Future female billionaires most likely to be Asian

Future female billionaires most likely to be Asian

By Joe Marsh | 8 March 2013 (1 hour ago)
However, more support is still needed for women entrepreneurs in the region. Such are the findings of two new studies.

Vera Wang, with $790 million in net worth, is likely to be a billionaire soon, says Wealth-X

On the one hand, Asian women are growing richer quicker than their peers elsewhere in the world, while on the other there are fewer female business owners in Asia than male ones, and more support is needed for female entrepreneurs.

The first conclusion comes from ultra-high-net-worth research firm Wealth-X, the second from a study carried out by UK bank Barclays.

Of the top 13 women most likely to become the next female billionaires, more than 60% are from Asia, notes Wealth-X, “mirroring the ‘emerging’ theme seen across other sectors”. Read more of this post

This Colorful Table Shows Why You Should Diversify Your Emerging Markets Portfolio

This Colorful Table Shows Why You Should Diversify Your Emerging Markets Portfolio

Sam Ro | Mar. 7, 2013, 5:37 AM | 783 | 

If you’re lucky, then you might be able to pick the right stocks that’ll help you beat the major benchmarks.  But most investors who try to be stock pickers end up losing. The same goes for emerging market investors. This is why the best strategy may be to invest in a portfolio of countries rather than just one. Below you’ll find US Funds’ Periodic Table of Emerging Markets, which ranks the annual stock market returns for various emerging markets. “Emerging markets, like all investments, can have wide price fluctuations over time,” they write.  “This table shows the ebb and flow of emerging market countries over the past decade and illustrates the principal of mean reversion — the concept that returns eventually move back toward their mean or average.”

How Dollar Diplomacy Spelled Doom for the British Empire

How Dollar Diplomacy Spelled Doom for the British Empire

“The British Empire seems to be running off almost as fast as the American loan,” Winston Churchill thundered before the House of Commons on Dec. 20, 1946. “The haste is appalling.”

As if secretly synchronized, the pillars of empire and the international acceptability of the pound sterling were crumbling in tandem.

In late 1945, President Harry S. Truman’s administration had grudgingly agreed to provide the bankrupt U.K. with a $3.75 billion loan — but on the condition that the pound sterling be made fully convertible to dollars at the rate of $4.03 to the pound by July 15, 1947. This would allow Britain’s colonies and dominions to sell sterling for dollars, satisfying a long- standing demand of U.S. exporters and anti-imperialists while depleting the U.K.’s meager official reserves.

Now dollars hung over every question of how the empire would be dismantled. In February 1946, the great economist John Maynard Keynes had been full of foreboding about the British government’s inertial desire to “cut a dash in the world considerably above our means.” The country, he observed, was “not prepared to accept peacefully and wisely the fact that her position and her resources are not what they once were.” Read more of this post

Where Have China’s Workers Gone? China’s large pool of surplus labor has fueled its rapid industrial growth. Now this “demographic dividend” may be almost exhausted, and its economy reaching a Lewis turning point

Where Have China’s Workers Gone?

March 7 (Bloomberg) – Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang are taking over China’s leadership at a time when growth has slackened and labor issues have become more complex.

Reports that businesses such as Foxconn Technology Group are raising wages and struggling to recruit workers in China have intensified debate over just how many surplus workers the country still has. Meanwhile, a boom in college-educated Chinese has raised concerns of an impending threat to U.S. competitiveness. These seemingly disparate concerns about China’s labor force are actually linked by common underlying factors, with critical implications for China’s ability to remain the growth engine of the world.

China’s large pool of surplus labor has fueled its rapid industrial growth. Now this “demographic dividend” may be almost exhausted, and its economy reaching a Lewis turning point: a shift named after the Nobel prize-winning Arthur Lewis, who was the first to describe how poor economies can develop by transferring surplus labor from agriculture to the more productive industrial sector until the point when surplus labor disappears, wages begin to rise and growth slows. Read more of this post

China’s Richer-Than-Romney Lawmakers Show Xi’s Reform Challenge

China’s Richer-Than-Romney Lawmakers Show Xi’s Reform Challenge

The ranks of China’s ultra-wealthy in its legislature swelled 20 percent this year, highlighting the vested interests that may oppose any measures by incoming President Xi Jinping to reduce the nation’s wealth gap.

Ninety members of the National People’s Congress are on a list of China’s 1,000 richest people published by the Shanghai- based Hurun Report, up from 75 last year, according to a review of the data by Bloomberg News. Everyone on the Hurun list had a fortune of at least 1.8 billion yuan ($289.4 million), more than former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.

The growing presence of wealthy people in the legislature coincides with efforts by Xi to stem corruption and the public display of luxury by officials as he seeks to address concern the Communist Party no longer represents interests of ordinary Chinese. Xi’s task may become more difficult as the rich move to cement their gains through legislation, said Yang Fengchun, an associate professor of government and management at Peking University.

“The National People’s Congress has a lot of rich businesspeople who have the knowledge and the means to make laws, and that’s a privilege the rest of society doesn’t have,” Yang said in a telephone interview. “The common people believe that they can’t protect the rights of the weak.” Read more of this post

China: Interest rate hikes ‘cannot be ruled out’

Interest rate hikes ‘cannot be ruled out’

Updated: 2013-03-07 09:51

By Wang Xiaotian ( China Daily)

Diverse measures could be used to help control inflation, says adviser Read more of this post

With Positions to Fill, Employers Wait for Perfection

March 6, 2013

With Positions to Fill, Employers Wait for Perfection

By CATHERINE RAMPELL

American employers have a variety of job vacancies, piles of cash and countless well-qualified candidates. But despite a slowly improving economy, many companies remain reluctant to actually hire, stringing job applicants along for weeks or months before they make a decision.

If they ever do.

The number of job openings has increased to levels not seen since the height of the financial crisis, but vacancies are staying unfilled much longer than they used to — an average of 23 business days today compared to a low of 15 in mid-2009, according to a new measure of Labor Department data by the economists Steven J. Davis, Jason Faberman and John Haltiwanger. Read more of this post

Internet rumors and xenophobia cost the world’s biggest instant noodle maker Tingyi/Master Kong $2.4 billion

Internet rumors and xenophobia cost the world’s biggest instant noodle maker $2.4 billion

By Gwynn Guilford — 4 hours ago

When most people think “ramen” they think Japan, but that association has landed Master Kong, the world’s biggest instant noodle maker, in a lot of hot water. The company, which is based in Taiwan and listed in Hong Kong, has lost some $2.4 billion in market capitalization after false rumors about its ownership circulated during Japan and China’s showdown over islands in the East China Sea. Japanese products and companies have been hit with damaging boycotts and protests since the crisis began last fall. That’s also when spurious rumors began circulating online that Master Kong’s parent company Tingyi was majority-owned by a Japanese company. Then a mass campaign encouraged a boycott  via internet and SMS, alleging that the Hong Kong-listed noodle-maker had donated ¥300 million to Japan’s purchase of the controversial islands, as reported by Chinese media blog Danwei, which also created this great chart: 

The smear campaign got its facts wrong—the Japanese instant food company Sanyo owns 33.18% of Tingyi, just behind Taiwan’s Ting Hsin, which owns 33.27%. And the company didn’t make any pledges to buy the islands for Japan. But the facts are little consolation to the company or its investors. Tingyi says the originator of what it calls “Japanese investment-gate” (link in Chinese) was its biggest competitor in the ramen market, Uni-President (which, for its part, denies involvement). But this just goes to show how volatile a mix of social media, misinformation, and xenophobia can be—even before you add the extra spicy packet.

Former Thai DPM and chief economic architect Somkid: “The country is like a Monet painting – nice to look at from a distance but just a blur at closer inspection”; Thailand may become a country without a future if its leaders continue to overlook visionary and sustainable development

Somkid scathing on ‘lip service’ of populist govt

JEERAPONG PRASERTPOLKRUNG
THE NATION March 7, 2013 1:00 am

Thailand may become a country without a future if its leaders continue to overlook visionary and sustainable development, Somkid Jatusripitak, a former deputy prime minister, said on Tuesday.

“The country is like a Monet painting – nice to look at from a distance but just a blur at closer inspection,” he said, referring to French impressionist Claude Monet, who died in 1926.

Somkid was a guest speaker at an event to mark the 58th anniversary of the Thai Journalists Association. On the surface, the Thai economy is at the forefront of Asean countries, he said. But underneath the apparent success story lurk worrisome trends that could lead to decay. Read more of this post

Cash levels in Brokerage accounts approach lowest levels in history! This is America, Now: The Dow Hits a Record High With Household Income at a Decade Low

Cash levels in Brokerage accounts approach lowest levels in history!

Posted by Chris Kimble on 03/02/2013 at 7:01 am; This entry is filed under Negative Net worth, S&P 500.

The awesome chart below was created by  Doug Short, reflecting that a “ton of cash has disappeared in investors pockets this past month!”

Negative Net Worth = “Free Credit Cash accounts (cash available to spend/invest quickly) minus Margin Debt.” The chart Doug put together reflects a rapid decline in available cash/net worth this past month. Read more of this post

Food for Thought: Why Auntie Anne’s Pretzels Failed in China

Food for Thought: Why Auntie Anne’s Pretzels Failed in China

Published : March 06, 2013 in Knowledge@Wharton

Growing up in Indiana and Washington, D.C., Taiwanese-born Wen-Szu Lin often felt torn between two cultures. When, as a young entrepreneur, he was presented with the opportunity to buy the Chinese franchise rights to Auntie Anne’s, his unique background began to feel like an advantage: Who better than a Chinese-American to sell an American product to Chinese consumers? That advantage didn’t carry the English-speaking, American-educated Lin as far as he thought it would. The China Twist: An Entrepreneur’s Cautious Tales of Franchising in China is the story of his journey. At a time when China’s global economic importance continues to grow, the book provides interesting insights into the challenges — the ones you might expect as well as those you don’t necessarily see coming — of launching a business in a dynamic and rapidly evolving consumer landscape. A year after graduating from Wharton with a degree in entrepreneurial management, Lin was working for a global strategy consulting firm. He enjoyed his job but had recently gotten engaged and was hoping for a position that would afford greater financial stability to his future family. As his academic focus might suggest, he wanted the opportunity to build a business of his own from the ground up. A franchise operation seemed like the perfect place to start, offering the best of both worlds: He would own the territory, but also have the advantage of a proven business model and a built-in support system.

Auntie Anne’s offered an enticing opportunity. Explaining the company’s background and the reasons for his enthusiasm about his entrepreneurial venture, Lin writes: “‘Anne’ of Auntie Anne’s Pretzels is Anne Beiler. In 1988, she began mixing, twisting and baking pretzels and a variety of snacks at a farmer’s market in Downingtown, Pa. One day, Anne and her husband Jonas ran out of raw ingredients to make their typical pretzels, so they used the materials they had left in their kitchen. The change in recipe caused their sales to soar. The pretzels sold so well that they decided to stop selling anything else. The recipe they discovered in 1988 is the same recipe sold today at more than a thousand stores in more than twenty countries….

“In the U.S., the stores became extremely popular in most malls and transportation hubs, so it was proven to make money. Another plus: somehow, the brand had taken on a very nostalgic, comforting feeling. Many consumers could often recall a personal experience with Auntie Anne’s. Few brands could claim this kind of emotional bond. More amazing was that Auntie Anne’s had never invested in any above-the-line advertising (that is, TV, radio, print media, etc.). Their marketing plan was simple: enthusiastic employees offering samples of piping hot pretzels to anyone walking within a few feet of the stores.”

Lin and his partner Joseph Sze believed this approach could potentially make pretzels a huge hit in China. So, with a few investors backing their plans, Lin and Sze acquired franchise rights to introduce Auntie Anne’s Pretzels in China and embarked on their venture in 2008. What followed were four harrowing years of red tape, headaches and cultural clashes. Read more of this post

President Xi: China needs courage for reforms, like “gnawing on a hard bone”; Xi stressed again the importance of innovation and technology in breaking through the bottleneck restriction for development and solve deeply rooted problems.

China needs courage for reforms, like “gnawing on a hard bone”: Xi

• Xinhua 

2013-03-06

Communist Party of China general-secretary Xi Jinping on Tuesday called for courage like “wading through a dangerous shoal” to help deepen reforms in the country’s development.

While joining national legislators from China’s economic hub of Shanghai to deliberate the government work report, Xi compared the difficulty facing the country’s deepened reform and opening up to that in “storming a fortification.”

The report was delivered Tuesday morning by premier Wen Jiabao at the parliament’s annual session.

“We must have courage like gnawing on a hard bone and wading through a dangerous shoal,” said Xi, who is general secretary of the CPC Central Committee.

The government should give more respect to the law of the market and play a better role in advancing reform and opening up, Xi said.

While deliberating the government work report, Xi stressed again the importance of innovation and technology in breaking through the bottleneck restriction for development and solve deeply rooted problems.

Government and society should facilitate innovation with a global vision to come up with core technologies to drive industrial development, he added.

Shanghai saw a rush of people seeking a divorce over the past two days as couples worked out a way to escape the looming 20 percent tax on the profit from house sales.

Couples in rush to divorce as house sales tax looms

Created: 2013-3-6 1:46:08, Updated: 2013-3-6 1:54:53

Author:Hu Min

Shanghai saw a rush of people seeking a divorce over the past two days as couples worked out a way to escape the looming 20 percent tax on the profit from house sales.

Marriage registrars confirmed that the dramatic surge was triggered by the central government’s property curbs announcement last week, with many couples seeking a quick divorce but a remarriage shortly after.

Houses bought more than five years ago as a seller’s only residence are exempt from tax when resold. But families who own two houses and want to sell one of them are now targets in the government’s bid to curb speculation in the property market. If the couples divorce, each spouse will then own a property and one of them can sell the apartment that is tax exempt. After the transaction is complete, the couples get married again.  Read more of this post

Traders Flee Asia Hedge Funds as Haven Becomes Dead End

Traders Flee Asia Hedge Funds as Haven Becomes Dead End

Paul Smith moved from London to Hong Kong to work in Asia’s hedge-fund industry almost 17 years ago, and he rode the boom to its peak. Last year, like other industry veterans, he quit.

“I decided not to wait the cycle out but to do something more productive with my time,” said Smith, 53, who remains in the city heading the Asia-Pacific office of the nonprofit CFA Institute, the global association of chartered financial analysts. “The hedge-fund industry in Asia will continue to struggle to raise funds for the next few years as banks continue to have liquidity issues.”

Hedge-fund managers, traders and analysts in Asia are quitting as assets have failed to recover after the 2008 global financial crisis, and trading losses have left a majority of funds unable to collect performance fees. They’re moving to mutual funds, endowments, consulting firms and companies outside of the money-management business, often at a cut in pay.

Asian hedge-fund assets are 28 percent below their 2007 peak, according to data provider Eurekahedge Pte. Globally, money overseen by the funds increased 21 percent since 2007 to a new high of $2.3 trillion as of December, data from Chicago- based Hedge Fund Research Inc. show.

A total of 296 Asian hedge funds liquidated in the two years to December, 33 more than the number that started. On a global basis, 1,839 new funds outnumber those that shut by 371, according to Eurekahedge. Read more of this post

Audis Trump China Patriotism as Local Brands Falter

Audis Trump China Patriotism as Local Brands Falter

By Bloomberg News – Mar 5, 2013

China is pressuring bureaucrats to buy locally branded cars to help domestic automakers and cut lavish spending of taxpayers’ money. That’s unless you are a high-level government official with an Audi A6L.

At Beijing’s Great Hall of the People yesterday, where Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao was addressing a crowd of almost 3,000 delegates, only those senior enough could park in the nearby north gate and southern courtyard. The scene: dozens of gleaming black Audi sedans waiting for their VIP occupants to emerge from the National People’s Congress.

“We should try to use Chinese cars when possible and actively advocate our officials to use them,” Guo Gengmao, governor of central Henan province, said yesterday when asked whether he will swap his Audi for a local brand. “But we should do so in a practical way and switch cars when we need to replace the old ones. Otherwise, it’s a big waste to replace cars when they’re still good to use.” Read more of this post

More Trouble for the Big Four in China: Pushing Prudent Analysis or Propaganda?

More Trouble for the Big Four in China: Pushing Prudent Analysis or Propaganda?

Peter Fuhrman is Chairman, Founder & CEO at China First Capital, (中国首创）a leading China-focused specialist international investment bank and advisory firm for private capital markets and M&A transactions.

March 6th, 2013

This is not a good time for the Big Four accounting firms in China. The SEC has charged themwith breaking securities law, while one of the group, Deloitte, is now in serious hot water in the US, facing a shareholder class action in Delaware for aiding a US-listed Chinese company in defrauding US investors. If Deloitte loses, or opts to settle, it could uncork a tidal wave of copycat claims that would do serious, perhaps irreparable damage to the China business of Deloitte, and then also possibly to Ernst & Yong, Price WaterhouseCoopers and KPMG.

The charges against the Big Four all boil down to allegations they were either negligent in fulfilling their statutory duties, or in cahoots with bad guys scheming to defraud US investors. The implication is that their willy-nilly pursuit of fees led the Big Four to cut corners, surrender objectivity, and allow their judgment to become corrupted.

Similar doubts can be raised about the quality, credibility and soundness of the judgments the accountants provide in assessing China’s private equity industry. Even as the PE market began to slide into serious trouble last year, the accountants kept talking up the industry. In particular, it’s worth reading the two big and well-publicized reports on China private equity produced by Ernst & Young  and PWC. Both can be downloaded by clicking here. E&Y Report.PWC Report. Read more of this post

Chinese companies have RMB 20 Trillion of receivables

全国企业应收账款规模达20万亿 商务部预警风险

商务部称将适时扩大商业保理试点范围

2013-03-06 　　作者：记者 孙韶华 实习生 周文其/北京报道　　来源：经济参考报

5日，由中国服务贸易协会和商务部研究院合办的“首届中国商业保理行业峰会”发布了一份名为《中国商业保理行业研究报告2012》的报告。报告指出，应收账款规模持续上升风险加大，据估计全国企业应收账款规模在20万亿元以上。此外，商务部研究院对非金融类上市公司的财务状况监测结果表明，2012年我国上市公司财务风险已经为近十年来最大。
上述报告称，2012年受世界经济复苏明显放缓和国内经济下行压力加大的影响，国际国内市场需求总体不足，我国各行业产能过剩问题较为突出，在此背景下，企业应收账款规模持续上升，回收周期不断延长，应收账款拖欠和坏账风险明显加大，企业周转资金紧张状况进一步加剧。据业内人士估计，全国企业的应收账款规模在20万亿以上。
以国内工业企业为例，国家统计局数据显示，截至2012年12月，全国规模以上(主营业务收入2000万元及以上)工业企业应收账款总额82189.9亿元，较去年同期增长了17.63%，比流动资产总额增速快了5.6个百分点。应收账款总额占全国规模以上工业流动资产总额的比重为22.68%，较去年同期增加了1.08%。全国规模以上工业企业应收账款周转率12.05次，比去年同期降低0.02次。
“应收账款规模正呈现出规模大、风险高的特点。另据我们对上市公司财务状况的监测，去年上市公司财务安全状况是近十年来最大的。”商务部研究院信用部主任韩家平在论坛上表示，据统计，截至2012年10月31日，2471家上市公司应收账款达到2.22万亿元，同比上升近18%。如剔除金融类上市公司及中石化、中石油的数据，其他上市公司2012年前三季度的应收账款同比上升超过23%。其中，与宏观经济休戚相关的基建制造、煤炭钢铁、化工有色等大行业的应收账款同比增长数据均高于平均水平，达到30%—40%，整体表现为外部欠款严重；煤炭开采业更甚，2012年前三季度煤炭开采业公司的应收账款同比增长达到79.65%；此外，服装家纺类上市公司的应收账款同比增长接近40%。
据《经济参考报》记者了解，去年，我国企业应收账款规模持续上升、“三角债”抬头风险加大的问题已经引起政府高层重视，工信部、银监会、商务部等多个部委曾展开一轮调研摸底。
当前，应收账款规模依然居高不下，业内人士分析，一方面与国内外宏观经济形势和行业发展情况相关，企业资金周转出现困难。另一方面，我国信用体系建设缺失也推高了坏账率进而加剧了风险。据商务部的统计，我国企业每年因信用缺失导致的直接和间接经济损失高达6000亿元。
业内分析认为，信用服务业尤其是保理业的发展可以成为国内信用服务体系建设的一个突破口。据了解，商务部已经于2012年6月下发通知，同意在天津滨海新区、上海浦东新区开展商业保理试点，探索商业保理发展途径。截至2013年1月底，我国已注册的保理公司达到85家，其中内资64家，外资21家。
商务部市场秩序司巡视员温再兴说，当前市场信用环境不好，应收账款拖欠和三角债的问题是普遍的。商业保理业的发展对于解决我国三角债问题、中小企业融资难问题会有很大帮助。
温再兴透露，下一步商务部将稳步推进商业保理试点工作，“拟成立的公司要按照标准和条件严格把关，内外资标准是统一的。对于已经成立的公司要重新登记。对于想要参加试点的城市在严格条件的基础上，适当扩大试点的范围。”“同时商务部正在开发商务保理直报统计系统，商务保理企业都要纳入其中，我们要求所有的企业都不能游离于我们的监管之外。”

How a Request from SASAC Fell on the Deaf Ears of Property Developers; Beijing asked central government-controlled businesses to exit the real estate industry, but its notice has been largely ignored

03.05.2013 18:55

How a Request from SASAC Fell on the Deaf Ears of Property Developers

Beijing asked central government-controlled businesses to exit the real estate industry, but its notice has been largely ignored

By staff reporter Zhu Yishi

(Beijing) – In early 2010 the central government enacted policies to cool the real estate market. While the curbs have, to some extent, had their intended effect, government-controlled companies that should be busy with other business have prospered in property.

In January, eight commercial plots were sold in Beijing, and the buyers were either central government-controlled companies or state-owned enterprises (SOEs), data from Yahao Real Estate Selling & Consulting Solution Agency shows. Last year 37 residential plots were sold in the capital, and central government-controlled firms and SOEs bought 24.

These central government-controlled companies are holding their own in their adopted field. Last year, residential property giant China Vanke Co. Ltd., which is not this type of firm, had sales of more than 100 billion yuan.

In comparison, state-controlled China State Construction Engineering Corp. (CSCEC) had a similar sales figure, and China Railway Group Ltd. and China Railway Construction Corp. Ltd (CRCC) both had sales of 20 billion yuan last year. The latter two only entered the real estate industry in 2010.

This is evidence that Beijing’s request for central government-controlled companies whose main business was not real estate to exit the industry is being ignored.

The reason is two-fold. Zhou Fangsheng, former deputy director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission’s (SASAC) enterprise reform bureau, says for starters the property sector is very profitable. Also, the companies are assessed on their profitability, and these assessments are linked to executives’ pay.

The companies’ path to success in the real estate industry is aided by two factors. First, because the companies are controlled by the state, it is easy for them to get bank loans needed to finance projects. Also, local governments offer them preferential prices on land. Read more of this post

Lessons from past Dow milestones; As the Dow pierces an all-time high, a look at previous breakthroughs

March 5, 2013, 4:42 p.m. EST

Lessons from past Dow milestones

As the Dow pierces an all-time high, a look at previous breakthroughs

By Jonnelle Marte

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its highest level ever Tuesday — ending with a new high of 14,253.77, more than 100 points above the 14,164.52 record last hit in October 2007. 

While that new all-time high may just be a number — the market didn’t undergo a magical transformation upon hitting pre-crisis levels — experts say such milestones can have a psychological impact on investors. As the Dow reclaims lost ground, some investors are reflecting on how far they’ve come since the financial crisis. Some are still trying to bounce back, but many have recovered what they lost in the crash of 2008. The average participant in a 401(k) plan broke even between 2007 and 2010, and many savers are now better off than they were in 2007, according to Vanguard. The average account balance was $86,000 at the end of 2012, 10% more than the average balance at the end of 2007. (Of course, those higher balances include investor contributions, not just market gains.) See: What’s the big deal about the 2007 highs?

But for all the investor excitement around market milestones, investing pros say these thresholds don’t really move markets too much up or down. While investors often get swept away when the market is near key thresholds — causing them to ignore important factors like stock valuations — analysts say monetary policy and economic growth drive markets. Indeed, some investing pros are skeptical about how long the run will last. See: Druckenmiller says ‘it’s going to end very badly.’

Here’s a look back at some of the Dow’s biggest milestones, what happened next — and what lessons were learned. Read more of this post

Copper Market Prepares for a Flood; Price of the Industrial Metal Has Plunged Amid Forecasts of the Biggest Increase in Output in 13 Years

Updated March 5, 2013, 8:06 p.m. ET

Copper Market Prepares for a Flood

Price of the Industrial Metal Has Plunged Amid Forecasts of the Biggest Increase in Output in 13 Years

By TATYANA SHUMSKY

The copper market is bracing for a wave of new mine openings this year. Copper prices recently fell to three-month lows as investors and traders anticipate an onslaught of supplies, estimated to be the biggest increase in global copper mine output in 13 years. At the same time, the outlook for growth in copper demand remains dim: The No. 2 and No. 3 users of the industrial metal, Europe and the U.S., continue to face economic headwinds. Copper demand is highly correlated with manufacturing activity because it is used in many goods, from electronics to automobiles to home appliances.

Read more of this post

“The Big Mac Mirage”: America is actually terrible at globalization; U.S. companies derived less than 10% of their overall revenues from emerging markets

“The Big Mac Mirage”: America is actually terrible at globalization

By Tim Fernholz — 6 hours ago

Coke is so prevalent around the world that non-profits look to its supply chain for help on distributing aid. McDonalds, in 122 different countries, is so widespread that there’s a foreign relations theory that no two countries hosting the burger franchise will go to war, although the strong version of that theory is well dead. And Wal-Mart is the world’s third largest global employer, after the American and Chinese militaries, respectively.

The US must be great at globalization, right?

Unfortunately, no, according to Bhaskar Chakravorti, the director of Tufts’ University’s Institute for Business in the Global Context. He says all these examples represent “the myth of American global market power”—they are outliers that disguise the real failing of American multinationals to succeed around the world, and especially in fast-growing emerging markets. Despite what you might hear, he says “we are extremely under globalized.” Here’s an excerpt from a forthcoming paper he’s written with fellow economist Gita Rao (emphasis mine):

In 2010, emerging markets represented 36% of global GDP; these markets already account for the majority of the world’s oil and steel consumption, 46% of world retail sales, 52% of all purchases of motor vehicles and 82% of mobile phone subscriptions. With two-thirds of global growth coming from these markets, in a decade they will account for the majority of the world’s economic value. Yet U.S. companies derived less than 10% of their overall revenues from emerging markets: about as little as 7%, according to HSBC estimates for 2010. The 100 largest companies from the developed world overall made 17% of their revenues from emerging markets, according to a McKinsey report; in other words, the U.S. lags not only emerging market firms in capturing share in emerging markets, but it lags the developed world overall. By considering the difference between the “absolute potential” represented by the 36% number or, to take a much more conservative benchmark, the global peer average of 17% and the U.S. share of 7%, we derive two measures of the gap – and the degree to which U.S. industry has not participated in global growth. Read more of this post

China is spending more on policing its own people (RMB 769bn) than on its defense budget (RMB 720bn)

China is spending more on policing its own people than on its defense budget

By Lily Kuo — 6 hours ago

Red alert! China plans to spend 720 billion yuan ($114 billion) on its military this year, according to a budget released at the National People’s Congress this morning. With the world’s second-largest military in terms of spending, the Chinese government has increased its defense budget by double-digit percentages annually since 2000. This year’s increase will be 10.7%, similar to last year’s and faster than the target GDP growth of 7.5%.

But perhaps this is the headline the Chinese government would rather the media focus on. Buried in the budget numbers is another figure: 769 billion yuan, to be spent on what is officially termed “public security.” That means money for China’s vast network of official and unofficial police, armed militia, jails and overall state security, i.e. keeping the country’s 1.3 billion people in check as discontent mounts over pollution (paywall), government corruption, and inequality. Chinese officials have countered that this is a misrepresentation, saying that some of the funds also go to things like improving public transportation or food safety. Read more of this post

Fear of China bank crisis keeps Aberdeen alert

Fear of China bank crisis keeps Aberdeen alert

By Elva Muk | 6 March 2013 (48 minutes ago)

If the nation’s shadow-banking system blows up, banks will foot the bill, its managers argue. But they see opportunity in HK-domiciled firms exposed to Greater China consumption. Aberdeen International fund managers are fearful of a China banking crisis, but see opportunity in Hong Kong-domiciled firms exposed to Greater China consumption. Asian equities manager Kathy Xu argues one of the biggest downside risks to China’s stock market this year is the country’s shadow-banking, or private lending, system. As a consequence she is bearish on the mainland banking sector. “This area is not transparent nor strongly regulated enough,” she says. “If the shadow banking [system] burst, we worry what banks would have to pay the bills.” China’s shadow-banking sector is enormous, encompassing trust funds, wealth management products (WMPs), products from securities firms, underground lending and local government financing vehicles. Together it is estimated these account for Rmb22.8 trillion ($3.6 trillion), or 44% of China’s national GDP. Read more of this post

Berkshire’s BNSF Railway to Test Switch to Natural Gas; BNSF, the largest railroad in the U.S., estimates it is the second-biggest user of diesel in the country, after the U.S. Navy.

March 5, 2013, 6:24 p.m. ET

Berkshire’s BNSF Railway to Test Switch to Natural Gas

By RUSSELL GOLD

BNSF Railway Co., one of the country’s biggest consumers of diesel fuel, plans this year to test using natural gas to power its locomotives instead.

If successful, the experiment could weaken oil’s dominance as a transportation fuel and provide a new outlet for the glut of cheap natural gas in North America.

The surplus, spurred by new technologies that unlock the fuel from underground rock formations, has sent natural-gas prices plummeting. That has prompted industries from electric utilities to tugboat operators to switch to gas. If freight rail joins the parade, it would usher in one of the most sweeping changes to the railroad industry in decades.

“This could be a transformational event for our railroad,” BNSF Chief Executive Matt Rose said of the plan, which hasn’t been publicly announced. Shifting to natural gas would “rank right up there” with the industry’s historic transition away from steam engines last century, he said.

Freight railroads overwhelmingly are powered by diesel fuel refined from crude oil. BNSF, the largest railroad in the U.S., estimates it is the second-biggest user of diesel in the country, after the U.S. Navy. Read more of this post

Druckenmiller: “When You Get This Kind Of Rigging, It Will End Badly”; When even Home Depot’s Ken Langone is questioning the reality of this rally (CEO of one of the best performing stocks since the Dow last traded here), you have to be a little concerned

Druckenmiller: “When You Get This Kind Of Rigging, It Will End Badly”

Tyler Durden on 03/05/2013 14:00 -0500

When even Home Depot’s Ken Langone is questioning the reality of this rally (CEO of one of the best performing stocks since the Dow last traded here), you have to be a little concerned. However, it is Duquesne’s Stanley Druckenmiller’s point that with QE4EVA it is impossible to know when this will end but warns that “all the lobsters are in the pot” now as he notes that “if you print enough money, everything is subsidized – bonds, stocks, real estate.” He dismisses the notion of any sell-off in bonds for the same reason as the Fed is buying $85 bn per month (75-80% all off Treasury issuance). The Fed has cancelled all market signals (whether these are to Congress or market participants) and just as we did in the 1970s, we will find out about all the mal-investments sooner or later. “This is a big, big gamble,” he notes, “manipulating the most important price in all of free markets,” that ends one of only two ways, a mal-investment bust (as we saw in 2007-8) or full debt monetization and “off we go into inflation.” Read more of this post

Suppliers prefer Aldi to Coles, Woolies because it pays invoices faster and is easier to deal with

Suppliers prefer Aldi to Coles, Woolies

March 6, 2013

Lucy Battersby

Easier to deal with: Suppliers say Aldi pays faster than the big two supermarket chains. Photo: Peter Braig

A number of suppliers producing a range of groceries have spoken out against the dominant supermarket chains, Woolworths and Coles, saying they prefer dealing with German-owned rival Aldi.

BusinessDay has revealed Woolworths produced a dossier that claims Aldi’s arrival in Australia has led to a rise in private label products and a tough competitive environment.

Several suppliers have spoken out about their experience supplying Australian supermarkets on the condition of anonymity, fearing contracts would be cancelled in retribution. They say they prefer dealing with Aldi because it pays invoices faster and is easier to deal with. One said it was ”so much better and much more stable to do business with”. Another said Coles and Woolworths reduced supplier prices and took an extra 3 er cent to cover marketing costs when products go on sale, where Aldi would absorb the losses sales into its own profit margin.

Woolworths enjoys some of the best profit margins in the world, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst David Errington. ‘Within its Australian food and liquor business, Woolworths currently enjoys the highest margins of any retailer globally, at … 9.3 per cent (lease adjusted), compared to its nearest global competitor at 7.9 per cent,” Mr Errington wrote in a note to clients. Read more of this post

China’s outgoing PM Wen issues unusual warning on growth, that a 7.5% GDP target will be ‘hard to attain; President Xi’s task exposes limits of central control

Last updated: March 5, 2013 10:11 am

Wen issues China growth warning

By Jamil Anderlini and Simon Rabinovitch in Beijing

China’s outgoing premier issued an annual growth target of 7.5 per cent on Tuesday, while giving an unusual warning that this pace might not be reached easily this year.

In his final “state of the union” speech, Premier Wen Jiabao described the growth target, in line with last year’s, as a “goal we will have to work hard to attain”. Addressing the National People’s Congress, a largely ceremonial parliament, he also acknowledged a “growing conflict between downward pressure on economic growth and excess production capacity”. The annual economic growth target is more of a signalling device than a forecast, but if the economy were to grow by exactly 7.5 per cent this year it would be the slowest growth since 1990. Read more of this post