Mapping The 7 “Risk” Horsemen Of The Sept-ocalypse

September 5, 2013 Leave a comment

Mapping The 7 “Risk” Horsemen Of The Sept-ocalypse

Tyler Durden on 09/04/2013 21:50 -0400

Ahead of September, historically the worst month for stocks, Deutsche Bank notes that volatility has picked up and corporate bond issuance has slowed. There are several possible risks over the next few weeks that could trigger a further escalation in market volatility…

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Via Deutsche Bank,

1. Emerging markets could become more vulnerable as the Fed tapers QE and capital outflows from EM intensify

20130903_DB7_2_02. Central banks forward guidance may fail to keep rates low for an extended period

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3. US consumers could come under pressure from higher energy costs and rising mortgage rates

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4. Political deadlock amid US budget talks and the mid-October debt ceiling could rattle markets

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5. The next Fed chair will soon be nominated and the main candidates differ in style and policy. The markets may take note

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6. While Chancellor Merkel is on track for re-election on September 22, the governing coalition may change

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7. The crisis in the Middle East may escalate, impacting oil prices, inflation and growth

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But Deutsche’s Base Case is that none of these risks pose a systemic threat…

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and yields will ‘normalize’ higher gradually…

Filed under Macro Trends

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Kee Koon Boon (“KB”) is the co-founder and director of HERO Investment Management which provides specialized fund management and investment advisory services to the ARCHEA Asia HERO Innovators Fund (www.heroinnovator.com), the only Asian SMID-cap tech-focused fund in the industry. KB is an internationally featured investor rooted in the principles of value investing for over a decade as a fund manager and analyst in the Asian capital markets who started his career at a boutique hedge fund in Singapore where he was with the firm since 2002 and was also part of the core investment committee in significantly outperforming the index in the 10-year-plus-old flagship Asian fund. He was also the portfolio manager for Asia-Pacific equities at Korea’s largest mutual fund company. Prior to setting up the H.E.R.O. Innovators Fund, KB was the Chief Investment Officer & CEO of a Singapore Registered Fund Management Company (RFMC) where he is responsible for listed Asian equity investments. KB had taught accounting at the Singapore Management University (SMU) as a faculty member and also pioneered the 15-week course on Accounting Fraud in Asia as an official module at SMU. KB remains grateful and honored to be invited by Singapore’s financial regulator Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to present to their top management team about implementing a world’s first fact-based forward-looking fraud detection framework to bring about benefits for the capital markets in Singapore and for the public and investment community. KB also served the community in sharing his insights in writing articles about value investing and corporate governance in the media that include Business Times, Straits Times, Jakarta Post, Manual of Ideas, Investopedia, TedXWallStreet. He had also presented in top investment, banking and finance conferences in America, Italy, Sydney, Cape Town, HK, China. He has trained CEOs, entrepreneurs, CFOs, management executives in business strategy & business model innovation in Singapore, HK and China.

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