The Value Investor’s Schizophrenia: Buy-and-Hold Sounds Good, but the Value Discipline Requires One Also To Sell
Superstar investor Warren Buffett is widely quoted as having said, “The best time to sell a stock is…never.”
But Buffett, while a proclaimed disciple of Benjamin Graham, the “pope” of value investing, was later just as much influenced by Philip Fisher, the recognized “pope” of growth investing. In fact, it was Fisher who, in Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits (Harper, 1958), wrote that the best time to sell a stock was “almost never.”
I never met Ben Graham, and have not met Warren Buffet. But I did meet Phil Fisher, who invited me to visit a company with him after reading one of my papers, sometime in the 1980s. Without even a quote machine in his office, he was a voracious reader of company financials, but also a compulsive evaluator of corporate management. He wanted to know and talk to everyone he could in a company, from CEO to operations personnel; and once convinced that a management was among the best, he was willing to pay almost any price for the shares. If he overpaid, his logic went, the company’s earnings growth would make up for it over the ensuing years.
It is not clear that Warren Buffet puts the same premium on superior management. In a May 20, 2008, statement to the Associated Press, he even advised, “Buy into a business that’s doing so well an idiot could run it, because sooner or later, one will.”
This, by the way, was probably inspired by a similar comment from legendary growth investor Peter Lynch in his 1989 book, One Up on Wall Street (Simon & Schuster, 2000), so the feeling does not belong only to value investors.
Clearly, Buffet has retained a great sense of value. But nowadays his philosophy – probably imposed in part by the trading and liquidity restrictions of a very large portfolio – seems closer to that of Philip Fisher, as exemplified by this quote from his 1989 Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders: “It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”
Personally, I am still more at ease with the value discipline of investment: I feel more comfortable estimating a company’s reasonable worth than putting a dollar value on the quality and future achievements of its management. In addition, the contrarian bias of value investing also pleases me, since it means seizing occasions when the price the investing crowd is willing to pay for a stock is well below its value. Read more of this post
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