US Treasury Finally Admits The Truth: It’s All POMO

August 14, 2013 Leave a comment

US Treasury Finally Admits The Truth: It’s All POMO

Tyler Durden on 08/13/2013 18:15 -0400

No One Dares Fight Fed_0

Back in 2010, when few still dared to question that the entire move in the market is predicated on the Fed’s daily POMO (then still on QE2), we laid out, in a way so easy even a caveman could grasp it, how every tiny move in the stock market is nothing but a function of the Fed’s daily POMO on those days in which Bernanke would be directly injecting liquidity into the capital markets using his Primary Dealer frontmen. Since then nearly three years have passed, and thousands of POMO days. All of which brings us to this quarter’s Treasury refunding presentation, and specifically the section “Effects of policy and market structure” from the Presentation to the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, in which we learn that we had in fact been right all along, and that perhaps for the first time ever, the Treasury admitted that not only “no one dares fight the Fed” but that, as expected, it is “all POMO.” There, hidden on page 26, or slide 76 of 100, where the Treasury discusses “The Impact Of Monetary Policy”, the biggest “conspiracy theory” of all becomes merely the latest conspiracy fact. First, for corporate bonds…But just as importantly, for stocks.

No One Dares Fight Fed - Stocks_0_0

But most importantly, and tying it all together, POMO. Only this time, finally, the US Treasury finally admits it.

TBAC POMO_0_0

So, thanks to the US Treasury, we know that between January 2009 and April 2013, on days in which the Fed POMO was more than $5 billion, the stock market rose a total of 570 points, on days in which the POMO was less than $5 billion, the cumulative stock market gain was “only” 141 points, and when there was no POMO, the S&P gained… -51 points. And like that, another conspiracy theory bites the dust. Are any left? Oh yes, Gold isn’t manipulated because alleging “gold manipulation” is unfit for polite, dignified society and is best left to the realms of the conspiracy theorists.

Source: US Treasury

Filed under Macro Trends

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Kee Koon Boon (“KB”) is the co-founder and director of HERO Investment Management which provides specialized fund management and investment advisory services to the ARCHEA Asia HERO Innovators Fund (www.heroinnovator.com), the only Asian SMID-cap tech-focused fund in the industry. KB is an internationally featured investor rooted in the principles of value investing for over a decade as a fund manager and analyst in the Asian capital markets who started his career at a boutique hedge fund in Singapore where he was with the firm since 2002 and was also part of the core investment committee in significantly outperforming the index in the 10-year-plus-old flagship Asian fund. He was also the portfolio manager for Asia-Pacific equities at Korea’s largest mutual fund company. Prior to setting up the H.E.R.O. Innovators Fund, KB was the Chief Investment Officer & CEO of a Singapore Registered Fund Management Company (RFMC) where he is responsible for listed Asian equity investments. KB had taught accounting at the Singapore Management University (SMU) as a faculty member and also pioneered the 15-week course on Accounting Fraud in Asia as an official module at SMU. KB remains grateful and honored to be invited by Singapore’s financial regulator Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to present to their top management team about implementing a world’s first fact-based forward-looking fraud detection framework to bring about benefits for the capital markets in Singapore and for the public and investment community. KB also served the community in sharing his insights in writing articles about value investing and corporate governance in the media that include Business Times, Straits Times, Jakarta Post, Manual of Ideas, Investopedia, TedXWallStreet. He had also presented in top investment, banking and finance conferences in America, Italy, Sydney, Cape Town, HK, China. He has trained CEOs, entrepreneurs, CFOs, management executives in business strategy & business model innovation in Singapore, HK and China.

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