Leveraged ETFs, the Flash Crash, and 1987

Aug 20, 2013

Leveraged ETFs, the Flash Crash, and 1987

By Paul Vigna

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Okay, this is going to be a wonky post. But it brings together a high-risk investing strategy, the flash crash, and the Crash of 1987, and shows how little-known corners of the investing world can still have a big market impact.

You could be forgiven if you’ve never heard of leveraged ETFs. But this smallish corner of the investing universe could, under the right circumstances, do to the market what portfolio insurance did to the market in 1987: that is, force a liquidation that sparks a big selloff. Read more of this post

NFL Bets on Fantasy Lounges as TV Sports Keeps Some Fans at Home

NFL Bets on Fantasy Lounges as TV Sports Keeps Some Fans at Home

The National Football League’s biggest partner is becoming a competitor. Television is becoming so adept at covering games that the NFL, which gets about half its $9.7 billion annual revenue from broadcast fees, wants to be sure that the comforts of home don’t become more attractive than the thrills of the stadium.

As teams try to entice fans with things like huge stadium video screens — the Houston Texans last week unveiled a pair that each cover one-third of an acre — the league is embracing fantasy football as one way to keep people paying to watch games in person. The Jacksonville Jaguars plan to open a fantasy football lounge at their EverBank Field this season to cater to fans as interested in highlights from other games as the action on the field. The San Francisco 49ers and Atlanta Falcons have plans for ones in their new buildings as well. Read more of this post

Currency Volatility in Emerging Market Is Unnerving Investors

AUGUST 20, 2013, 9:02 PM

Currency Volatility Is Unnerving Investors

By NATHANIEL POPPER

Lawmakers and central bankers in India, Indonesia, Turkey and several emerging-market economies are scrambling to contain the damage from falling currencies and to keep foreign investors from heading for the exits. Money has poured out of those economies over the last few weeks, pushing down the prices of a wide array of assets, including stocks, bonds and currencies. On Tuesday, the Indian rupee fell to a record low against the dollar, while the Indonesian rupiah dropped to its lowest level against the dollar since 2009. Read more of this post

If iTunes Radio won’t be profitable, what’s the point? Apple’s move into Internet radio isn’t really about Internet radio at all. Instead, it’s about keeping its users from other Internet radio products

If iTunes Radio won’t be profitable, what’s the point?

Diane Bullock, Minyanville11:10 a.m. EDT August 21, 2013

Apple’s move into Internet radio isn’t really about Internet radio at all.

When Apple got into the music business in April 2003, the company didn’t actually expect to make money at it. The iTunes store launched with only “break-even” ambition as far as Cupertino was concerned, merely acting as a hook for the real profit center: The iPod. So much for self-fulfilling prophecies. Five years in, iTunes had unseated Wal-Mart as the country’s leading music vendor and assumed the top spot in the global market by 2010. Last year’s sales hit $13.5 billion, with Apple generating up to 15% operating margin on gross revenue while commanding 64% of the world’s online music sales. Read more of this post

Disney to Shutter 10-Year-Old Toontown Multiplayer Game to shifts resources toward the larger Club Penguin and to mobile games; The change leaves Club Penguin as the only so-called virtual world operated by Disney

Disney to Shutter 10-Year-Old Toontown Multiplayer Game

Walt Disney Co. (DIS) will close its Toontown Online video game for kids after 10 years, as the company’s interactive unit shifts resources toward the larger Club Penguin and to mobile games.

Toontown, in which monthly members form teams to fight evil robots, will stop operating on Sept. 19, according to its website. The game made its debut in June 2003 and Disney has said it was the first massively multiplayer online game designed for kids and families. Read more of this post

DeNA, Gree Slump as Gamemakers Team Up on Marketing; the alliance will allow the companies to bypass platforms such as DeNA’s Mobage and Gree

DeNA, Gree Slump as Gamemakers Team Up on Marketing: Tokyo Mover

DeNA Co. (2432) and Gree Inc. (3632), Japan’s biggest social-game operators, slumped in Tokyo trading after gamemakers led by Sega Sammy Holdings Inc. (6460) said they would team up to promote each other’s titles for smartphones. DeNA, operator of the Mobage network, plunged as much as 9.3 percent to 1,924 yen, headed for the biggest decline in more than three months. Gree dropped as much as 7.5 percent. Sega, creator of Sonic the Hedgehog, developed a system to allow makers including Capcom Co. (9697) and Taito Corp. to display advertising of mobile app games by other members, Koji Ueda, a Sega spokesman, said by phone today. The Nikkei newspaper earlier today reported the alliance will allow the companies to bypass platforms such as DeNA’s Mobage and Gree. Gamemakers pay a commission to companies such as Gree and DeNA for games accessed through their platforms. “Overall, we view this as negative” for Gree and DeNA, David Gibson, a Tokyo-based analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd., said in a note today. “Developers continue to shift their resources away and not use recently launched app marketing initiatives announced by Gree/DeNA.” DeNA traded at 1,949 yen, down by 8.1 percent, as of 1:14 p.m. in Tokyo, extending its drop this year to 31 percent. Gree traded at 838 yen and has lost 37 percent this year, compared with a 30 percent advance for the broader Topix index.

To contact the reporter on this story: Naoko Fujimura in Tokyo at nfujimura@bloomberg.net

Japan’s nuclear crisis deepens, China expresses ‘shock’

Japan’s nuclear crisis deepens, China expresses ‘shock’

6:25am EDT

By Kiyoshi Takenaka and James Topham

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s nuclear crisis escalated to its worst level since a massive earthquake and tsunami crippled the Fukushima plant more than two years ago, with the country’s nuclear watchdog saying it feared more storage tanks were leaking contaminated water.

The U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said on Wednesday it viewed the situation at Fukushima “seriously” and was ready to help if called upon, while nearby China said it was “shocked” to hear contaminated water was still leaking from the plant, and urged Japan to provide information “in a timely, thorough and accurate way”. Read more of this post

A U.S. manufacturing comeback won’t rebuild the middle class

A U.S. manufacturing comeback won’t rebuild the middle class

By Nin-Hai Tseng, Writer August 21, 2013: 5:00 AM ET

Cheaper labor may bring about more jobs, but workers have less spending power.

FORTUNE — There’s been some good news lately about U.S. manufacturing — that sector of American industry once considered vital to the growth of the nation’s middle class. It’s well known manufacturing has been declining for decades, but experts, and some across corporate America, have been saying that many factors signal that factory jobs that have gone to China and other parts of the world are returning. Read more of this post

Should India be “investment grade?”

Should India be “investment grade?”

By Heather Timmons 2 hours ago

For more than a year, India has been teetering on the edge of a credit rating agency cliff: The country’s sovereign credit rating, a measure of its overall political and economic stability, is rated just one notch above “junk” by Fitch, Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s.

Surprisingly, the country has not yet fallen over that edge. Rating agencies are notoriously unreliable when it comes to judging the actual worthiness of a company, country or financial asset, and their performance in the run up to the subprime mortgage crisis (and subsequent testimony in the lawsuits afterward) has seriously undercut their reputations as objective advisors. Read more of this post

India Borrowing Costs at 2001 High Threaten Singh Goal

India Borrowing Costs at 2001 High Threaten Singh Goal

A surge in Indian sovereign debt costs to a 12-year high this week is threatening Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s plan to cut the budget deficit and fueling the fastest surge in credit risk since 2008.

Ten-year (GIND10YR) yields rose 72 basis points this month through yesterday to 8.92 percent, the most among 14 regional markets tracked by Bloomberg, touched the highest level since 2001 of 9.48 percent. They plunged 57 basis points today after the Reserve Bank of India said late yesterday it will buy long-dated notes via open-market auctions. Government debt in Indonesia added 68 basis points to 8.39 percent. Read more of this post

Plunging Rupiah Spurs Yudhoyono Into Action With Policy Plans

Plunging Rupiah Spurs Yudhoyono Into Action With Policy Plans

Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will announce measures on Friday to deal with a slowing economy and a currency that’s fallen to a four-year low. The government will draft a package of policies, and the rupiah’s plunge is the main problem to be tackled, Yudhoyono told reporters in Jakarta today. It will be difficult to reach a target of 6.3 percent expansion by relying on investment as exports decline, he said.

The move comes after Yudhoyono, due to hand over power in elections next year, gave a favorable assessment of his economic record in two speeches on Aug. 16. Since then, central bank data showed the current-account deficit widened to a record in the second quarter, the rupiah fell 3.6 percent and the Jakarta Composite index of shares slid 7.7 percent this week. Growth has slowed for the last four quarters, dipping below 6 percent in the three months through June for the first time since 2010. Read more of this post

Thailand Holds Rate as Rising Debt Curbs Room to Aid Economy

Thailand Holds Rate as Rising Debt Curbs Room to Aid Economy

Thailand kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a second straight meeting as rising household debt and capital outflows reduce scope for monetary easing to revive an economy in recession.

The Bank of Thailand held its one-day bond repurchase rate at 2.5 percent, with policy committee members voting six to one for the decision, it said in Bangkok today. Nineteen of 20 economists in a Bloomberg News survey predicted the outcome, while one saw a reduction to 2.25 percent as an economic contraction last quarter added to signs of a regional weakening. Read more of this post

Malaysia’s Central Bank Trims 2013 Forecast; Data From Malaysia Underscores Fragile Growth Prospects in Southeast Asia

Updated August 21, 2013, 10:29 a.m. ET

Malaysia’s Central Bank Trims 2013 Forecast

Data From Malaysia Underscores Fragile Growth Prospects in Southeast Asia

ABHRAJIT GANGOPADHYAY

KUALA LUMPUR—Slowing growth and a dwindling current-account surplus are adding to market concerns about Malaysia when capital is flowing quickly out of the region. The central bank on Wednesday cut Malaysia’s full-year growth outlook, citing weak external demand as gross domestic product grew 4.3% in the second quarter from a year earlier, short of market expectations for a 4.7% rise. Bank Negara Malaysia projected the economy would grow 4.5%-5.0% in 2013, down from 5.0%-6.0% previously. GDP grew 4.1% in the first quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis. The cut to the central bank’s forecast “is perhaps a pre-emptive step to tamp down market expectation,” said Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclay’s Capital. Read more of this post

Cheaper rivals eat into Apple’s China tablet share; A principal factor in the rise of Android tablets has been the falling price of components

August 21, 2013 11:09 am

Cheaper rivals eat into Apple’s China tablet share

By Kathrin Hille in Beijing and Sarah Mishkin in Hong Kong

Apple has lost more than 40 per cent of its share of the Chinese tablet market over the past year to cheaper rivals led by Samsung Electronics, as devices based on Google’s Android and other operating systems rapidly overtake the US company’s gadgets. In the second quarter, Apple shipped 1.48m iPads in China, 28 per cent of the tablets shipped in that market, according to research firm IDC. This was down from a 49 per cent market share a year ago. Samsung shipped 571,000, or 11 per cent of the total, in the second quarter of this year. The data echo statistics showing Apple is losing ground in the tablet market worldwide. Apple’s global tablet market share dropped to 32.4 per cent in the second quarter from 60.3 per cent a year earlier, IDC said earlier in August. Read more of this post

Entrepreneurial Exits and Innovation

Entrepreneurial Exits and Innovation

Vikas A. Aggarwal INSEAD – Entrepreneurship and Family Enterprise

David H. Hsu University of Pennsylvania – Management Department

August 5, 2013
INSEAD Working Paper No. 2013/89/EFE/ACGRE

Abstract: 
We examine how IPOs and acquisitions affect entrepreneurial innovation as measured by patent counts and forward patent citations. We construct a firm-year panel dataset of all venture capital-backed biotechnology firms founded between 198’22’008 tracked yearly through 2006. We address the possibility of unobserved self-selection into exit mode by using coarsened exact matching (CEM), and in two additional ways: (1) comparing firms that filed for an IPO (or announced a merger) with those not completing the transaction for reasons unrelated to innovation, and (2) using an instrumental variables approach. We find that innovation quality is highest under private ownership and lowest under public ownership, with acquisition intermediate between the two. Together with a set of within-exit mode analyses, these results are consistent with the proposition that information confidentiality mechanisms shape innovation outcomes. The results are not explained by inventor-level turnover following exit events or by firms’ pre-exit window dressing behavior.

Buying to Sell: Private Equity Buyouts and Industrial Restructuring

Buying to Sell: Private Equity Buyouts and Industrial Restructuring

Pehr-Johan Norback Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)

Lars Persson Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Joacim Tag Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)

July 29, 2013
CESifo Working Paper Series No. 4338

Abstract: 
We show how temporary ownership by private equity firms affects industry structure, competition and welfare. Temporary ownership leads to strong investment incentives because equilibrium resale prices are determined by buyers incentives to block rivals from obtaining assets. These incentives benefit consumers, but harm rivals in the industry. Evaluating optimal antitrust policy, we underscore that an active private equity market can aid antitrust authorities by triggering welfare-enhancing mergers and by preventing concentration in the industry. By spreading the cost of specializing in restructuring over multiple markets, private equity firms have stronger incentives than incumbents to invest in acquiring specialized restructuring skills.