Return of the living dead, hedge fund edition

Return of the living dead, hedge fund edition

Dan McCrum

| Oct 03 10:51 | 10 comments | Share

We interrupt this blog to announce a zombie apocalypse has occurred. Please remain calm and do not adjust your allocations, many hedge funds remain open and fee structures are intact.

There are a lot of smart hedge fund managers out there, as well as a lot that are mediocre, lucky, or winging it. But it turns out they are outnumbered by the ranks of the discontinued, the dead, and the disappeared by almost two to one. Those numbers come to us via the Imperial College Centre for Hedge Funds Research, specifically a paper from last year revisiting “stylised facts” about hedge funds. It came to our attention after we wrote about a difficult comparison with the US stock market that many hedge funds will face in the new year. The UK’s Alternative Investment Management Association responded to our post citing the industry’s 20 year track record: Figures from Imperial College’s Centre for Hedge Research show the industry has generated over 4 per cent per annum of “alpha” or performance above the market, after fees. Very impressive, if you think there is such a thing as a 20 year track record for hedge funds that is relevant to the $2trn industry as it stands today. We do not, for a variety of reasons starting with the zombie hordes above. The academics at Imperial College put together data from the five major hedge fund databases, in order to avoid biases in individual data sets and to account for the fact that 70 per cent of hedge funds only report to one data provider. We document that the number of hedge funds ranges across data vendors from 6,772 for Morningstar to 9,719 for BarclayHedge. EurekaHedge is the largest data vendor in terms of 4,452 active hedge funds. Importantly, the proportion of alive and defunct funds varies significantly across databases. BarclayHedge, HFR and TASS (EurekaHedge and Morningstar) contain relatively more (fewer) defunct funds than alive funds. Read more of this post

Betting on a U.S.-Debt Doomsday: Budget Showdown Has Traders Crowding Into Derivatives That Pay Off if the Federal Government Defaults

October 4, 2013, 7:10 p.m. ET

Betting on a U.S.-Debt Doomsday

Budget Showdown Has Traders Crowding Into Derivatives That Pay Off if the Federal Government Defaults

KATY BURNE

Washington’s budget showdown has sent traders and analysts crowding into a cobwebbed corner of the financial world, the market for derivatives that pay off if the federal government defaults on its debt. The cost of insuring against a U.S. default via credit-default swaps has risen sharply over the past two weeks. Volume has ticked up as well, though trading remains sparse and the number of bets against the U.S. pales in comparison to other large nations and companies. Read more of this post

Debt Armageddon puts game theory to test

October 4, 2013 5:09 pm

Debt Armageddon puts game theory to test

By Ralph Atkins in London

During the Cold War, when the world feared nuclear annihiliation, scientists developed “game theories” to predict possible scenarios – and the chances of reason prevailing. This week investment strategists have applied similar thinking to the US fiscal crisis: the political deadlock in Washington over the federal budget and the debt ceiling that, at least in theory, could plunge the world into the Armageddon of a US debt default. Read more of this post

CHART OF THE DAY: 87 Years Of Crisis And Stock Market Volatility

CHART OF THE DAY: 87 Years Of Crisis And Stock Market Volatility

SAM RO OCT. 4, 2013, 3:43 PM 1,972 1

With the government shut down and the debt ceiling looming, one could argue that the U.S. economy may be on the edge of a crisis. But the stock market is not reflecting this. During periods of crisis and high stock market volatility, correlations among stocks increase.  In other words, stocks move up and down together. JP Morgan Funds’ David Kelly just published his quarterly market chartbook, which includes a useful chart tracking stock market volatility and correlations among stocks since the Great Depression.

S’pore becomes a destination for junk bonds

S’pore becomes a destination for junk bonds

SINGAPORE — Companies in South-east Asia are looking at Singapore as a viable alternative for high-yield bond issues in amounts that would be too small for US dollar investors, according to IFR, a Thomson Reuters publication.

3 HOURS 46 MIN AGO

SINGAPORE — Companies in South-east Asia are looking at Singapore as a viable alternative for high-yield bond issues in amounts that would be too small for US dollar investors, according to IFR, a Thomson Reuters publication. The push comes as so-called junk bonds became a predominant theme this year in the Singapore market, with a record number of small-cap and sub-investment grade companies selling debt in the city, attracting investor interest by offering juicy coupons. Read more of this post

Is corporate Singapore being too naive on fraud?

Is corporate Singapore being too naive on fraud?

CNBC.com | Wednesday, 2 Oct 2013 | 5:23 AM ET

Singaporean corporations are more naive in their approach to anti-fraud and corruption practices in comparison to the Asia-Pacific average, a survey from global accountancy firm Ernst & Young has found. According to the “Building a more ethical business environment survey,” only 17 percent of Singaporean respondents acknowledged that planned investments in new markets will expose the company to new risks, compared to an average of around 35 percent for the Asia-Pacific region. Read more of this post

Too much retail space in Malaysia’s Klang Valley? Klang Valley, which includes Selangor and Putrajaya, has a total of 59 million sq ft of mall space; Singapore has 56 million sq ft of retail space, of which 25 million sq ft (or 44%) are shopping floor space in the city state of 5.3 million people

Updated: Saturday October 5, 2013 MYT 7:40:05 AM

Too much retail space?

BY THEAN LEE CHENG

Klang Valley has 59 million sq ft but some small towns have only a single mall.

THERE are a few issues facing shopping mall space in the Klang Valley today. The first is the amount of space, the second is retail spending which has a direct effect on rental and yield. The Klang Valley, which includes Selangor and Putrajaya, has a total of 59 million sq ft of mall space, according to statistics from the National Property Information Centre (Napic). That is equivalent to 51 Suria KLCC malls, which has 1.14 million sq ft of net lettable area. Napic includes arcades and older buildings in the outskirts as shopping mall space. If one were to consider non-government statistics, property consultancy CBRE says Greater Kuala Lumpur has a total retail space of 48 million sq ft, equivalent to 41 Suria KLCCs malls. This excludes arcades and retail space in older buildings in the Klang Valley outskirts. Greater KL has a population of 7.2 million, according to Economists Intelligence Unit. Neighbouring Singapore in December 2012 has 56 million sq ft of retail space, of which 25 million sq ft (or 44%) are shopping floor space in the city state of 5.3 million people, according to CapitaMall Trust website. A local property consultant considers 25 million sq ft as rather low as Singapore thrives on shopping and tourism. Read more of this post

Electronic Road Pricing to Hit Jakarta Streets in 2014; Call for Moratorium on New Roads, Car Sales as Traffic Worsens

Electronic Road Pricing to Hit Jakarta Streets in 2014

By Lenny Tristia Tambun on 10:50 am October 4, 2013.

Traffic around the Block A and B Tanah Abang market in Central Jakarta. (JG Photo/Yudhi Sukma Wijaya)

The Jakarta transportation agency plans to implement an electronic road pricing scheme that will automatically charge toll fees on cars using roads in the city during certain hours. The scheme, announced on Monday, will require drivers to place transponder in their car that automatically deducts money from a prepaid card. The system is expected to ease traffic congestion by making it prohibitively expensive for people to drive in downtown Jakarta. Police said last week they expect the transponders to be able to track any car moving through Jakarta at any time or speed. The electronic road pricing scheme replaces earlier plans to apply odd-and-even plate number restrictions. Read more of this post

With plenty of money and time, family offices eye risky markets

With plenty of money and time, family offices eye risky markets

12:59pm BST

By Carolyn Cohn

LONDON (Reuters) – With deep pockets and long time horizons, and perhaps even a desire to do good, some of the world’s wealthiest families are investing in risky African and other frontier markets. Family offices, which manage assets on behalf of wealthy families in more developed markets, are generally tight-lipped and seen as conservative in their approach to investing. Read more of this post

Tarkett is the world’s third-largest maker of flooring products for residential and commercial markets after Mohawk and Berkshire’s Shaw Industries

Tarkett Files for IPO as KKR Exits French Floor Maker

Tarkett SA took the first regulatory step toward selling shares in an initial public offering as 50 percent-owner KKR & Co. (KKR) seeks to exit the French floor maker amid rising valuations of building product companies. Tarkett, which is also owned by the Deconinck family, registered the IPO documents with France’s AMF market regulator yesterday to sell shares on the NYSE Euronext (NYX) exchange in Paris, the company said in a statement today. Based on valuations of competitors, an IPO may value Tarkett at between $2.5 billion and $3.8 billion, a person familiar with the plan said earlier this year. Read more of this post

Buffett Says Debt-Ceiling Politics Should Be Banned Like A-Bomb

Buffett Says Debt-Ceiling Politics Should Be Banned Like A-Bomb

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said politicians should stop using the nation’s borrowing authority as a bargaining chip in policy debates, comparing the practice with the threat of dropping a nuclear bomb. “It ought to be banned as a weapon,” Buffett, 83, said in an interview with Fortune magazine posted online today. “It should be like nuclear bombs, basically too horrible to use.” Read more of this post

Hershey Plans $250 Million Plant in Malaysia; The plant in the southern state of Johor marks the single-largest investment in Asia since Hershey set foot in Asia 18 years ago

October 4, 2013, 1:19 p.m. ET

Hershey Plans $250 Million Plant in Malaysia

JASON NG

At the announcement of Hershey manufacturing plant in Johor, from left: Hershey senior vice-president and chief supply chain officer Terence O’Day, MIDA chief executive officer Datuk Noharuddin Nordin, Hershey senior vice-president Asia, Europe, Middle East & Africa Peter F. Smit and M.E.I Project Engineers Sdn Bhd managing director Datuk Lim Kok Khong.

KUALA LUMPUR—American candy maker Hershey Co. said Friday it will build a $250 million confectionary plant in Malaysia, boosting its presence in Asia to meet growing demand for its products. The plant in the southern state of Johor marks the single-largest investment in Asia since the Hershey, Pa.-based company set foot in the region 18 years ago. Like other global food firms, Hershey is seeking to tap into surging demand for discretionary food items in developing nations in Asia. Hershey expects the plant to be ready in early 2015. The company currently has nine plants in the U.S. as well as facilities in Canada, Mexico, India, Brazil and China. “Our new Malaysia plant will complement production at our existing joint-venture plant in China,” Terence O’Day, Hershey’s senior vice president and chief supply chain officer, said in a statement. Production capacity details weren’t mentioned but the statement said the plant will produce four of Hershey’s five global brands, including “millions of Hershey’s Kisses” each day. Hershey is expanding in Asia as part of an ambitious global goal to achieve $10 billion in annual revenue by 2017. International sales is expected to reach about $1 billion by end of 2014, the company said. Read more of this post

Cough Drops Get Sleep Aids With Smith Brothers Overhaul

Cough Drops Get Sleep Aids With Smith Brothers Overhaul

Can’t sleep? Dehydrated? There’s a cough drop for that.

Smith Brothers Co., known for 1800s-era black-and-white bags featuring its bearded founders, is reinventing the medicated lozenge. Bought out of bankruptcy in 2010 by York Capital Management LP, the 166-year-old company is trying to inject fresh thinking into a $7.23 billion U.S. cold-remedy market dominated by Halls and Procter & Gamble Co. (PG)’s Vicks. The new products include Night Time drops with melatonin and chamomile to aid sleep as well as electrolyte-laced Restore lozenges to help people recover from the flu or a marathon. Read more of this post

Investment consultants now control roughly $830 billion of the $2.5 trillion invested in hedge funds

Consultants control $830 billion of hedge fund AuM, according to Barclays study

28 Aug, 2013

Investment consultants now control roughly $830 billion of the $2.5 trillion invested in hedge funds, according to a study by Barclays Prime Finance. The Barclays study said the average investment consultants’ Assets under Administration (AuA) had grown by 30% since 2010. Albourne Partners, with $288 billion in AuA, was the largest consultant by a significant margin. Read more of this post

Mexican Sun Lures Cash to Solar as Panel Prices Plunge

Mexican Sun Lures Cash to Solar as Panel Prices Plunge

Mexico, poised to allow foreign oil extraction for the first time in 75 years, is finding its abundant natural resources also appeal to investors in a much cleaner energy: sunshine. First Solar Inc. (FSLR) of the U.S. has bought its first projects in Mexico, while more than a dozen other developers including Germany’s Saferay GmbH and Spain’s Grupotec Tecnologia Solar SL own licenses there. Local investor Gauss Energia opened Latin America’s largest photovoltaic plant in the country last month. Read more of this post

Real’s Turnaround Seen Fleeting as Brazil Bewilders; The real has tumbled 25 percent since Rousseff took office in January 2011

Real’s Turnaround Seen Fleeting as Brazil Bewilders: Currencies

For the world’s biggest foreign-exchange trader, the Brazilian real’s 11 percent rally from a 4 1/2-year low is just another reason to sell one of the “bad apples” of emerging-market currencies. Deutsche Bank AG says a possible credit-rating downgrade and Brazil’s biggest current-account deficit in 11 years will cause the real to reverse recent gains. Speculators agree, with bearish bets on the currency doubling in a month on Latin America’s main stock exchange to a record $20 billion this week. Read more of this post