A Lesson From Buffett: Doubt Yourself
May 6, 2013 Leave a comment
May 5, 2013
A Lesson From Buffett: Doubt Yourself
There was no big news at Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s annual meeting this past weekend, but there was one great lesson for investors: Perhaps the most important thing you can do when everything seems to be going right in your portfolio is to listen to somebody who insists you are wrong. To spice up the annual ritual, Berkshire’s chairman, Warren Buffett, invited someone who has placed a bet against the stock—short-seller Doug Kass of hedge fund Seabreeze Partners Management—to join the panel of analysts posing questions to Mr. Buffett and vice chairman Charles Munger. Carp, if you will, that it didn’t take much bravery for Mr. Buffett to give air time to one skeptic among the more than 35,000 worshippers who would trample their grandmothers to kiss Mr. Buffett’s feet if he took his socks off. Complain, as many already have, that Mr. Kass’s questions weren’t all that tough. Then ask yourself: When is the last time the management of a major U.S. company sought out unrestricted criticism from someone betting against the stock? To get a sense of how unusual it was for Mr. Buffett to invite a bear to ask questions freely, consider a survey of more than 500 companies by the National Investor Relations Institute in 2011. The research found that 80% placed limits on who can ask questions during the quarterly ritual of the earnings conference call. Nearly 25% of the companies took questions only from “pre-approved lists” of callers. Only 11% permitted individual investors to ask questions; just 12% said the floor is open to everyone. What is more, 76% of companies prepared scripted answers to the questions they expected to get. According to the NIRI survey, the prepared comments by top executives that open the typical earnings conference call are prerecorded by about one out of 12 companies, but more than 80% of them don’t disclose that the remarks have been prerecorded. But before you start comparing U.S. corporate management to a closed system like, say, North Korea, ask yourself another question: When is the last time I tried as hard as possible to find someone to refute my own investing ideas? Mr. Buffett is “self-confident, but he’s not afraid of a challenge,” Mr. Kass told me last week. “I believe he enjoys challenges.” A deliberate, lifelong effort to find people to tell him why he might be wrong is one of the keys to Mr. Buffett’s success. It doesn’t come naturally to most investors. Mr. Buffett once noted about the scientist Charles Darwin that “whenever he ran into something that contradicted a conclusion he cherished, he was obliged to write the new finding down within 30 minutes. Otherwise his mind would work to reject the discordant information, much as the body rejects transplants. Man’s natural inclination is to cling to his beliefs, particularly if they are reinforced by recent experience.” Read more of this post