Sony Struggles to Stay In the Game; Bleak Outlook for Consumer Electronics Business Worries Analysts, Investors

Sony Struggles to Stay In the Game

Bleak Outlook for Consumer Electronics Business Worries Analysts, Investors

JURO OSAWA

Updated Nov. 1, 2013 12:10 p.m. ET

MK-CH475_SONY_NS_20131031193006

In just three months, Sony Corp. 6758.TO -11.13% went from a company on the mend to one whose recovery is now in serious doubt. Hidekazu Miyahara, an analyst at Marusan Securities8613.TO -1.25% recalls the celebratory mood at Sony’s earnings briefing in Tokyo in late July. The Japanese electronics giant had just reported a net profit for the three months ended June 30 and analysts saw signs of a recovery in Sony’s core electronics operations following restructuring that involved 10,000 layoffs. During the question-and-answer session, another analyst told the executives how excited he was to see the television business finally turn profitable. Read more of this post

Forecasts From Nissan and Sony Provide Japan Inc. Reality Check

Forecasts From Nissan and Sony Provide Japan Inc. Reality Check

MAYUMI NEGISHI and HIROYUKI KACHI

Nov. 1, 2013 7:21 p.m. ET

TOKYO—Surprise cuts in profit forecasts from Nissan Motor Co. 7201.TO -2.14% andSony Corp. 6758.TO -11.13% are giving pause to believers in Japan’s corporate recovery and highlight the risks still facing the country’s biggest brands. Nissan cut its full-year profit outlook by 15% on Friday, blaming weakness in emerging markets and big recall costs, and overhauled its management. Read more of this post

Festival Demand Eludes India’s Top Auto Makers

Festival Demand Eludes India’s Top Auto Makers

October Sales Increase Marginally at Maruti and Hyundai Unit, Fall at Tata Motors and Mahindra

SANTANU CHOUDHURY

Updated Nov. 1, 2013 11:05 a.m. ET

NEW DELHI—India’s ongoing festival season has failed to enliven the automobile market as the country’s top auto makers posted lower or nearly flat sales in October. Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. 532500.BY +0.28% and the local unit of Hyundai Motor Co., the country’s largest car makers by sales, Friday reported marginal increase in sales from October last year. At Tata Motors Ltd. 500570.BY +0.91% and Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.500520.BY +2.03% , sales fell in the past month. Read more of this post

Pawnbrokers shine in Singapore as middle class feel the pinch

November 1, 2013 12:02 pm

Pawnbrokers shine in Singapore as middle class feel the pinch

By Jeremy Grant in Singapore

At a pawnshop in Bendemeer shopping centre in Singapore, Janani Amirthalinga is swapping a gold bangle, ring and pair of earrings to pay her daughters’ school fees. “My husband and I have just bought a house so all my money’s stuck there,” Mrs Amirthalinga says. Even though she earns S$3,000 ($2,400) a month as an administrator and her husband works as well, the monthly family income is insufficient, she says. Read more of this post

Why It’s Time to Reassess Your Emerging-Market Strategy: From Emerging to Diverging Markets

Why It’s Time to Reassess Your Emerging-Market Strategy: From Emerging to Diverging Markets

by Harold L. Sirkin and David C. Michael

OCTOBER 29, 2013

Sharp swings in exchange rates. Swooning equity markets. Slowing growth. Investors in emerging markets over the past three decades have seen all these warning signs before. And when they flash in a number of economies simultaneously, the outcome often is not good. So what should we make of the volatility that seems to be suddenly sweeping some of the world’s most dynamic developing economies, including China, India, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia, and Mexico? For more than a decade, the economic success of these emerging markets has driven global growth and lifted millions of people out of poverty. Companies that built international businesses around such markets have found important new sources of growth and lowered their costs. Read more of this post

Sohn London Conference Notes 2013

Sohn London Conference Notes 2013: Hohn, Armitage, Tangen, Gaonkar & More

Posted: 01 Nov 2013 07:49 AM PDT

The 2013 Sohn London Conference just took place and MarketFolly has notes below.  The event featured hedge fund managers presenting their latest investment ideas benefiting paediatric cancer and childhood disease research. Read more of this post

Rents force Chinatown locals to ponder long march to suburbia

November 1, 2013 7:55 pm

Rents force Chinatown locals to ponder long march to suburbia

By Amie Tsang in London, Anjli Raval in New York and April Dembosky in San Francisco

For Lawrence Cheng, the arrival of another betting shop in London’s Chinatown district is one more nail in the coffin of the immigrant business community whose colourful, lantern-laced streets have been part of the capital since the 1950s. “We need another betting shop like we need a hole in the head,” says Mr Cheng, a restaurant owner who serves as secretary-general at the London Chinatown Chinese Association. “Within 60 yards of where you’re sitting there are seven or eight bookies.” Read more of this post

Pricewaterhouse Takeover of Booz Risks Culture Clash

NOVEMBER 1, 2013, 3:18 PM

Pricewaterhouse Takeover of Booz Risks Culture Clash

By KEVIN ALLISON

PricewaterhouseCoopers’ proposed takeover of the strategy firm Booz & Company would be the most prominent example yet of a Big Four auditor bulking up on consulting. But restrictions enacted after the Enron scandal of 2001 mean advisory services employees could end up battling with accountants over clients. While the midsize Booz & Company may feel pressure to compete with rivals like Boston Consulting Group and McKinsey & Company, the proposed deal with PricewaterhouseCoopers risks a huge culture clash. Read more of this post

Pirates Hauling $400 Million Since ’05 Pocket Little of Booty; Pirates off the Horn of Africa pocket as little as 0.01% of ransoms, which they tend to spend on alcohol, expensive cars, while financiers keep 75% of loot

Pirates Hauling $400 Million Since ’05 Pocket Little of Booty

Pirates off the Horn of Africa pocket as little as 0.01 percent of ransoms, which they tend to spend on alcohol, expensive cars and prostitutes, while financiers keep as much as three-quarters of the loot, a new report shows. The 129-page joint report by the World Bank, Interpol and the United Nations’s crime unit opens a window into their operating rules and lifestyle. It also shows the crime has evolved from locally funded operations to transnational networks, costing the global economy about $18 billion in increased trade expenses. Read more of this post

Norway’s $810 billion sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, is finding its record size is becoming a hurdle that’s complicating its investment decisions

World’s Biggest Wealth Fund Says Record Size Is Posing Hurdles

Norway’s $810 billion sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, is finding its record size is becoming a hurdle that’s complicating its investment decisions. “The challenge that we have, and we have already experienced, is the size,” Petter Johnsen, chief investment officer for equities at fund, said today after a speech in Gjoevik, north of Oslo. “The fund has grown very fast during a short time.” Read more of this post

Money laundering taints wine trade; while vineyards in France are favoured investments for Chinese and Russian money launderers, it’s only the tip of the iceberg in terms of trade-based ‘dirty money’ schemes

Money laundering taints wine trade

Monday, 28 October, 2013, 9:36pm

Avi Jorisch says while vineyards in France are favoured investments for Chinese and Russian money launderers, it’s only the tip of the iceberg in terms of trade-based ‘dirty money’ schemes

Bucolic regions in the south of France represent the newest frontier for law enforcement and intelligence officials searching for dirty funds. Since 2008, thousands of people with alleged criminal connections have reportedly arrived in southwest France from eastern Europe, Hong Kong and mainland China to snap up vineyards to launder their money. European and Asian officials must take steps and curb this trend, including establishing trade transparency units to combat trade fraud. Read more of this post

Global Wine Shortage A Boon For New World Exporters

Global Wine Shortage A Boon For New World Exporters [REPORT]

by Marie CaburalNovember 1, 2013

Wine lovers might end up paying higher prices in the near future for their next bottle because there’s currently a global shortage of wine. Consumer demand for wine is increasing, but the supply is not enough, according to a report.

Increase in demand

The report from Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) financial services indicated that the demand for wine “exceeded supply by 300 million cases in 2012.” According to the report, the wine shortage was the “deepest shortfall” recorded in the history of the wine industry over the past 40 years. Read more of this post

Fund managers ‘buy shares they don’t like’; “I’ve had managers admit to me that they own stocks in which they have no conviction. They do it because they don’t want to stray too far from the benchmark.”

Fund managers ‘buy shares they don’t like’

Some fund managers copy their rivals with large holdings in the same shares to avoid standing out from the crowd

By Richard Evans, Investment Editor

7:56AM GMT 02 Nov 2013

If the manager of a football club picked players he didn’t believe in, supporters would be up in arms. But a similar practice on the part of fund managers is accepted by thousands of investors. Many of the professionals paid to manage your money back companies despite privately rating them as poor investments, some experts within the industry say. Private investors would expect the fund managers they trust with their money to research companies thoroughly and then invest only in those that they believe in. So why does the opposite sometimes happen? Read more of this post

Fed to Test Banks for Interest Rate Rise, Housing Collapse

Fed to Test Banks for Interest Rate Rise, Housing Collapse

The Federal Reserve said it will examine how the biggest banks might react to a jump in long-term interest rates and another housing crash as it released the next round of stress-test scenarios designed to monitor the ability of the U.S. financial system to withstand economic shocks. The central bank mentioned that as part of two adverse scenarios it will gauge bank resilience against declines in the prices of high-risk, high-yield loans and debt and some high-priced real estate markets around the country, according to a statement released in Washington today. The central bank also inserted a test for large trading and clearing banks on counterparty default. Read more of this post

A Once-a-Year Investing Opportunity; Many stocks are artificially depressed by year-end tax-loss selling

A Once-a-Year Investing Opportunity

Many stocks are artificially depressed by year-end tax-loss selling.

MARK HULBERT

Nov. 1, 2013 6:52 p.m. ET

One of the year’s best trading opportunities is about to come around. Some even refer to it as a “free lunch.” The strategy involves buying stocks in the last few weeks of the year that are artificially depressed after investors sell them off for tax reasons. Often, these stocks bounce back nicely in January after this selling has abated. You should begin now to prepare the list of stocks you would want to buy should “tax-loss selling,” as it is called, depress their prices. Such selling has begun as early as November in recent years, and some traders have immediately snatched up the resultant bargains. You could miss out on some great deals if you wait until late December to act. Read more of this post

Why can’t banking be more like baking?

November 1, 2013 6:32 pm

Why can’t banking be more like baking?

By Tim Harford

The last time a bread maker laid waste to the City was 1666, writes Tim Harford

“It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we can expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.” Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations

A tender medallion of steak, a foaming pint of bitter and a crusty roll still hot from the oven – no wonder that Adam Smith chose an alliterative trio of artisanal food providers to make his point about the benefits of capitalism. If he had chosen a junk bond salesman, a fund manager, and a quantitative analyst, wielding a Gaussian copula in an effort to price a synthetic credit derivative, his defence of the market mechanism might not have resonated down the centuries in quite the same way. Read more of this post

Spain-Based Fagor, Europe’s Fifth Largest Appliance Maker, On Verge Of Bankruptcy

Spain-Based Fagor, Europe’s Fifth Largest Appliance Maker, On Verge Of Bankruptcy

Tyler Durden on 11/01/2013 17:46 -0400

There has been much media insinuation in recent months that just because Spain’s economy has virtually shuttered, and imports have slid to unprecedented low levels in the process pushing the (adjusted) GDP beancount positive for the first time in 3 years, that things are somehow getting better. What the media has roundly ignored is that as a result of the collapse in consumption and end demand, courtesy of an unemployment rate that at least according to Eurostat just rose to a new record high, the companies that actually operate in Spain and form the basis for any real economic growth, are shuttering at an unprecedented pace. Of note: Spanish electrical appliance maker Fagor, which employs 5,700 people worldwide, or in a few shorts months, employed, is one step closer to bankruptcy after its Polish subsidiary filed for protection from its creditors. The company, which claims to be the fifth-biggest electrical appliance company in Europe, had trading of its debt suspended after its mother firm – private Spanish conglomerate Mondragon – refused to pour in money to rescue the company. Fagor makes washing machines, refrigerators and other appliances at 13 factories in five countries. Or, in a few shorts months, made.

AFP reports:

31 OCTOBER 2013 – 20H58

Major Spain appliance-maker Fagor risks bankruptcy

Spanish electrical appliance maker Fagor, employing 5,700 people worldwide, slid closer to bankruptcy as its Polish subsidiary filed for protection from its creditorsSpanish electrical appliance maker Fagor, employing 5,700 people worldwide, slid closer to bankruptcy as its Polish subsidiary filed for protection from its creditors Read more of this post

Indonesia capital raises minimum wage by 11 per cent amid tepid call for more

Indonesia capital raises minimum wage by 11 per cent amid tepid call for more

Friday, Nov 01, 2013

Reuters

JAKARTA – Indonesia’s capital raised its minimum wages by 11 per cent on Friday, far below demands for a 50 per cent rise during a two-day strike that failed to draw the millions hoped for by labour unions. Police put Friday’s turnout on the streets of Jakarta and neighbouring industrial areas in the thousands only, with two of the three major unions staying at work, saying a repeat of last year’s 44 per cent increase could jeopardise jobs at the time when growth is slowing. Read more of this post

Muddy Waters: Chinese Media Exposes Lies About NQ’s “Partnerships”

Chinese Media Exposes Lies About NQ’s “Partnerships” (NYSE: NQ)
Published On November 1, 2013

It is beneficial for US investors to read Chinese media coverage of our NQ reports. This update consists of English translations of four articles that have appeared in Chinese media in the past week. There are two articles quoting certain of NQ’s purported partners (e.g., ZTE) as stating that NQ fabricated the partnerships. One article covers the disappearance of NQ / FL Mobile’s games from the iTunes store. One article is an IM exchange between Chinese investors and Chairman Lin. (The host of the chat was Xueqiu.com, a Chinese investment site.) Chairman Lin seems to take pain to avoid directly answering tough questions, such as those stating that NQ’s market share claims do not match with Chinese investors’ observations. The articles also mention Chairman Lin’s (unverified) claim that NQ has sued Muddy Waters in China.

The articles are:

  • NQ’s “Business Partners” ZTE, Huawei and Lenovo, Denied There Was Pre-installation Cooperation, The Beijing News, Oct. 30, 2013.
  • NQ Accused of Unilaterally Fabricating Reports of Cooperation with ZTE, Money.163.com, Oct. 25, 2013.
  • FL Mobile: iOS Games Drop-off Issue Still Under Discussion, Sina Technology, Oct. 29, 2013.
  • NQ Mobile CEO Yu Lin: We have filed a lawsuit in China against Muddy Waters, and are considering organizing an anti-Muddy-Waters group, Caijing News, Oct. 29, 2013.

Unprofitable Affiliates and Income Shifting Behavior

Unprofitable Affiliates and Income Shifting Behavior

Lisa De Simone Stanford Graduate School of Business

Jeri K. Seidman University of Texas at Austin – McCombs School of Business

October 15, 2013
Rock Center for Corporate Governance at Stanford University Working Paper No. 157

Abstract: 
Income shifting from high-tax jurisdictions to low-tax jurisdictions is commonly considered in the accounting, finance and economics literature as a method to reduce worldwide tax burdens of multinational firms. However, the presence of an unprofitable affiliate provides another potential tax-reducing recipient of shifted income. We develop an income prediction model that does not rely on the logarithm of profitability and thus can be applied to both profitable and unprofitable affiliates. After confirming prior results on a sample of profitable affiliates using our new model, we test whether unprofitable affiliates report lower losses than a matched sample of unprofitable stand-alone firms, and whether these differences in profitability are correlated with tax-related factors. Results are consistent with income shifting to unprofitable affiliates being an important transfer pricing consideration for multinational firms; however, we also find evidence of risk sharing within multinational groups. Overall, results suggest that risk sharing and a shift-to-loss income shifting strategy both influence the unexpected profitability of unprofitable affiliates.

The Downside of Legitimacy Building for a New Firm in a Nascent Industry

The Downside of Legitimacy Building for a New Firm in a Nascent Industry

Tiona Zuzul Harvard Business School

Amy C. Edmondson Harvard University – Technology & Operations Management Unit

October 24, 2013
Harvard Business School Technology & Operations Mgt. Unit Working Paper No. 11-099

Abstract: 
This paper explores how entrepreneurs‘ efforts to legitimate a firm and a nascent industry at the same time affect the internal development of the firm. We analyze qualitative data from a three-year study of a new firm in the nascent smart cities industry, and find that firm leaders engaged in a set of legitimation activities intended to help external stakeholders understand and appreciate the firm and its industry. Our analysis uncovers three unintended cognitive consequences of legitimation activities for firm employees – constrained attention, overconfidence, and identity commitments – that affected the firm‘s ability to learn: that is, to attend to, reflect on, and dynamically respond to information and changes in its environment. Our longitudinal research thus reveals a downside of legitimacy building, contributes to the literature on behavioral strategy, and highlights unique challenges of starting a new firm in a nascent industry. Further, by identifying the mechanisms through which legitimation activities affect learning, we develop actionable propositions to help leaders and entrepreneurs manage the tension between the two sets of activities.

Sneak Preview: How ISS Dictates Equity Plan Design

Sneak Preview: How ISS Dictates Equity Plan Design

Ian D. Gow Harvard Business School

David F. Larcker Stanford University – Graduate School of Business

Allan L. McCall Stanford University – Graduate School of Business

Brian Tayan Stanford University – Graduate School of Business

October 23, 2013
Rock Center for Corporate Governance at Stanford University Closer Look Series: Topics, Issues and Controversies in Corporate Governance and Leadership No. CGRP-37

Abstract: 
Proxy advisory firms are highly influential in the design and approval of equity compensation plans.
The largest proxy advisory firm — Institutional Shareholder Services — uses a variety of tests to determine its recommendation on equity plan proposals. Among these is a proprietary metric called Shareholder Value Transfer (SVT). ISS automatically recommends a vote against a company’s equity plan if its SVT exceeds a certain allowable cap that is determined by ISS. At the same time, ISS provides little transparency into the computation of this cap and instead sells companies access to this information.
A growing body of evidence suggests that companies pay significant attention to their SVT caps and rely on this information to design their equity plans.
We examine this issue in detail. We ask: Should market participants be concerned with ISS’s influence over equity plan design? Without transparent disclosure, how can shareholders be sure that ISS’s SVT allowable caps are “correct”? Does profit motive affect ISS’s incentive to be transparent about the computation and disclosure of SVT caps?
Topics, Issues and Controversies in Corporate Governance and Leadership: The Closer Look series is a collection of short case studies through which we explore topics, issues, and controversies in corporate governance. In each study, we take a targeted look at a specific issue that is relevant to the current debate on governance and explain why it is so important. Larcker and Tayan are co-authors of the books Corporate Governance Matters and A Real Look at Real World Corporate Governance.

Do Activist Investors Constrain Managerial Moral Hazard in Chapter 11?: Evidence from Junior Activist Investing

Do Activist Investors Constrain Managerial Moral Hazard in Chapter 11?: Evidence from Junior Activist Investing

Jared A. Ellias Stanford Law School

October 23, 2013
Rock Center for Corporate Governance at Stanford University Working Paper No. 155
Stanford Law and Economics Olin Working Paper No. 451

Abstract: 
In recent years, hedge funds and other activist investors that specialize in bankruptcy investing have emerged as important players in virtually every large Chapter 11 case. These activist investors buy junior claims and deploy aggressive litigation tactics to gain influence in the restructuring process. The consensus among bankruptcy lawyers is that this behavior has had a negative effect on Chapter 11. Junior activists are considered by many to be out of the money rent seekers that try to extract hold-up value from senior creditors, increasing the administrative costs of bankruptcy and reducing the ultimate recovery of creditors. Junior activists, however, believe they counter the perverse incentives of managers of Chapter 11 debtors. Chapter 11 leaves managers in control of the bankruptcy process and requires them to maximize creditor recoveries. In performing this duty, managers face moral hazard. If the firm is reorganized in a transaction that is appraised at a discount to the firm’s true value, managers and senior creditors can profit at the expense of junior claimants. Junior activists claim they intervene to stop managers and senior creditors from extracting value from junior claimants. In this paper, I perform the first empirical study of junior activism. I develop a new methodology that measures junior activism and I use it to study a hand-collected dataset of large firms filing for Chapter 11 in 2009 and 2010. I find that junior activism is correlated with an increase in the appraised value of the restructuring transaction, supporting the view of junior activists that they constrain management’s ability to extract value from junior claimants by underappraising the firm. Although there is some evidence of cost increases associated with junior activism, these increases are small in relation to the potential benefits of junior activism. The results undermine the consensus view of junior activism and suggest that junior activists promote the bankruptcy policy goals of maximizing creditor recoveries and distributing the firm’s value in accordance with the absolute priority rule.

Financial Attention; Account logins fall by over 11% after market declines. Investors also pay less attention when news media attention to the stock market is low and the VIX volatility index is high

Financial Attention

Nachum Sicherman Columbia University; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

George Loewenstein Carnegie Mellon University – Department of Social and Decision Sciences

Duane J. Seppi Carnegie Mellon University – David A. Tepper School of Business

Stephen P. Utkus The Vanguard Group, Inc. – Center for Retirement Research

October 10, 2013

Abstract:      
Novel panel data on daily online logins for a large sample of 401(k) retirement accounts let us identify causal drivers of investor attention to their personal portfolios. We find support for selective attention to portfolio information that seems unrelated to trading-based motivations and which is consistent with psychological motives. Account logins fall by over 11% after market declines. Investors also pay less attention when news media attention to the stock market is low and the VIX volatility index is high. The attention/return correlation and level of attention are strongly related to investor demographics (gender, age) and financial condition (wealth, holdings).

What Shapes the Gatekeepers? Evidence from Global Supply Chain Auditors

What Shapes the Gatekeepers? Evidence from Global Supply Chain Auditors

Jodi L. Short UC Hastings College of Law

Michael W. Toffel Harvard Business School (HBS) – Technology & Operations Management Unit

Andrea Hugill Harvard Business School

October 22, 2013
Harvard Business School Technology & Operations Mgt. Unit Working Paper No. 14-032

Abstract: 
Private gatekeeping institutions, from credit rating agencies to supply-chain auditors, are important players in contemporary regulatory regimes. Yet little is known about what influences the decisions of the individual accountants, auditors, analysts, and attorneys who interpret and apply the rules embodied in the regulatory schemes they help to implement. Drawing on insights from the literatures on street-level bureaucracy and on regulatory and audit design, we theorize and investigate the economic incentives and social institutions that shape the gatekeeping decisions of private supply-chain auditors. We find evidence to support the argument that auditors’ decisions are influenced by financial conflicts of interest. But we also find evidence that their decisions are shaped by social factors, including an auditor’s experience, gender, and professional training; ongoing relationships between auditors and audited factories; and gender diversity on audit teams. By demonstrating the contributions of both economic incentives and social institutions to gatekeeping decisions, our research significantly extends the gatekeeping literature’s narrow focus on economic incentives. By providing the first comprehensive and systematic findings on supply-chain auditing practices, our study also suggests strategies for designing private regulatory regimes that will more effectively detect and prevent corporate wrongdoing.