Sweden Housing Crash Coming Up; Average Swede to Repay Mortgage in 140 Years; Swedish Central Bank Ponders New Rules

June 3, 2013 Leave a comment

Sweden Housing Crash Coming Up; Average Swede to Repay Mortgage in 140 Years; Swedish Central Bank Ponders New Rules

Posted: 01 Jun 2013 10:01 PM PDT

Average Swede to Repay Mortgage in 140 Years

Swedish repay their mortgages so slowly that it will take 140 years on average, according to the IMF.

The International Monetary Fund lamented Friday that Swedish households pay their mortgages so slowly that they are planning to do an average of 140 years.

“Financial stability is […] reinforced by a steady reduction in repayment schedules – that exceed an average of 140 years,” the IMF said in a statement after a mission in Sweden.This statistic was revealed in March by a government agency, the inspection of the financial sector. It covers loans considered relatively safe, those where the real estate buyer had an initial contribution equal to or greater than 25% of the value of the property and pay the higher monthly interest alone.

According to the Washington-based institution, the Swedish real estate market is a major risk to the economy, along with the eurozone crisis.

“With household debt rising beyond 1.7 times disposable income, a sudden and significant drop in property prices could have an effect on consumption and banks, raising unemployment and further reduce the inflation, and increased the number of non-performing loans and financing costs for banks, “said the IMF.

Why bother paying anything at all? Yet think of the consequences of underwater mortgages on the banking system when an estate does not have enough money to repay loans. A housing bust will have enormous consequences in such a setup.

Swedish Central Bank Ponders New Rules

Sweden is in the midst of a property bubble and a debt bubble, so much so that the risk mentioned above was noticed by the Swedish central bank.

And central banks are always at the tail end of noticing risks of the policies they sponsor.

Please consider Swedes’ high debts spark housing bubble fears.

Martin Andersson, the head of Sweden’s Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen), expressed his concern about Swedes’ mounting debts. “Swedish households today are among the most indebted in Europe and we cannot have household lending that spirals out of control,” Andersson said.

One tool already in place to dampen the growth of Swedish household debt is a mortgage lending ceiling introduced in 2010 which caps the amount home buyers can borrow at 85 percent of the value of the property.

Riksbank head Stefan Ingves has also suggested new rules that would require Swedes to pay down the principal on their mortgages, although Andersson refused to say whether his agency would consider such a rule.

Last year, Swedes’ household debt hit a record 173 percent of disposable income, well above the 135 percent level during the height of Sweden’s banking crisis in the early 1990s.

Sweden Housing Crash Coming Up

By the time central banks notice bubbles and begin to discuss ways to alleviate them, it is far, far too late to do anything about them. A housing crash with huge consequences is 100% certain.

The longer it takes before the crash begins, the worse the crash.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Filed under Macro Trends

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Kee Koon Boon (“KB”) is the co-founder and director of HERO Investment Management which provides specialized fund management and investment advisory services to the ARCHEA Asia HERO Innovators Fund (www.heroinnovator.com), the only Asian SMID-cap tech-focused fund in the industry. KB is an internationally featured investor rooted in the principles of value investing for over a decade as a fund manager and analyst in the Asian capital markets who started his career at a boutique hedge fund in Singapore where he was with the firm since 2002 and was also part of the core investment committee in significantly outperforming the index in the 10-year-plus-old flagship Asian fund. He was also the portfolio manager for Asia-Pacific equities at Korea’s largest mutual fund company. Prior to setting up the H.E.R.O. Innovators Fund, KB was the Chief Investment Officer & CEO of a Singapore Registered Fund Management Company (RFMC) where he is responsible for listed Asian equity investments. KB had taught accounting at the Singapore Management University (SMU) as a faculty member and also pioneered the 15-week course on Accounting Fraud in Asia as an official module at SMU. KB remains grateful and honored to be invited by Singapore’s financial regulator Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to present to their top management team about implementing a world’s first fact-based forward-looking fraud detection framework to bring about benefits for the capital markets in Singapore and for the public and investment community. KB also served the community in sharing his insights in writing articles about value investing and corporate governance in the media that include Business Times, Straits Times, Jakarta Post, Manual of Ideas, Investopedia, TedXWallStreet. He had also presented in top investment, banking and finance conferences in America, Italy, Sydney, Cape Town, HK, China. He has trained CEOs, entrepreneurs, CFOs, management executives in business strategy & business model innovation in Singapore, HK and China.

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