China to ban new projects in sectors facing overcapacity, including steel, aluminium, shipbuilding and cement

China to ban new projects in sectors facing overcapacity

3:50am EDT

BEIJING, Oct 15 (Reuters) – China said it would block new projects in a number of sectors suffering from overcapacity, including steel, aluminium, shipbuilding and cement, according to a statement issued by the government on Tuesday. The long-awaited plan to tackle long-standing supply gluts in five industrial sectors was published by China’s cabinet, the State Council, according to the statement on China’s official government website, www.gov.cn. Margins in sectors like steel and aluminium have been affected for years by a massive supply glut, leaving many firms suffering heavy losses and reliant on government subsidy. According to the new plan, China will also seek to absorb overcapacity by stimulating domestic demand, relocating plants overseas, restructuring and merging existing firms and eliminating plants by strengthening environmental, safety and energy standards.

Singapore Shows Asia How To Crack Down on Housing Bubble?

Singapore Shows Asia How To Crack Down on Housing Bubble

Singapore, the city-state that banned chewing gum to curb litter, is showing the rest of Asia how to cool a housing bubble. The government this year ramped up efforts to bring down property prices that surged to a record, adopting some of its strictest measures, including a cap on debt at 60 percent of a borrower’s income, higher stamp duties on home purchases and an increase in real-estate taxes. Read more of this post

How Ho Chi Minh City’s Filthy Canal Became a Park

How Ho Chi Minh City’s Filthy Canal Became a Park

Sewers and storm drains don’t stir most people’s deepest passions. But try creating a modern, economically vibrant city without them. Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam’s economic capital, has spent the past decade building a modern sanitation and flood control system for the 1.2 million people living along its Nhieu Loc-Thi Nghe canal. Cleaning up this once-filthy waterway and creating new sanitation infrastructure has changed the face of the city, transforming it into a model for improving urban infrastructure in difficult settings around the world. Read more of this post

Fed Gets Bigger in Markets as QE Prompts New Tools

Fed Gets Bigger in Markets as QE Prompts New Tools

The Federal Reserve is getting more involved in debt markets as it tries to compensate for the impact of its almost $4 trillion balance sheet on short-term interest rates. Policy makers are testing a new tool intended to improve their control of near-term borrowing costs. The facility would allow banks, broker-dealers, money-market funds and some government-sponsored enterprises to lend the Fed unlimited amounts of cash overnight at a fixed rate in exchange for borrowing Treasuries in so-called reverse repo transactions. Read more of this post

Two Out of Five Americans Cut Spending Amid Government Shutdown

Two Out of Five Americans Cut Spending Amid Government Shutdown

The U.S. government shutdown prompted two out of five Americans to curb spending, according to a survey commissioned by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) The survey of 1,025 people, conducted from Oct. 10 to Oct. 13, found that the shutdown had a greater impact on lower income consumers, with 47 percent of respondents who earned $35,000 or less saying they would curb spending. Among those with income of more than $100,000, 32 percent said they would tighten spending. Read more of this post

Bodies Double as Cash Machines With U.S. Income Lagging: Economy

Bodies Double as Cash Machines With U.S. Income Lagging: Economy

Hair, breast milk and eggs are doubling as automated teller machines for some cash-strapped Americans such as April Hare. Out of work for more than two years and facing eviction from her home, Hare recalled Louisa May Alcott’s 19th-century novel and took to her computer. “I was just trying to find ways to make money, and I remembered Jo from ‘Little Women,’ and she sold her hair,” the 35-year-old from Atlanta said. “I’ve always had lots of hair, but this is the first time I’ve actually had the idea to sell it because I’m in a really tight jam right now.”

Read more of this post

Machines Trading $400 Billion of Bonds as Humans Retreat

Machines Trading $400 Billion of Bonds as Humans Retreat

A record share of U.S. corporate-bond trading has moved to computers as buyers who traditionally transacted over the phone seek faster ways to buy and sell in a market where Wall Street’s human traders are retreating. Investment-grade volumes on MarketAxess Holdings Inc.’s electronic system are on pace to exceed $400 billion in 2013 after surging 45 percent to $44 billion in September from a year earlier, according to data from the company, which estimates it captures about 90 percent of electronic trades among the dollar-denominated notes. That’s equal to 14.3 percent of all market activity, including business done over the phone, up from 12.2 percent a year earlier. Read more of this post

Mining M&A Decline Imperils Explorers’ Aspirations

Mining M&A Decline Imperils Explorers’ Aspirations

Mining acquisitions valued at less than $1 billion have slumped to an eight-year low as the industry’s largest players rein in spending after a drop in commodities prices. The slump threatens hundreds of exploration and development companies that don’t have revenue, more than half of which are based in Canada. Being bought by a larger miner is proving increasingly elusive as companies such as Toronto-based Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX), the biggest gold producer, avoid acquisitions and new projects in favor of improving existing operations. Read more of this post

Coal’s Slump Leaves Czech Town Facing Mass Unemployment

Coal’s Slump Leaves Czech Town Facing Mass Unemployment

Most mornings, Lubomir Nevrly drives past a forest of grimy chimneys and steel-mill towers spewing smoke over the eastern Czech city of Ostrava. He doesn’t want them to stop operating. “If they close another coal mine it will be a catastrophe for the region,” said the 60-year-old Ostrava native who spent two decades working as a miner. “Crime will go up, people will start drinking. Soon we’ll be afraid to go out on the streets.” Read more of this post

India Rupee Revived by Rajan as Carry Trade Favorite

India Rupee Revived by Rajan as Carry Trade Favorite

Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan has turned the rupee from a pariah to the world’s favorite currency after just a month in office as he intensifies efforts to quell inflation and lure capital. Investors selling dollars to buy rupees earned 10 percent since Rajan took over on Sept. 4, the most among 44 currencies tracked by Bloomberg and a turnaround from a 2.8 percent third-quarter loss. Options betting on one-month implied volatility show investors becoming more confident in the rupee than for any currency in Asia or the BRIC nations, which also include Brazil, Russia and China. Read more of this post

Indian sage dreams of gold to save economy, government starts digging

Indian sage dreams of gold to save economy, government starts digging

7:22am EDT

By Shyamantha Asokan

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – The Indian government is digging for treasure after a civic-minded Hindu village sage dreamt that 1,000 tons of gold was buried under a ruined palace, and wrote to tell the central bank about it. The state Archaeological Survey of India has sent a team of archaeologists to the village of Daundia Khera in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh. They are due to start digging on Friday, Praveen Kumar Mishra, the head archaeologist in the state, told Reuters. Read more of this post

Mandatory vs. Voluntary Management Earnings Forecasts in China

Mandatory vs. Voluntary Management Earnings Forecasts in China

Xiaobei Huang University of International Business and Economics – Business School

Xi Li Temple University – Fox School of Business and Management

Senyo Y. Tse Texas A&M University – Lowry Mays College & Graduate School of Business

Jenny Wu Tucker University of Florida – Warrington College of Business Administration

May 2, 2013
Mays Business School Research Paper No. 2012-82

Abstract: 
Capital-market regulators face the question of whether mandating management earnings forecasts would improve the information environment or be counterproductive. We examine the efficacy of a forecast regulation in the emerging market of China, which mandates management earnings forecasts in certain performance regions such as anticipated losses, turning profit, and large changes in earnings from the previous year and allows voluntary forecasts in other circumstances. We examine the quantity, quality, and usefulness of mandatory forecasts by comparing firms’ forecast behavior under the mandatory vs. voluntary regime in China. Our results suggest that the Chinese mandate substantially increases the quantity of information available to investors, particularly by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) — firms that play a major role in the economy but are reluctant to provide forecasts voluntarily. Firms that issue mandatory forecasts are more likely to issue voluntary forecasts in the subsequent year. Yet mandatory forecasts are less timely and less precise than voluntary forecasts, suggesting that mandatory forecasts are of lower quality than voluntary forecasts. On balance, investors react to mandatory forecasts as if they are useful. One unintended consequence of the mandate is that firms appear to manage their reported earnings to avoid the bright-line threshold for mandatory forecasts of large earnings decreases. Overall, our evidence provides guidance to regulators in emerging markets and feedback to regulators in developed economies.

The Vicarious Wisdom of Crowds: Toward a Behavioral Perspective on Investor Reactions to Acquisition Announcements

The Vicarious Wisdom of Crowds: Toward a Behavioral Perspective on Investor Reactions to Acquisition Announcements

Mario Schijven Texas A&M University – Department of Management

Michael A. Hitt Texas A&M University – Department of Management

2012
Strat. Mgmt. J. (2012)
Mays Business School Research Paper No. 2012-17

Abstract: 
Although event-study methodology is invaluable to strategic management research, we argue that the traditional financial economic rationale on which it is based has led scholars to assume away the behavioral mechanisms underlying investor reactions. Building on behavioral theory from management, psychology, and economics, we set out to develop a behavioral perspective on investor reactions to acquisition announcements — one that relaxes the assumption of investors making objective, rational-deductive calculations. Given the information asymmetry they face, we theorize that investors (1) infer management’s perception of an acquisition’s synergistic potential from the premium it pays, and (2) draw on additional public information to assess the reliability of that perception. Using a multi-industry sample of acquisitions by North American firms, we find considerable support for our behavioral framework.

Can Asia Produce a Precision Castparts (PCP), a 1,000X Compounder? (Bamboo Innovator Insight)

The following article is extracted from the Bamboo Innovator Insight weekly column blog related to the context and thought leadership behind the stock idea generation process of Asian wide-moat businesses that are featured in the monthly entitled The Moat Report Asia. Fellow value investors get to go behind the scene to learn thought-provoking timely insights on key macro and industry trends in Asia, as well as benefit from the occasional discussion of potential red flags, misgovernance or fraud-detection trails ahead of time to enhance the critical-thinking skill about the myriad pitfalls of investing in Asia at the microstructure- and firm-level.

Asia PCPDear Friends and All,

Can Asia produce a Precision Castparts Corp (PCP)? PCP grew from a small metal casting workshop to become one of the best compounders in American capital history, up over 1,700x in three decades plus to a global giant with a market cap of $34.7 billion. In other words, an initial investment of $100,000 compounds to over $170 million.

This is one of the questions that I asked rhetorically in our recent Members’ Forum dialogue with one of our thoughtful Institutional Subscribers, who come from various continents spanning from North America, the Nordic, Europe and Asia, including professional value investors with over $20 billion in asset under management. This is not a trivial question since the median market cap of Asian companies is below $100 million, which is PCP’s market value before 1980. Even Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway was attracted to the wide moat of PCP and initiated the purchase of 1.248 million shares in 3Q2012, a stake subsequently increased to 1.977 million shares that’s now worth over $450 million in its latest 13F filing; the astute capital allocators also overcome this major psychological barrier faced by many value investors: buying a stock that has already gone up multiple-folds. It is common for value investors to run screens for “cyclically cheap” stocks trading at 52-weeks low or 3-5 years low and “overlook” stocks like PCP or Fastenal who are long-term industry consolidators with their business models overcoming short-term cyclicality.

In the Forum, our institutional subscriber was initially asking about how the net cash position of a steel and aluminum stockist-cum-fabricator family business listed in Southeast Asia can be nearly two-third of its market cap which is below $100 million. The stock appears cheap, trading at a price-to-book of 0.68x. So a natural counter question: Could the high net cash be misleading and the stock is a value trap? How about tunneling opportunities of the cash via related party transactions? Is the listed company a front to act as a loan guarantor for its unlisted companies in the business group so that the high net cash mask the massive hidden off-balance-sheet debt at the group level? All these are prevalent situations in Asia that value investors using quant screens neglect to investigate, especially when share prices and volume of the illiquid stocks are manipulated.

And what similarities do PCP and the below chart of a Northeast Asian-listed stock, a family business which has 25% domestic market share in a relatively stable-demand product and run by the Seul family for 58 years, appear to have in common? What are the important differences that resulted in PCP becoming a resilient Bamboo Innovator but not the Asian company below?

Taihan Electric Wire Co. Ltd. (001440.KS) – Stock Price Performance, 1983-2013

BII_Oct2013_841

The Moat Report Asia Members’ Forum has been getting penetrating quality dialogues from our existing institutional subscribers from North America, the Nordic, Europe and Asia. Questions range from:

  • The nuances of internal dealings in Asia, including the case discussion of the recent deal in which HK billionaire’s Lee Shau-kee Henderson Land acquiring Towngas or Hong Kong & China Gas (3 HK) from his family holdings, seemingly déjà vu from the early Oct 2007 transaction when the market peak.
  • The case of F&N Singapore spinning out its property unit FCL Trust and getting “free” special dividend-in-specie and the potential risk in asset swap restructuring to deleverage the hidden debt in the entire Group balance sheet.
  • Discussion of the wise and thoughtful 107-year-old Irving Kahn’s investment into a US-listed but Hong Kong-based electronics company with development property project in Shenzhen’s Qianhai zone and the possible corporate governance risks that could be underestimated or overlooked, as well as their history of listing some assets in HK in 2004.. This is also a case study of “buy one get one free” in John’s highly-acclaimed book The Manual of Ideas in which the “free” property is lumped together with the (eroding) core business to make the combined entity look cheap and undervalued. What are the potential areas that value investors need to watch out for when adapting the SOTP (sum-of-the-parts) method in Asia?
  • And many more intriguing questions.

Do find out more in how you can benefit from authentic and candid on-the-ground insights that sell-side analysts and brokers, with their inherent conflict-of-interests, inevitable focus on conventional stock coverage and different clientele priorities, are unwilling or unable to share. Think of this as pressing the Bloomberg “Help Help” button to navigate the Asian capital jungle. Institutional subscribers also get access to the Bamboo Innovator Index of 200+ companies and Watchlist of 500+ companies in Asia and the Database has eliminated companies with a higher probability of accounting frauds and  misgovernance as well as the alluring value traps.

An Uncommonly Cohesive Conglomerate: How United Technologies Corporation—owner of Pratt & Whitney, Otis Elevator, and a wide range of other businesses—became one of the major corporate success stories of the past two decades.

Published: August 27, 2013

An Uncommonly Cohesive Conglomerate

How United Technologies Corporation—owner of Pratt & Whitney, Otis Elevator, and a wide range of other businesses—became one of the major corporate success stories of the past two decades.See also The Story of UTCʼs Success—In Pictures.

by George L. Roth

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Right from the start, the service call was unusual. In a business-to-business manufacturing company like Otis Elevator—or its corporate parent, the United Technologies Corporation (UTC)—field engineers are supposed to be heroes. They swoop in when there’s a technical problem too complex for anyone else to solve. But when two of Otis’s best field engineers were dispatched from their U.S. headquarters near Hartford, Conn., to Osaka, Japan, to fix a pair of malfunctioning elevators at Matsushita Electric, they weren’t brought to the problem site. Instead, they were ushered into a conference room where their customers, Matsushita’s corporate leadership, sat stone-faced around a table. Read more of this post

Oct. 17 Is Start Rather Than Finish of Debt-Limit Crisis Endgame

Oct. 17 Is Start Rather Than Finish of Debt-Limit Crisis Endgame

The day after tomorrow represents the beginning of Washington’s debt-crisis end game, not the end of it. The Treasury Department expects to exhaust its borrowing authority no later than Oct. 17, leaving the federal government with no more than $30 billion on hand. Depending upon daily tax receipts and incoming bills, the U.S. government could be forced to default on its obligations at any date thereafter — to bond holders and millions of Social Security recipients. Read more of this post

SoftBank Buys 51% in Finnish developer Supercell Oy for $1.53 billion to add games including “Clash of Clans” and “Hay Day.”

SoftBank Buys ‘Clash of Clans’ Developer Majority Stake

SoftBank Corp. (9984), Japan’s third-largest wireless carrier, bought a 51 percent stake in the Finnish developer Supercell Oy for $1.53 billion to add games including “Clash of Clans” and “Hay Day.” The deal values all of the game developer at $3 billion and will help accelerate global growth, Supercell Chief Executive Officer Ilkka Paananen said by phone today. SoftBank, led by billionaire President Masayoshi Son, is making deals in Europe and North America to tap growth amid a declining population at home. The company paid $21.6 billion for control of Sprint Corp. and invested $150 million in 2010 to acquire a minority stake in Zynga Game Network Inc. Read more of this post

Freelancers Spur Gig Economy by Tapping Online Exchanges

Freelancers Spur Gig Economy by Tapping Online Exchanges

Two years into his new career writing code for phone apps, Leo Landau works for companies as far away as Australia while never leaving his apartment in Eugene, Oregon. By year’s end he expects to earn $10,000 more than inspecting buildings for asbestos, a job he lost in 2008. “I’m working from home, setting my own schedule and making decent money,” Landau said. He doesn’t plan on moving to California’s Silicon Valley even if he could land higher-paying work there. For now, the self-taught programmer, 31, says he enjoys cobbling together an income via Elance, a website where companies and short-term contractors pair up. Read more of this post

Auction.com Aims Bigger Than Holyfield’s 109-Room Mansion

Auction.com Aims Bigger Than Holyfield’s 109-Room Mansion

Jeff Frieden, chief executive officer of Auction.com LLC, learned to sell real estate by managing a room full of bidders with rapid-fire patter. “Gimme 100 here, 150 in the back, 175, 200,” Frieden said during an interview at his firm’s Irvine, California, headquarters, pointing to imaginary bidders while pretending to hold an auctioneer’s microphone and push product with his mouth. “I’ve been on the auction block for nine hours and sold 500 houses in a day. That was in the old days.” Read more of this post

Norway Heats Up as Wealth Fund Nears $1 Trillion: Nordic Credit

Norway Heats Up as Wealth Fund Nears $1 Trillion: Nordic Credit

Norway’s incoming Prime Minister Erna Solberg will have no shortage of cash for her campaign promises. The question is: how much does she dare use? The Labor government, which resigned yesterday, presented what it called a “cautious” budget, saying it would use 135 billion kroner ($22 billion) of Norway’s oil wealth to plug deficits next year, equal to 5.5 percent of mainland gross domestic product. That leaves Solberg’s administration with 54 billion kroner to spend before it breaches the nation’s fiscal policy rule. Read more of this post

Bitcoin Mining Rush Means Real Cash for Hardware Makers

Bitcoin Mining Rush Means Real Cash for Hardware Makers

Bitcoin, the virtual money that exists only in digital form, is spawning a real-world hardware boom. The currency, used to buy and sell everything from electronics to illegal drugs on the Web, has surged to about $135, more than 10 times its value a year ago. The rally has created a cottage industry of speculators eager to get their hands on Bitcoins, which can only be created digitally by using powerful computers to solve complex software problems. That has in turn boosted a market for high-powered machines, some costing more than $20,000 apiece, which are custom-made to unlock new Bitcoins in a process called mining, a nod to the excavation of minerals and metal ore. Read more of this post

Breaking Through Cancer’s Shield: The recent discovery that cancers can evade the immune system by wrapping themselves in a protective shield offered a bonus: a way to try to thwart their growth

October 14, 2013

Breaking Through Cancer’s Shield

By GINA KOLATA

For more than a century, researchers were puzzled by the uncanny ability of cancer cells to evade the immune system. They knew cancer cells were grotesquely abnormal and should be killed by white blood cells. In the laboratory, in Petri dishes, white blood cells could go on the attack against cancer cells. Why, then, could cancers survive in the body? The answer, when it finally came in recent years, arrived with a bonus: a way to thwart a cancer’s strategy. Researchers discovered that cancers wrap themselves in an invisible protective shield. And they learned that they could break into that shield with the right drugs. Read more of this post

14 Jeff Bezos Quotes That Show Why Amazon’s Boss Is A Total Genius; On haters: “If you never want to be criticized, for goodness’ sake don’t do anything new.”

14 Jeff Bezos Quotes That Show Why Amazon’s Boss Is A Total Genius

JILLIAN D’ONFRO OCT. 13, 2013, 12:38 PM 222,527 21

on-pricing-there-are-two-kinds-of-companies-those-that-work-to-try-to-charge-more-and-those-that-work-to-charge-less-we-will-be-the-second

Jeff Bezos, founder and CEO of Amazon, is a billionaire who’s had an amazing life and career: He’s building a mysterious 10,000-year clock in a West Texas cave. Earlier this year, he bought the Washington Post for $250 million. You wouldn’t want to get on his bad side. Bezos achieved so much success by being incredibly smart and business savvy, and so we rounded up some quotes that show his genius.

On complacency: “A company shouldn’t get addicted to being shiny, because shiny doesn’t last.”

On innovation: “I think frugality drives innovation, just like other constraints do. One of the only ways to get out of a tight box is to invent your way out.”

On progress: “If you’re competitor-focused, you have to wait until there is a competitor doing something. Being customer-focused allows you to be more pioneering.”

On developing company culture: “Part of company culture is path-dependent—it’s the lessons you learn along the way.”

On new ideas: “There’ll always be serendipity involved in discovery.”

On haters: “If you never want to be criticized, for goodness’ sake don’t do anything new.”

On motivation: “I strongly believe that missionaries make better products. They care more. For a missionary, it’s not just about the business. There has to be a business, and the business has to make sense, but that’s not why you do it. You do it because you have something meaningful that motivates you.”

On choosing friends: “Life’s too short to hang out with people who aren’t resourceful.”

On morals: “The one thing that offends me the most is when I walk by a bank and see ads trying to convince people to take out second mortgages on their home so they can go on vacation. That’s approaching evil.”

One strategy: “We’ve had three big ideas at Amazon that we’ve stuck with for 18 years, and they’re the reason we’re successful: Put the customer first. Invent. And be patient.”

On growth: “All businesses need to be young forever. If your customer base ages with you, you’re Woolworth’s.”

On pivoting: “If you’re not stubborn, you’ll give up on experiments too soon. And if you’re not flexible, you’ll pound your head against the wall and you won’t see a different solution to a problem you’re trying to solve.”

On marketing: “In the old world, you devoted 30% of your time to building a great service and 70% of your time to shouting about it. In the new world, that inverts.”

On pricing: “There are two kinds of companies, those that work to try to charge more and those that work to charge less. We will be the second.”

Haier and higher: The radical boss of Haier wants to transform the world’s biggest appliance-maker into a nimble internet-age firm

Haier and higher: The radical boss of Haier wants to transform the world’s biggest appliance-maker into a nimble internet-age firm

Oct 12th 2013 | QINGDAO |From the print edition

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“NO URINATION or defecation in the working area.” That admonition was among 13 rules that managers felt necessary to post on the walls of a shambolic fridge factory in Qingdao in the early 1980s. After several senior managers failed to turn it around, in 1984 the municipal government of the Chinese city appointed a young employee, Zhang Ruimin, as the firm’s boss. The gamble worked. Since then a lousy local firm has turned into the world’s biggest appliance-maker. Read more of this post

Fish Can’t See Water: How National Culture Can Make or Break Your Corporate Strategy

Fish Can’t See Water: How National Culture Can Make or Break Your Corporate Strategy Hardcover

by Kai Hammerich  (Author) , Richard D. Lewis (Author)

How national culture impacts organizational culture—and business success

Fish Can't See Water

Using extensive case studies of successful global corporations, this book explores the impact of national culture on the corporate strategy and its execution, and through this ultimately business success—or failure. It does not argue that different cultures lead to different business results, but that all cultures impact organizations in ways both positive and negative, depending on the business cycle, the particular business, and the particular strategies being pursued. Depending on all of these factors, cultural dynamics can either enable or derail performance. But recognizing those cultural factors is difficult for business leaders; like everyone else, they too can be blind to the culture of which they are a part. The book offers managers and leaders eight recommendations for recognizing those cultural factors that negatively impact performance, as well as those that can be harnessed to encourage superior performance. With real case studies from companies in Asia, Europe, and the United States, this book offers a truly global approach to organizational culture. Offers a fresh approach to the effects of national culture on organizational culture that is applicable to any country in any region

Based on case studies of such companies as Toyota, Samsung, General Motors, Nokia, Walmart, Kone and British Leyland

It describes the origins and nature of the most common corporate crisis and how culture impacts the response to such a crisis

Ideal for managers, business leaders, and board members, as well as business school students

A welcome response to the flat-Earth fad that argues we’re all alike, this book offers a nuanced and practical view of cultural differentiators and how they can enable or derail business performance. Read more of this post

Why the efficient markets hypothesis merited a Nobel

October 14, 2013 1:35 pm

Why the efficient markets hypothesis merited a Nobel

By Tim Harford

Any follower of Fama would have smelled a rat before the subprime crisis, says Tim Harford

Few Nobel-watchers will be surprised at the award of a Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics to Robert Shiller, the man who told us that markets could be irrationally exuberant. He has long been a favourite. More of a surprise is that Eugene Fama is one of the two men – with Lars Peter Hansen – sharing the prize with Professor Shiller. The old joke about the economics Nobel was that it had been shared by two men who disagreed with each other: Friedrich von Hayek and Gunnar Myrdal. Profs Fama and Shiller, at first glance, are another example: Prof Fama showed that markets were efficient; Prof Shiller showed that they were not. Read more of this post

Pilgrimages are a big business—and getting bigger; The haj, which all Muslims aspire to do at least once in their lifetimes, now brings in $16.5 billion, around 3% of Saudi GDP

Pilgrimages are a big business—and getting bigger

Oct 12th 2013 | BEIRUT AND CAIRO |From the print edition

MECCANS say they do not need agriculture, for God has given them the pilgrimage as their annual crop. Millions of Muslims are now setting out to take part in this year’s haj, a trek to Islam’s holiest site, in Saudi Arabia. The haj, which all Muslims aspire to do at least once in their lifetimes, now brings in $16.5 billion, around 3% of Saudi GDP. Jerusalem, a holy city for all three Abrahamic religions, also draws crowds of pilgrims, and huge numbers of Shia Muslims visit shrines in Iraq. The UN’s World Tourism Organisation estimates that over 300m people go on pilgrimages each year. Countless others visit shrines or sacred places. Read more of this post

The Rapid Advance of Artificial Intelligence

October 14, 2013

The Rapid Advance of Artificial Intelligence

By JOHN MARKOFF

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Baxter, made by Rethink Robotics, doesn’t rely on programming alone: It can sense what needs to be done and adapt itself to the task.

A gaggle of Harry Potter fans descended for several days this summer on the Oregon Convention Center in Portland for the Leaky Con gathering, an annual haunt of a group of predominantly young women who immerse themselves in a fantasy world of magic, spells and images. The jubilant and occasionally squealing attendees appeared to have no idea that next door a group of real-world wizards was demonstrating technology that only a few years ago might have seemed as magical. Read more of this post

Apple Hires Burberry C.E.O.

October 15, 2013

Apple Hires Burberry C.E.O.

By BRIAN X. CHEN

SAN FRANCISCO — Apple announced Tuesday that it hired Angela Ahrendts, the chief executive of Burberry, the British luxury fashion company, as a member of its executive team. The company said Ms. Ahrendts would serve in a newly created role as senior vice president overseeing the strategy and operation of its retail and online stores. She will start working for Apple in the spring. Read more of this post

As Microsoft Updates Mobile Software, a Cautionary Tale

OCTOBER 14, 2013, 8:00 AM

As Microsoft Updates Mobile Software, a Cautionary Tale

By NICK WINGFIELD

REDMOND, Wash. — If Microsoft has learned anything while competing against Google in the Internet search business, it’s that Google clings to a dominant position like a squatter does a house. The lesson is a relevant one for Microsoft’s mobile phone business. Microsoft is discovering that gains in market share for its phones are incremental, slowly acquired and ultimately dwarfed by Google’s position. Just as in search, Microsoft steadily rolls out nice improvements to its mobile products, the latest batch of which are being announced Monday. At least in the past, though, these refinements have not created a swell of people who find them compelling enough to choose Microsoft over Google’s Android system. Read more of this post