TUESDAY, JULY 23, 2013
Investing When Opportunities Are Limited
By BEN INKER | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
Ben Inker, an associate of famed investor Jeremy Grantham, argues that both stocks and bonds are overvalued. So what’s an investor to do?
Editor’s Note: Jeremy Grantham has decided to take a break from his scheduled summer quarterly missive to investors. But we’re happy to share the latest commentary of Ben Inker, who works alongside Grantham at GMO, the Boston-based money management firm. A longer version of this commentary, along with charts, is available on the GMO Website.
To investors focused on U.S. equities, it may be easy to forget the investing excitement of this spring, but for others, particularly anyone running a portfolio predicated on asset class correlations being low, this has been a pretty shocking couple of months. From May 22 to June 24, the S&P 500 lost 5.6%, MSCI EAFE lost 10.1%, MSCI Emerging Markets fell 15.3%, the Dow Jones/UBS Commodity index fell 4.5%, the U.S. 10-year T-Note fell 4.4%, and the Barclays U.S. TIPS index fell 7.1%. For good measure, the J.P. Morgan Emerging Debt Global index fell 10.8%, the German 10-year Bund fell 5.2%, the UK 10-year Gilt fell 3.4%, and the Australian 10-year bond fell 6.5%. Equity markets have made a fairly sharp recovery since then, with the S&P 500 actually hitting new highs, but lots of other asset classes are still licking their wounds. In light of the generally negative correlations between stocks and bonds of the last decade, the universality of the declines looks pretty weird. For those schooled in thinking that the only “risks” that matter for investors are growth shocks and inflation shocks, it’s significantly more than just weird. To anyone of that mind, it’s a bit of a soul-searching moment, and it forces you to either treat the episode as a one-off event that will hopefully not happen again anytime soon or as a challenge that requires you to rethink your risk model. Not surprisingly, at GMO we believe it to be the latter, and that most investor risk models are missing an important piece of the puzzle. Read more of this post
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