October 21, 2013, 3:40 PM
Q&A: Nate Silver on China and the New FiveThirtyEight
Nate Silver, founder of the FiveThirtyEight blog, is tired of politics.
Mr. Silver is renowned for his work on big data that led him to accurately predict the winner of the U.S. presidential election – twice. In the last U.S. election, he correctly declared the outcome in all 50 states, well before voters had headed to the polls. The writer and statistician has taken on a varied list of projects—he started in 2003 with a baseball analysis system and also achieved moderate success applying statistics modeling to World Series poker. In April, Mr. Silver announced the end of his blog’s relationship with the New York Times, and a move over to ESPN—an opportunity to widen his appeal. In an interview, the FiveThirtyEight Editor-in-Chief talked about how he uses data to eliminate bias, and how data from China can come from unexpected sources. Edited excerpts:
How much of your predictions are your intuition, versus pure data analysis?
Once the model is designed there are no subjective tweaks made to it. In any type of complex system, there is judgment involved in the way you design a model. I don’t say, “I don’t like this result, so let me change the model” – it’s a matter of being completely disciplined in how you apply it. There is science, judgment, and experience – however you want to put it – in the principles of model design.
Can you apply good data analysis to poor data, for example, in China?
People in the United States and the United Kingdom overestimate the quality of economic data. Even if people are above board, it is simply hard to estimate something like the American economy. With China, you would have even more difficulty. I think the general lesson is that by looking at a broader consensus of indicators, you do well than just looking at one indicator or one sector. It is problematic to think about “how do you measure Chinese growth”. One way [is to look at] more public facing measures – by looking, for example, at the amount of light output emanating from China. I flew through Beijing [on the way to Hong Kong] – there was less physical brightness coming from Beijing than you would have seen from a comparable American city or European city. Read more of this post