In Brazil, Dilma Rousseff’s woes prompt talk of Lula comeback

July 21, 2013 12:59 pm

In Brazil, Dilma Rousseff’s woes prompt talk of Lula comeback

By Joe Leahy in São Paulo

The interaction was classic Lula, as Brazil’s former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is known.

Discussing mass protests that swept Brazil last month with university students in his working-class neighbourhood of São Paulo, Mr Lula da Silva was all rough charm, casually peppering his discourse with expletives uncommon for a politician, in public at least.“When you are pissed off with life, no, really pissed off: ‘I don’t like Lula, I don’t like Dilma’ . . . even at these times, don’t just give up on politics,” he told the group, referring to President Dilma Rousseff.

The charisma of the former president, who did not graduate from primary school yet easily mixes with all levels of Brazilian and international society, from favelas to the White House, stands in contrast to Ms Rousseff, his protégé from their centre-left ruling Workers Party (PT).

A taciturn technocrat criticised for interventionist economic policies, she seems more at home attending to the minutiae of infrastructure projects than taking to the rostrum to play politics. This combined with the immense popularity of Mr Lula da Silva is fuelling speculation that the former metalworker who led Brazil between 2003 and 2010 could make a comeback in presidential elections next year.

Mr Lula da Silva “would be up to 37 per cent stronger than President Dilma Rousseff as the PT’s candidate for the presidency if an election were held today”, newspaper Estado de S.Paulo reported on Friday, citing an opinion poll it conducted with agency Ibope.

It showed Mr Lula da Silva would have garnered 41 per cent of votes compared to 30 per cent for Ms Rousseff in an impromptu election. The poll was only the latest to confirm a sharp fall in popularity for the president, who in March was preferred by 58 per cent of voters as the PT’s candidate next year.

Against her, Brazil’s opposition leaders are also gaining ground, with green candidate Marina Silva polling 22 per cent, up from 12 per cent in March, while the head of the centre-right PSDB party, Aécio Neves, moved from 9 per cent to 13 per cent.

At first Ms Rousseff’s dry, low-key style was welcomed after the noisy Lula years. But with the country reeling from the nationwide street protests in favour of better public services last month, Brazilians are wondering if Ms Rousseff has the political savvy to lead them through what are increasingly uncharted waters for the young democracy.

Even before the demonstrations, she was losing credibility on her supposed main area of competence, the economy. In 2011, after growing 7.5 per cent the previous year, the economy suffered a hangover as inflation and the eurozone crisis squeezed growth.

“Whether Lula is better than Dilma or someone else, I don’t know but I do know that the prices of things have risen a lot since she came in,” said José Paulino, a street vendor. “At least under Lula it seemed better.” He said a sack of the green coconuts he sells now cost R$70 compared with R$30 a few weeks ago.

Ms Rousseff’s administration launched measures aimed at increasing investment and boosting consumption. It did not work. The economy grew less than 1 per cent last year.

Rather than more consumer goods, Brazilians were looking for better public services and cleaner government. Their frustration exploded on to the streets last month during the Confederations Cup, the warm-up event for the World Cup.

“In 10 years’ time, the history books will probably show 2010 was the end of the era of abundance that reflected on that supercycle of presidential popularity in Brazil, and of economic growth,” said João Augusto de Castro Neves.

“The Rousseff years of 2011-14 will be seen as a transition period from one to the other where you have the same cast of characters still thinking they are in that previous moment but slowly realising that times have changed.”

The question is whether Mr Lula da Silva should return to guide that transformation. Most likely he will avoid risking a comeback at such a difficult moment, when not just Brazil but the global economy is undergoing an unpredictable transition, says Rafael Alcadipani, professor at Fundação Getulio Vargas, an academic institution.

“If he [Lula] is clever enough, he will try to preserve his legacy,” he said.

What is more, in spite of her fall in popularity, Ms Rousseff still seems the strongest candidate to win next year’s election. While the proportion of those who believed she was doing a good or excellent job fell sharply after the protests, most people still believe she is doing an OK job.

As for Mr Lula da Silva, he has so far been supportive of her, dismissing any idea of coming back. He has also kept his appearances low key, such as this week’s speech to the students.

He urged them to go out and protest if they are angry but not to abandon the system. “Rather than reject politics, enter politics,” he said, as reported in newspaper Folha de S.Paulo.