Buffett’s favorite market tool is flashing red
November 12, 2013 Leave a comment
Buffett’s favorite market tool is flashing red
This little-known valuation metric has entered familiar territory. Here’s why investors should share the Oracle of Omaha’s concerns — and how they can protect themselves.
By David Sterman
In the go-go days of 1999, Warren Buffett grew very concerned. Not because his value style of investing had grown unpopular, but because investors were becoming delusional in their zeal for further gains. In a speech he made to friends, as recounted in a 1999 article in Fortune magazine (that was published just a few months before the market peaked and then plunged), Buffett warned that “once you reach the point where everybody has made money no matter what system he or she followed, a crowd is attracted into the game that is responding not to interest rates and profits but simply to the fact that it seems a mistake to be out of stocks.” A simple test of how much stocks were loved: The aggregate value of the largest 5,000 U.S. companies (as measured by the Wilshire 5000) exceeded the GNP of the U.S. economy. In fact, a market melt-up took this ratio up to 150% by early 2000 (meaning the Wilshire 5000 was 50% larger than the U.S. economy), which set the stage for one of the most painful corrections ever for investors. Read more of this post