Despite Joko Widodo’s Popularity, Megawati Will Likely Run Herself

Despite Joko Widodo’s Popularity, Megawati Will Likely Run Herself

By Aleksius Jemadu on 9:57 am September 12, 2013.
While other political parties have declared names for their presidential candidates, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle chooses to wait and see. During its National Meeting last week in Jakarta, chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri, asked members of her party to be patient and wait until the result of the 2014 legislative elections is known. She probably wanted to emphasize the importance of winning the legislative elections first, before formulating accurate strategies to go after the top executive job.But the question is: for whose nomination will those strategies be carried out? For herself? Megawati has never been popularly elected but aspires to. Or for Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo, better known as Jokowi, whose electability now is far higher than other presidential candidates? The biggest problem in reading Megawati’s mind is that her silence tells us a lot more about her political inclinations than her words. For instance, until now she has never publicly forgiven Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono who, as a minister in her cabinet, back in 2003 ignored her suggestion not to run for the presidency. As it turned out, Yudhoyono’s landslide victory in the 2004 presidential elections created political bitterness among Megawati and others within the PDI-P.

When her late husband, Taufik Kiemas, was still around, he would persuade Megawati to let bygones be bygones and give more opportunities to the younger generation within the party. Now that he is no longer there, it must be easier for Megawati to accomplish her ambition if she chooses to do so. It is true that during the National Meeting she praised Jokowi as one of the party’s prospective leaders several times, but that does not necessarily mean that she has given the green light for his presidential nomination. Thus, it is not yet clear whether her praise for Jokowi should be seen as a clue to his eventual presidential nomination or as part of an attempt to tacitly capitalize on Jokowi’s popularity for her own bid next year.

But there are at least four reasons why the latter scenario is more realistic.

First, time and again, when asked about his readiness to be nominated, Jokowi has made it clear that he first wants to focus on the many problems of the nation’s capital. On top of that, he seems to realize that at the end of the day, regardless of his rising popularity, Megawati’s support will be a conditio sine qua non for a presidential bid. Finishing well his five-year term as governor of Jakarta will ultimately strengthen Jokowi’s political identity as a distinctive statesman — a valuable commodity considering the scarcity of that type of leadership throughout the nation.

Second, as chairwoman of the opposition party, Megawati continues to monitor closely the problematic position of the PDI-P’s major contenders: the Golkar Party and the Democratic Party. Poor performance of Aburizal Bakrie in various opinion pools and an internal rift regarding his presidential nomination will ultimately weaken Golkar’s effectiveness in mobilizing popular support in the 2014 elections if not quickly addressed.

A series of corruption scandals involving some Democratic Party leaders has damaged the party’s reputation to such a degree that it is very unlikely that it will be able to maintain its electoral preponderance in the next elections. On top of that, the current declining popularity of Islamic political parties will automatically benefit nationalist parties like the PDI-P.

Third, the electoral victories by some governors nominated by the PDI-P in provinces like Jakarta, Central Java, East Nusa Tenggara and Central Kalimantan must have strengthened Megawati’s confidence in her own political capabilities beyond 2014.

Last but not least, the common characteristic of political parties in the post-Suharto era is that they are established mainly as a political vehicle for the chairpersons to realize their own political ambitions. There is no reason why we should assume that Megawati would be an exception to this rule.

Aleksius Jemadu is dean of the School of Government and Global Affairs at Universitas Pelita Harapan, Karawaci.