Concerns grow over Indian industrials’ debt burdens

August 14, 2013 2:22 pm

Concerns grow over Indian industrials’ debt burdens

By James Crabtree

Concerns are growing in India that a worsening economic slowdown in Asia’s third-largest economy may be increasing debt burdens at some of the country’s most important industrial companies to unsustainable levels. New research from Credit Suisse reveals that 10 of the country’s most heavily indebted industrial conglomerates, including billionaire Anil Ambani’s Reliance companies along with the Vedanta and Essar groups, had combined gross debts of $102bn at the end of the last financial year, up 15 per cent from the year before. Many Indian industrialists have struggled amid the nation’s recent decline in economic growth, which has been exacerbated by chronic regulatory problems delaying crucial investments in power plants and infrastructure projects.With revenues reduced, many companies have been left with mounting repayment obligations.

A number of the groups are also suffering from the after-effects of ambitious capital investment programmes undertaken over the past decade, analysts said.

“Many of the larger industrial groups in India started on major expansions when economic times were good, and these projects were built on the anticipation of continued strong growth in India, which hasn’t happened,” says Abhishek Dangra, associate director at rating agency Standard & Poor’s in Mumbai

Fresh worries about rising debt levels among India’s larger corporates come at a time of heightened concern over the nation’s banking system, where non-performing asset levels have jumped from about 2.5 per cent to about 4 per cent of loans over the past 12 months.

The predicaments of major industrial houses and bankers alike have been worsened by emergency measures from the Reserve Bank of India last month to stabilise the rupee, which most economists think will further lower economic growth over the coming year, and also increase problem loans.

The Credit Suisse research reveals that all but one of the 10 companies, which also include billionaire Gautam Adani’s Adani group alongside other power, infrastructure and metals-focused conglomerates, have increased their gross debt burden over the past 12 months.

The conditions facing some of these companies could worsen in the coming year, Credit Suisse suggests, especially for those with interests in India’s power sector, which is beset by fuel supply problems that are undermining the viability of new generating capacity.

The 10 companies had an average ratio of net debt to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of 5.6 during the last financial year, a measure often used to assess ability to repay debt.

A net debt to ebitda ratio of more than five often indicates a company that could have difficulties servicing its debt, although the aggregate ratio for the 10 companies has fallen slightly, down from 6.3 in the financial year ending in March 2012.

The research places Mr Ambani’s Reliance Group as the most heavily indebted of the 10 companies, with gross debts of around $18bn, although this figure also includes debts from the balance sheet of his financial company, Reliance Capital.

Reliance said: “Reliance Group is at the forefront in setting up over $20bn worth of attractive infrastructure projects.”

“Our levels of debt are reasonable and commensurate looking to the scale and magnitude of the projects we are developing and their assured high quality revenues, and also in line with global standards for financing of similar projects.”

Essar said: “The majority of Essar Group’s debt has been taken by our individual companies for financing specific projects. These debts are sanctioned based on globally accepted debt equity ratios, and based on the detailed assessment made by the financing banks, with regard to the capability of the project and servicing these debts from their respective earnings.”

Vedanta and Adani declined to comment.

August 15, 2013, 3:08 a.m. ET

India Loan Woes Go From Bad to Worse

India’s Slowing Economy Exacerbates Banks’ Nonperforming Loans

ABHEEK BHATTACHARYA

Indian banks’ loan books are already a problem. But they’re going to weaken further.

At State Bank of India, 500112.BY +0.27% the country’s largest lender by assets, nonperforming loans jumped to 5.7% of the total at June 30 from 5% a year ago. AtPunjab National Bank, 532461.BY -0.26% bad loans jumped to 4.8% from 3.4% a year earlier. Standard & Poor’s says the ratio of NPLs sector-wide will increase from 3.4% in March this year to 3.9% by March 2014 and 4.4% a year later.

India’s slowing economy is the main problem. Overall growth slumped to a 10-year low of 5% in the fiscal year ended March 2013.

The situation is likely to worsen. The Reserve Bank of India forecasts only a slight recovery in the economy in the near term, with growth rising to 5.5% in the current fiscal year. Borrowers will remain under pressure when it comes to servicing debt. Credit Suisse says most NPLs so far are at small- and midsize businesses but larger companies will feel the strain too as relatively low economic growth persists.

Worse, a pending rule change could force banks to record more bad loans.

Currently, the RBI says lenders must record a provision of at least 15% of any loan classified as nonperforming. Alternatively, banks can restructure loans, easing the terms for borrowers, and record a mandated provision of just 2.75% of the loan.

Naturally, some banks prefer to go the restructuring route which likely means they are keeping some zombie firms alive rather than take a bigger hit from downgrading their loans to NPL status. As of March, 5.7% of all loans by India’s banks were classified as restructured, compared with 3.4% classified as NPLs.

From April 2015, though, the RBI will restrict the restructuring option to a few sectors such as infrastructure. The move could result in a much higher proportion of NPLs across the banking system and a lower proportion of loans being restructured.

State-owned banks will probably be hardest hit by deteriorating asset quality. They’re typically more exposed to risky areas of the economy compared with privately owned banks. At SBI, 28% of loans go to agriculture and small businesses, more than double the proportion at ICICI Bank, India’s largest private lender.

For the banks, India’s slowing growth threatens a double whammy. Slowing growth will likely curtail loan growth. At the same time, profitability is sure to take a hit as the existing loan book sours.