weighing Pay Hikes? Little Sign So Far

By Yumi Otagaki

In what are perhaps the world’s biggest, most public, and protracted labor negotiations, Japan’s top policymakers – from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda on down – have for weeks been pressing the country’s executives to give employees their first base pay increases in years next spring. How’s it going so far? If weekend reports are any sign, not so good. Read more of this post

Kospi Rally Leaves Brokers Behind as Profits Drop: Korea Markets

Kospi Rally Leaves Brokers Behind as Profits Drop: Korea Markets

South Korean brokers are missing out on a rally that sent the nation’s benchmark stock index to its highest level since 2011, as slumping trading volumes contribute to the weakest profits in eight years. Samsung Securities Co. (016360), the country’s biggest brokerage by market capitalization, and five of its local peers are valued at the lowest levels since at least 2007 after falling an average of 15 percent in Seoul this year. Industry earnings have shrunk to the smallest since the first half of 2005, while trading on the Korea Exchange (KOSPI) fell to a six-year low, data compiled by Bloomberg and the Financial Supervisory Service show. Read more of this post

‘Long-Only’ Funds Lose Their Hedge’Long-Only’ Funds Lose Their Hedge

‘Long-Only’ Funds Lose Their Hedge’Long-Only’ Funds Lose Their Hedge

JULIET CHUNG

Nov. 10, 2013 7:02 p.m. ET

What do you call a hedge fund that doesn’t hedge? The latest growth area for the industry. On the heels of a multiyear market rally, a slew of hedge-fund firms are launching “long-only” funds betting that at least some stocks have further to climb. The moves come amid a brutal stretch for short bets against companies, traditionally a key strategy for hedge funds. Read more of this post

Flurry of Stock, Bond Issuance Is a Danger Sign for Markets

Nov 10, 2013

Flurry of Stock, Bond Issuance Is a Danger Sign for Markets

E.S. BROWNING

Just as financial markets were recovering from the Washington turmoil, a new danger signal has started blinking, in the form of a flood of stock and bond issues. Many people see no problem. They find the new-issue action exciting, as the hoopla over last week’s $2.1 billion offering by Twitter Inc.TWTR -7.24% showed. The process fuels entrepreneurship and securities issues are mother’s milk for brokerage firms, generating enormous profits. Read more of this post

Signs Multiply That Sentiment Is Too Upbeat; Surveys of Retail Investors, Advisers, Point to Froth

Signs Multiply That Sentiment Is Too Upbeat

Surveys of Retail Investors, Advisers, Point to Froth

SPENCER JAKAB

Nov. 10, 2013 5:44 p.m. ET

For those worried that irrational exuberance is back, Twitter Inc. TWTR -7.24% ‘s hyped initial public offering provides yet another bit of anecdotal evidence. More quantifiable measures of investors’ mood going into the end of 2013 may support that view, too. A particularly worrisome one is the Investors Intelligence gauge of adviser sentiment. Its last reading showed that 55.2% of respondents were bullish and just 15.6% bearish, tying the highest difference between the two this year. The last time the gap was bigger was April 8, 2011, which preceded the sharpest stock-market correction of the current bull market. Read more of this post

Big Law Mergers Turn Off Clients; Amid a Wave of Megamergers, Legal Experts Say Expertise—Not Size—Matters Most

Big Law Mergers Turn Off Clients

Amid a Wave of Megamergers, Legal Experts Say Expertise—Not Size—Matters Most

JENNIFER SMITH

Updated Nov. 10, 2013 7:42 p.m. ET

When it comes to law firms, bigger may not always be better. A wave of legal tie-ups has created a fleet of supersize law firms with offices around the world, and more are in the works this fall. Partners at cross-border entity Dentons and U.S. firm McKenna Long & Aldridge LLP, for example, are poised to vote on a union that would produce one of the top three global law firms by head count. Recent merger talks between two big U.S. firms—Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe LLP and Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP—could lead to the creation of another big player. But law firms with the urge to merge might check with their clients first. Read more of this post

GM Labels Lose, But So Does Big Food

GM Labels Lose, But So Does Big Food

For the second time, blue-state voters have defeated a ballot initiative to require labeling of genetically modified foods. In 2012, it was California; this week, it was Washington, where a labeling referendum lost 55 percent to 45 percent. Advocates of labeling may as well suspend similar efforts in other states, because it’s clear that, when it comes to persuading voters, they’re no match for Big Food. In Washington, the Grocery Manufacturers Association, Monsanto Co., DuPont Co. and others raised $22 million to fight the measure, almost triple the $8.4 million collected by Whole Foods Markets Inc., Dr. Bronner’s Magic Soap, the Center for Food Safety and other advocates of labeling. In California, the food industry similarly outspent its opposition $46 million to $9 million. Read more of this post

Sitting on farm fence in global bidding war for Warrnambool Cheese & Butter; While big business battles for control of the Warrnambool dairy producer, farmers are undecided.

Sitting on farm fence in global bidding war for Warrnambool Cheese & Butter

While big business battles for control of the Warrnambool dairy producer, farmers are undecided.

November 9, 2013

Jared Lynch

Nick Renyard’s farm is far from the clang and clatter of city traffic and investment bankers’ offices. Bush and bird song line the road to the third-generation dairy farmer’s property nestled in the rolling green hills south of Timboon, in Victoria’s Western District. Mr Renyard’s association with Warrnambool Cheese & Butter is more than just that of a supplier and processor. His father John was director at the company, and Mr Renyard, 39, has owned WCB shares longer than he can remember. ”I’ve had them since I was a little kid,” he said. ”I can’t remember exactly how long I’ve had them but when I got them they were $2 ordinary shares and there were 500.” Almost all of Australia’s main milk processors, including NSW’s Bega Cheese and the country’s biggest milk processor, Murray Goulburn, have entered a global bidding war for WCB, which until recently was little known outside its home base in south-west Victoria. Read more of this post

New China Cities: Shoddy Homes, Broken Hope

November 9, 2013

New China Cities: Shoddy Homes, Broken Hope

By IAN JOHNSON

HUAMING, China — Three years ago, the Shanghai World Expo featured this newly built town as a model for how China would move from being a land of farms to a land of cities. In a dazzling pavilion visited by more than a million people, visitors learned how farmers were being given a new life through a fair-and-square deal that did not cost them anything. Today, Huaming may be an example of another transformation: the ghettoization of China’s new towns. Read more of this post

Forest Misuse Costs Indonesia $7 Billion in Revenue, Report Says

Forest Misuse Costs Indonesia $7 Billion in Revenue, Report Says

Illegal logging and mismanagement of Indonesia’s forestry industry may have prevented more than $7 billion flowing to state coffers from 2007 to 2011, costing the government more than its health budget, Human Rights Watch said. In contrast, the Indonesian government’s 2011 revenue from timber royalties and reforestation fees was $300 million, said Emily Harwell, the lead author of a report released by Human Rights Watch. Read more of this post

‘Western concept’ Chinese shares see US resurgence

‘Western concept’ Chinese shares see US resurgence

Staff Reporter

2013-11-10

Chinese companies seeking a stock listing in the US have seen a resurgence in 2013, but most US investors are not pursuing China concept shares but rather seeking Chinese companies with an “American shadow,” the Shanghai-based First Financial Daily reports. On Oct. 31, 58.com, a Chinese local classified-ad website, launched an IPO with a price of US$17, giving it a market value of more than US$1.4 billion. The company’s share price jumped 42% on debut. Read more of this post

Only 6% of employees in China ‘engaged’ in their work, less than half the average of 13% in other countries

Only 6% of employees in China ‘engaged’ in their work: poll

Staff Reporter

2013-11-10

Only 6% of people in China’s workforce are fully engaged in their jobs, less than half the average of 13% in other countries, according to a Gallup poll which surveyed 142 countries and regions between 2011 and 2012. The company asked employees to answer 12 questions including whether they learned new things on the job, whether their efforts were recognized and whether they made friends in the workplace. The employees were divided into three categories: “actively disengaged, “not engaged” and “engaged.” The report suggests engaged employees will bring benefits and innovation to their companies but their efforts could be sabotaged by those that are actively disengaged. Read more of this post

Spanish winemakers eye China’s wine frontier

Spanish winemakers eye China’s wine frontier

POSTED: 10 Nov 2013 14:20
Wines from Spain and the New World are gaining ground in China at the expense of their French counterparts, as increasingly adventurous Chinese wine enthusiasts push back the frontiers of a surging market, say experts. HONG KONG: Wines from Spain and the New World are gaining ground in China at the expense of their French counterparts, as increasingly adventurous Chinese wine enthusiasts push back the frontiers of a surging market, say experts. Read more of this post