If predictive power is not in the cards for economics, what is it good for?

AUGUST 24, 2013, 3:09 PM

What Is Economics Good For?

By ALEX ROSENBERG and TYLER CURTAIN

Recent debates over who is most qualified to serve as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve have focused on more than just the candidates’ theory-driven economic expertise. They have touched on matters of personality and character as well. This is as it should be. Given the nature of economies, and our ability to understand them, the task of the Fed’s next leader will be more a matter of craft and wisdom than of science. Read more of this post

Kaizen and the art of human wa maintenance

Kaizen and the art of human wa maintenance

An ex-resident and frequent visitor finds convenience and joy in the little things that Japan does so damn well

BY GLENN NEWMAN

AUG 26, 2013

Little things matter. This truth is hard-wired into the Japanese psyche. Kaizen — the Japanese practice of continuous improvement through small, incremental changes — is well-known and influential worldwide. At least in the West, kaizen is primarily thought of as a method for improving manufacturing, engineering and other business processes. But kaizen goes much deeper in Japan. Kaizen here is organic, ubiquitous and attuned to the physical and psychological needs of human beings. At its best, this “human-scale kaizen” (HSK) eliminates or eases many of the mundane uncertainties, annoyances and embarrassments of daily life. Here are but a few of the innumerable examples of HSK in Japan: Read more of this post

Adults salivate at Lego’s robot kits; Mindstorms sets more complex, powerful

Mindstorms sets more complex, powerful

Adults salivate at Lego’s robot kits

AP AUG 25, 2013

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Robot world: Will Gorman plays with a Mindstorms cobralike robot in

SAN JOSE, CALIFORNIA – Few are more excited about Lego’s new Mindstorms sets rolling out next month than Silicon Valley engineers. Many of them were drawn to the tech sector by the flagship kits that came on the market in 1998, introducing computerized movement to the traditional snap-together toy blocks and allowing the young innovators to build their first robots. Now, 15 years later, those robot geeks are entrepreneurs and designers, and the colorful plastic bricks have an significant influence in their lives. Read more of this post

Is Coke’s 127-year-old recipe the same? Not quite

Is Coke’s 127-year-old recipe the same? Not quite

CANDICE CHOI 11 hours ago

ATLANTA (AP) — Coca-Cola keeps the recipe for its 127-year-old soda inside an imposing steel vault that’s bathed in red security lights. Several cameras monitor the area to make sure the fizzy formula stays a secret. But in one of the many signs that the surveillance is as much about theater as reality, the images that pop up on video screens are of smiling tourists waving at themselves. “It’s a little bit for show,” concedes a guard at the World of Coca-Cola museum in downtown Atlanta, where the vault is revealed at the end of an exhibit in a puff of smoke. The ability to push a quaint narrative about a product’s origins and fuel a sense of nostalgia can help drive billions of dollars in sales. That’s invaluable at a time when food makers face greater competition from smaller players and cheaper supermarket store brands that appeal to cash-strapped Americans. Read more of this post

Minzhong Drop Renews China Overseas Listing Woes: Southeast Asia

Minzhong Drop Renews China Overseas Listing Woes: Southeast Asia

China Minzhong Food Corp. (MINZ) lost half its market value in less than two hours after short-seller Glaucus Research Group questioned the vegetable processor’s accounts, reviving investor concern about Chinese companies traded overseas. Glaucus said in a report the Putian, China-based company had been “significantly deceiving” regulators and investors, sending the stock 48 percent lower in Singapore trading yesterday and wiping S$318 million ($249 million) off its market value before it was suspended. Minzhong said it’s seeking legal opinion and will comment as soon as possible. Read more of this post

CEO Investment Cycles

CEO Investment Cycles

Yihui Pan University of Utah – Department of Finance

Tracy Yue Wang University of Minnesota – Twin Cities – Carlson School of Management

Michael S. Weisbach Ohio State University (OSU) – Department of Finance; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

August 2013
NBER Working Paper No. w19330

Abstract: 
This paper documents the existence of a CEO Investment Cycle, in which firms disinvest early in a CEO’s tenure and increase investment subsequently, leading to “cyclical” firm growth in assets as well as in employment over CEO tenure. The CEO investment cycle occurs for both firings and non-performance related CEO turnovers, and for CEOs with different relationships with the firm prior to becoming CEO. The magnitude of the CEO cycle is substantial: The estimated difference in investment rate between the first three years of a CEO’s tenure and subsequent years is approximately 6 to 8 percentage points, which is of the same order of magnitude as the differences caused by other factors known to affect investment, such as business cycles or financial constraints. We present a variety of tests suggesting that this investment cycle is best explained by a combination of agency-based theories: Early in his tenure the CEO disinvests poorly performing assets that his predecessor established and was unwilling to give up on. Subsequently, the CEO overinvests when he gains more control over his board. There is no evidence that the investment cycles occur because of shifting CEO skill or productivity shocks. Overall, the results imply that public corporations’ investments deviate substantially from the first-best, and that governance-related factors internal to the firm are as important as economy-wide factors in explaining firms’ investments.

Summer Is the Real Season for Bad Colds, Not Winter; Summer viruses linger longer, and pack more of a punch, than winter ones

August 26, 2013, 7:23 p.m. ET

Summer Is the Real Season for Bad Colds, Not Winter

Summer viruses linger longer, and pack more of a punch, than winter ones

ANGELA CHEN

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Having trouble kicking that summer cold? It’s not your imagination. Summer colds are caused by different viruses than winter colds and tend to last longer than the winter variety. Angela Chen reports. Photo: AP.

Something summery may be lingering even as the season fades—the summer cold. Colds in summertime can last for weeks, at times seemingly going away and then suddenly storming back with a vengeance, infectious-disease experts say. A winter cold, by contrast, is typically gone in a few days. The reason for the difference: Summer colds are caused by different viruses from the ones that bring on sniffling and sneezing in the colder months. And some of the things people commonly do in the summer can prolong the illness, like being physically active and going in and out of air-conditioned buildings. Read more of this post

Huge debts send China’s steel industry to verge of bankruptcy

Huge debts send China’s steel industry to verge of bankruptcy

Staff Reporter

2013-08-27

Eighty six of China’s major medium-and-large steel enterprises incurred more than 3 trillion yuan (US$486.4 billion) in total liabilities as of June, or a debt ratio of 69.74%, signaling that the industry is on the verge of bankruptcy, reports Beijing’s Economic Observer, citing figures from the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA). Meanwhile, the industry’s profits for the first six months of the year totaled only 2.2 billion yuan (US$356.7 million), with 35 steel enterprises, or about 40% of the total, reporting losses. However, their assets-liabilities ratio, accounts receivable turnover ratio and accounts payable turnover ratio registered a rise. Read more of this post

Don’t Blame the Fed for Asia’s Problems

Don’t Blame the Fed for Asia’s Problems

It’s time to set our clocks back in Asia. (ADXY) Not to 1997, as many are recommending, but to 1994.

Memories of the former year remain raw. Currencies had gone into free fall and current-account deficits exploded. Central bankers and International Monetary Fund officials scurried to contain the chaos. It’s true that another 1997-like crisis is highly unlikely. Today, exchange rates are more flexible, foreign-currency debt is lower, banks are healthier, countries are sitting on trillions of dollars of reserves, and economies are far more transparent. The differences between 1997 and today trump the similarities. Read more of this post

Think You Can Drive a Bulldozer? Fearing Shortage of Skilled Operators, Machinery Makers Add Auto-Pilot Technologies

August 26, 2013, 9:12 p.m. ET

Think You Can Drive a Bulldozer?

Fearing Shortage of Skilled Operators, Machinery Makers Add Auto-Pilot Technologies

JAMES R. HAGERTY

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As experienced bulldozer drivers retire, heavy equipment manufacturers are including technology in new models to make precise earth-moving easier. This Komatsu bulldozer has a ‘machine control’ system that uses GPS to program movements around a work site.

CARTERSVILLE, Ga.—As he closed the door, leaving me alone at the controls of a 41,000-pound bulldozer with list price of nearly $432,000, a Komatsu Ltd.6301.TO -1.16% executive shouted, “No worries!” That’s when I started sweating. Typing I can do—blindfolded, if necessary. But mechanical flair has always eluded me. I recently had to ask a neighbor to help me start a lawn mower. Even so, Komatsu assured me that technological advances would allow me to learn the basics of dozing in a couple of hours. Dozers are used to smooth ground for roads and runways or shape the contours of building sites and golf courses. They are among the trickier types of heavy machinery to operate because drivers must shave huge mounds of earth to precise contours, often while perched on hillsides or mired in mud. Unlike excavators, dozers typically are in motion as they move earth. Read more of this post

Capital Flight Drains Reserves as Rupee, Rupiah Fall: Currencies

Capital Flight Drains Reserves as Rupee, Rupiah Fall: Currencies

By Candice Zachariahs and Lilian Karunungan  Aug 25, 2013

Asian nations are depleting foreign reserves as they seek to bolster their currencies while investors pull billions of dollars from the region. Of the 10 Asian central banks with the largest reserves, six have cut their holdings this year, led by a record 18 percent reduction byIndonesia, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Their reserves are rising at the slowest pace in data going back to 2000. Holdings in Asiaprobably contracted once price moves are taken into account, Citigroup Inc. estimates. Read more of this post

Everything that’s wrong with Microsoft, as told by veterans who abandoned the company; Low morale and a destructive internal culture

Everything that’s wrong with Microsoft, as told by veterans who abandoned the company

By Christopher Mims @mims August 26, 2013

It’s possible, even likely, that Microsoft is about to enter the darkest period in the firm’s history. Darker, even, than July 2000, when it seemed the US government might dissolve the house that Bill built, and force the company to be split into two different companies. The revenue Microsoft earned in the quarter ending in March 2013, $20.5 billion, probably represents a high water mark for the company, at least for the foreseeable future. In the most recent quarter, the company’s revenue missed expectations, which Microsoft blamed on ongoing weakness in the market for PCs. There is no sign that demand for PCs is going to pick up again—even Intel is projecting sales will be flat, at best—and plenty that the world’s demand for PCs, or at least the kind that run Microsoft Windows, is in terminal decline (1). Read more of this post

Microsoft’s decline from technology superpower to office utility has many causes, but none has received more focus than the management technique known inside the company as “stack ranking.”

Microsoft’s Massively Misplaced Incentives

Microsoft’s decline from technology superpower to office utility has many causes, but none has received more focus than the management technique known inside the company as “stack ranking.”

Everyone on every team is divided into three groups. A few are top performers, and are eligible for promotion and larger bonuses. Most are average. The rest are denied bonuses and often asked to leave. The performance reviews that determine these rankings occur every six months. Read more of this post

Ballmer Departure From Microsoft Was More Sudden Than Portrayed by the Company

Ballmer Departure From Microsoft Was More Sudden Than Portrayed by the Company

Published on August 25, 2013
by Kara Swisher

According to sources close to the situation, the departure of CEO Steve Ballmer from Microsoft last week was more sudden than was depicted by the company in itsannouncement that he would be retiring within the next year in a planned smooth transition. It was neither planned nor as smooth as portrayed. While the decision to go seems to have technically been Ballmer’s, interviews with dozens of people inside and outside the company, including many close to the situation, indicate that he had not aimed to leave this soon and especially after the recent restructuring of the company that he had intensely planned. Instead, sources said Ballmer’s timeline had been moved up drastically — first by him and then the nine-member board, including his longtime partner and Microsoft co-founder and chairman Bill Gates — after all agreed that it was best if he left sooner than later. Read more of this post

Why New York tech is still lagging

Why New York tech is still lagging

By Jessi Hempel, writer August 26, 2013: 5:00 AM ET

Tech is big in New York — but the alley still ain’t the valley. Here’s our annual report card.

FORTUNE — Last May when Yahoo (YHOO) CEO Marissa Mayer paid $1.1 billion in cash to buy Tumblr, New York techies cheered. Finally! A New York startup exits for more than a billion dollars! This hasn’t happened since Doubleclick sold to Google in 2007. And it is one of the signs people look for in determining whether the tech scene is robust enough to rival Silicon Valley. Read more of this post

Tesla Market Value Rises to $20 Billion on EV Optimism

Tesla Market Value Rises to $20 Billion on EV Optimism

Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA)’s market value exceeded $20 billion on investor optimism that Elon Musk can keep widening the appeal of electric-powered cars as the company’s sales increase. The stock climbed 5.7 percent to a $171.03 at 12:02 p.m. New York time after reaching an intraday record of $172.75. Shares of the Palo Alto, California-based company, which had its initial public offering just three years ago, have surged about fivefold this year.

Read more of this post

Facebook Market Value Tops $100 Billion Amid Mobile Push

Facebook Market Value Tops $100 Billion Amid Mobile Push

Facebook Inc. (FB)’s market value passed $100 billion amid optimism that the world’s largest social network can bolster sales from mobile advertising.

The stock increased 2.6 percent to $41.61 at 12:45 p.m. in New York. Earlier, it touched $41.94, the highest intraday price since Facebook’s first trading day on May 18, 2012. Before today, the shares had advanced 52 percent this year, compared with a 17 percent gain in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. Read more of this post

Behold, the biggest threat to email: Mobile chat?

Behold, the biggest threat to email: Mobile chat

BY HAMISH MCKENZIE 
ON AUGUST 26, 2013

Many tech observers have predicted the demise of email – or wished for it to come as soon as possible. That assumption is predicated on the idea that because email is almost as old as the Internet itself, it must be outmoded. Those predictions have never come to pass, even as our digital habits have shifted to mobile, which, with its smaller screens and pokier keyboards, are less email-friendly. In fact, we’re busy hungrilydevouring email on our mobile devices. Read more of this post

Taiwan’s Kinpo-Compal-CalComp unveils US$499 3D printer

Kinpo unveils US$499 3D printer

CNA

2013-08-27

A local Taiwanese electronics conglomerate Kinpo Group unveiled Monday a three-dimensional printer priced as low as US$499 to tap into what it calls a promising industry. The 3D printer dubbed the da Vinci will carry the brand name of XYZprinting, a joint venture by two Kinpo subsidiaries: Kinpo Electronics and Cal-Comp Electronics and Communications. Read more of this post

Xiaomi Pulls a Knife, Sword on Electronics Industry

08.26.2013 16:26

Closer Look: Xiaomi Pulls a Knife, Sword on Electronics Industry

Young smartphone maker is apparently preparing to unveil new gadgets, but more than that it is aiming at nothing short of supremacy in its field

By staff reporter Zhu Yishi

(Beijing) – Three-year-old smartphone maker Xiaomi Mobile Internet Co. is again in the spotlight as it draws closer to the debut of much-awaited electronic gadgets. The firm has sent out numerous letters inviting people to attend a press conference on September 5. Printed on the letters are a unique sword and knife, a clear reference to a novel that every Chinese person with the slightest interest in kung fu probably gets. He who owns the sword or the knife can rule the kingdom, or so the novel says. If anything speaks more loudly than ever of Xiaomi’s founder Lei Jun’s ambition for industry supremacy, this is it. Read more of this post

From Intern to VP: Meet Baidu’s 29-Year-Old Boss of Mobile and Cloud Division of $49 Billion Company

From Intern to VP: Meet Baidu’s 29-Year-Old Boss of Mobile

By Lulu Yilun Chen – Aug 25, 2013

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For Baidu, a company where the average age of its 21,000 employees is 26, promoting a 29-year-old to vice president may not seem like a big deal. Mark Zuckerberg, after all, is that age. But Li Mingyuan, who began at the company in 2004 as an intern, last month became the youngest vice president ever of China’s largest search engine. And he’s taking on no small task: head of the mobile and cloud division for a company worth $49 billion. Read more of this post

eJiajie: Location-based Housekeeping App

eJiajie: Location-based Housekeeping App

By Emma Lee on August 26, 2013

eJiajie is a location-based housekeeping app developed by the team of taxi app Dididache, which makes inroads to a new field after the government put curbs on the taxi app sector. With more than 3,000 registered housekeepers, eJiajie enables users to get quick access to housekeepers near their homes (source in Chinese). eJiajie charges 39 yuan ($6.32) for two hours, allegedly the lowest in Beijing city. A star-rating system was established for the service of each housekeeper. Housekeepers with higher ratings will get a higher service charge. eJiajie will buy insurance policies in case housekeepers accidentally broke something in clients’ homes. eJiajie charges housekeepers 300 yuan to 600 yuan of annual fee, promising to offer more than 200 orders a year. The company planned to include confinement care, elder care and babysitting to the business lineup. In addition, it also plans to train housekeepers. (source in Chinese).

China UnionPay considers direct interface for collecting payments and majority of third party payment providers would start losing their profits

China UnionPay considers direct interface for collecting payments

Staff Reporter

2013-08-27

Total online payments in China in 2014 are projected to touch 8 trillion yuan (US$1.3 trillion) and the billions generated in credit card transaction fees are expected to trigger an intense competition. When a purchase is made at an online shop worth 100 yuan (US$16) via credit card through Alipay on an e-commerce site like Taobao, the store has to pay 1 yuan (US$0.16) to the bank in lieu of a service fee. The distribution of that single yuan per transaction between the card issuing banks, payment processors and cleaning houses has created a battle for profits. China UnionPay wants to set up a direct interface that will allow it to collect payments itself. As a result, a majority of third party payment providers would start losing their profits, reports Shanghai’s First Financial Daily. Read more of this post

Why Chinese Have Shiny Nails After Visiting the Showroom

Why Chinese Have Shiny Nails After Visiting the Showroom

On his first visit to the Peugeot SA (UG) dealership in Wuhan, China, Xu Zhongli spent hours asking questions and fiddling with cars. Over the next month, he returned for another four marathon sessions and also made several visits to a Citroen showroom. Neither dealer showed any signs of impatience with him, Xu says. “I needed time to look at the models and consider the color,” said Xu, 41, a production supervisor, who finally settled on a 105,000 yuan ($17,000) silver Peugeot 308, his first car. “I had to negotiate the price, too.” Read more of this post

The days of China’s banks raking in easy fat profits have gone, for now, as the slowing economy and market-based financial reform squeeze profits and extend bad loans

Market reform eats into bank profits

2013-08-26

BEIJING, Aug. 26 (Xinhua) — The days of China’s banks raking in easy fat profits have gone, for now, as the slowing economy and market-based financial reform squeeze profits and extend bad loans, semi-annual reports have shown. By Monday, seven commercial lenders had published their semi-annual reports, and all of them report slower profits and higher non-performing loan ratios, although the facts are better than expected. Read more of this post

Kangbashi/Inner Mongolia home market on brink of collapse as home prices in the area have tumbled from 20,000 yuan (US$3,200) to 3,000 yuan (US$500) a square meter

Kangbashi home market on brink of collapse

Staff Reporter

2013-08-27

The housing market in Kangbashi New Area, a district in Ordos in Inner Mongolia, is on the brink of collapse as home prices in the area have tumbled from 20,000 yuan (US$3,200) to 3,000 yuan (US$500) a square meter, the state-run China Youth Daily reports. China’s real estate bubble seems to have spread to medium and small cities mainly due to excess supply as a result of massive outflows of local residents and low income levels in less developed cities, say analysts who are bearish on the property market. Read more of this post

China’s Lofty Goals for Shale Gas Development Just Pipe Dreams, Experts Say

08.26.2013 19:02

China’s Lofty Goals for Shale Gas Development Just Pipe Dreams, Experts Say

Lack of innovation, technology and capital likely mean that the ambitious targets set for the next few years are not attainable

By staff reporter Pu Jun and intern reporter Huang Kaiqian

(Beijing) – China wants to reap the benefits of a shale gas revolution similar to the one in the United States, but there are many obstacles to this happening, experts say. In the first half of 2013, 56 shale gas wells were in the exploratory phase in the country, but only 24 were producing gas. Only six wells – all dug by either China Petrochemical Corp. (Sinopec Group) or China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) – had daily output capacity of 10,000 cubic meters or more. And all the shale gas blocks sold in the most recent round of auctioning were in the early phases of prospecting, meaning they had not produced a drop. Read more of this post

China’s Economic Rebalancing Act Faces Uphill Political Battle; Chinese Leaders’ Reform Proposals Cut Against Interests of Local Governments

August 26, 2013, 2:30 p.m. ET

China’s Economic Rebalancing Act Faces Uphill Political Battle

Chinese Leaders’ Reform Proposals Cut Against Interests of Local Governments

BEIJING—A mid-July move by China to increase the power of the market in the banking sector was a significant step in a plan to overhaul the country’s economic model. It may also have been the last easy win for China’s new leaders, whose reform program will likely run into stiff opposition from within the ruling Communist Party. President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang have advocated a more limited role for the state, and with economists convinced that Beijing’s investment-heavy growth model has run its course, the government has signaled its aim to rebalance the economy toward domestic demand. Read more of this post

China’s aluminum producers staggering as factories lack orders

Aluminum producers staggering as factories lackorders

Updated: 2013-08-27 06:50

By Du Juan ( China Daily)

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Billabong Posts A$860 Million Loss as Brand Deemed Worthless

Billabong Posts A$860 Million Loss as Brand Deemed Worthless

Billabong International Ltd. (BBG), the Australian surfwear company whose shares fell by more than half over the past year, posted a loss more than three times its market value and said its core brand was worthless. The loss was A$860 million ($776 million) in the year ended June, compared with a loss of A$276 million in the previous 12 months, the Gold Coast, Australia-based company said in a statement today. Billabong was expected to lose A$547 million, according to the average of four analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Read more of this post

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