The Complete Chartpack Of The Top Global Themes For The Next Five Years

April 13, 2013 Leave a comment

The Complete Chartpack Of The Top Global Themes For The Next Five Years

Tyler Durden on 04/12/2013 17:45 -0400

The investment environment is changing at a rate that’s representative of global economic imbalances, fund flows, and geopolitical risks. We believe this decade will continue to witness greatly increased volatility and instability in the economies of the world and the global financial system. Very few past models are still valid (and most have been proved ’empirically’ in real-time to be entirely fallacious). Such a situation has contributed to the extreme uncertainty that currently prevails. Our guiding principle is to help investors understand and navigate through all the complexities of an unstable, inflation-prone world. The following ten themes will be key drivers of financial market performance over the next 1 to 5 years.

  • Theme 1 WINTER OF OUR DISCONTENT – The Long-Wave decline
  • Theme 2 BUBBLE IN SAFETY – The US bond market top
  • Theme 3 LORDS OF FINANCE – The coming loss of central bank indpendence
  • Theme 4 SUPER SAD TRUE LOVE STORY – Europe (Break-up)
  • Theme 5 MRS. WATANABE – Japan
  • Theme 6 RICHISTAN – The rise of the Asian consumer
  • Theme 7 DEVIL TAKE THE HINDMOST – Currency games
  • Theme 8 SUPERMONEY – Precious metals
  • Theme 9 THE RICHEST MAN IN BABYLON – Iraq
  • Theme 10 WHEN MONEY DIES – The great social disorder

World at a glance

In the investment world, anyone who foresees and understands the trends, who is openminded, and who keeps emotions at bay,

The structural backdrop for a global macro strategy

  • Developed economy governments are insolvent
  • The process of deleveraging and global rebalancing is underway
  • Outsized dislocations from “non-economic” policy actions
  • The loss of central bank independence with likely unintended consequences
  • Ongoing battle between deflation and reflationary forces
  • Shorter and more volatile economic cycles that are globally synchronized
  • Drop of confidence in policymakers, institutions and the “system” at large
  • Increased risk of geopolitical tensions and social conflict
  • Market prices only reflect fair value by accident and in passing

“The social object of skilled investment should be to defeat the dark forces of time and ignorance which envelope our future.” – Lord Keynes

Filed under Macro Trends

About bambooinnovator
Kee Koon Boon (“KB”) is the co-founder and director of HERO Investment Management which provides specialized fund management and investment advisory services to the ARCHEA Asia HERO Innovators Fund (www.heroinnovator.com), the only Asian SMID-cap tech-focused fund in the industry. KB is an internationally featured investor rooted in the principles of value investing for over a decade as a fund manager and analyst in the Asian capital markets who started his career at a boutique hedge fund in Singapore where he was with the firm since 2002 and was also part of the core investment committee in significantly outperforming the index in the 10-year-plus-old flagship Asian fund. He was also the portfolio manager for Asia-Pacific equities at Korea’s largest mutual fund company. Prior to setting up the H.E.R.O. Innovators Fund, KB was the Chief Investment Officer & CEO of a Singapore Registered Fund Management Company (RFMC) where he is responsible for listed Asian equity investments. KB had taught accounting at the Singapore Management University (SMU) as a faculty member and also pioneered the 15-week course on Accounting Fraud in Asia as an official module at SMU. KB remains grateful and honored to be invited by Singapore’s financial regulator Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to present to their top management team about implementing a world’s first fact-based forward-looking fraud detection framework to bring about benefits for the capital markets in Singapore and for the public and investment community. KB also served the community in sharing his insights in writing articles about value investing and corporate governance in the media that include Business Times, Straits Times, Jakarta Post, Manual of Ideas, Investopedia, TedXWallStreet. He had also presented in top investment, banking and finance conferences in America, Italy, Sydney, Cape Town, HK, China. He has trained CEOs, entrepreneurs, CFOs, management executives in business strategy & business model innovation in Singapore, HK and China.

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