February 7, 2014
The Economist
A New World for Bonds: Time to sweep away an artificial distinction in the world of corporate debt issues.
Imagine that the stock market was divided into two. The big investment banks — Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Merrill Lynch — would create lists of the shares that they liked. These approved shares would be classed as IB, for investment-bank-approved, and would trade on a higher valuation (i.e., lower yield) than equities they did not like, which would be lumped together in the BS, or bank-shunned, category. Some investors would be prevented from owning anything but the IB shares.
The idea sounds bizarre, but such an artificial distinction does exist in the bond markets, where the big ratings agencies class debt issues on a scale from AAA, the highest class, to D, for bonds in default. Bonds rated BBB- or higher are classified as investment grade (IG) whereas those rated BB+ or below are regarded as speculative, or more popularly, junk bonds. Some investors will not touch junk bonds at all; most bond funds focus on either IG bonds or junk.
But as Kevin Corrigan of Lombard Odier Investment Managers points out, this Manichean divide is rather odd. The difference between the BBB and BB categories is not that fundamental. Figures from Standard & Poor’s, one of the big ratings agencies, show that, of American corporate bonds rated BBB, 1.1 percent are in default three years later; for those rated BB, the figure is 4.8 percent. By contrast, 14.7 percent of bonds rated B have stopped paying within three years and 41.7 percent of those rated C or below. The figures for European bonds are similar (see chart).
A degentrification has been taking place in the bond market. The aristocrats of bonds — issuers of AAA-rated debt — have virtually disappeared. There is no longer much of an advantage in being rated AAA: shareholders instead want companies either to return the spare cash that might help earn them a high rating or to make their balance-sheets more “efficient” by borrowing more to take advantage of the tax deductibility of interest payments, thus jeopardizing an exalted status. Read more of this post