Europe’s Auto Makers Poised to Lose $6.6 Billion in 2013 With Demand at 20-Year Low

September 4, 2013, 4:23 a.m. ET

Europe’s Auto Makers Poised to Lose $6.6 Billion in 2013 — Moody’s

Demand at 20-Year Low

GILLES CASTONGUAY

MILAN—Moody’s Investors Service Inc. expects four of Europe’s volume car manufacturers including Fiat SpA F.MI +9.06% and PSA Peugeot-Citroën SAUG.FR +0.42% to lose a combined €5 billion ($6.6 billion) in the region this year as demand falls to its lowest level in two decades. It would be the second year in a row that these manufacturers—Ford Motor Co.F +3.24% and General Motors Co.GM +2.69% being the other two—suffer such a loss at the operational level.With demand in western Europe expected to fall for a sixth year in a row—down 5% to 12.48 million units—the makers of mass-market vehicles not only have to struggle with the cost of having too much spare capacity but also a bruising price war over the few buyers who bother to frequent showrooms.

In a report on the outlook for the global industry published Wednesday, the debt ratings firm said Fiat and a fifth manufacturer, France’s Renault SA,RNO.FR -0.23% would no longer be able to rely as much on emerging markets Brazil and Russia to help offset their losses because demand in those markets was also losing momentum.

Although the report sees sales beginning to rise again in Europe in 2014—up 3% to 12.845 million units—it didn’t place too much emphasis on the rebound because of the prolonged economic crisis, especially in countries such as Italy and Spain.

“We do not see any indication of a sustainable, upward trend in demand from 2014 onwards,” analyst Falk Frey told reporters on a conference call about the report.

Mr. Frey cited Fiat and Peugeot-Citroën as most at risk of seeing their ratings come under pressure should the situation in Europe fail to improve in the coming years. “The question will be what happens to those companies and how long can they contain their cash burn with their available liquidity,” he said.

Moody’s assigns Fiat a Ba3 rating and Peugeot-Citroën a B1 rating.

Germany’s Volkswagen AG VOW3.XE -1.02% and other premium manufacturers would also feel the strain in Europe, but their exposure to other markets—especially China—would allow them to withstand them better than their peers, the ratings firm said.

China’s strong growth in the first half of the year had led Moody’s to raise its forecast for global sales growth to 3.2% for 2013 and 4.8% for 2014 at 87.510 million units.

“Chinese demand for cars remains the key driver of the global increase in car sales,” the ratings firm said, adding that it had a stable outlook for the global industry for the next 12 to 18 months.

For China itself, Moody’s saw unit sales reaching 21.02 million in 2013, up 10%.

The U.S. was also proving to be robust, with sales seen rising 8.7% to 15.75 million units this year, it said.