Myanmar’s old friend China is left wondering where it went wrong; President Thein Sein said he personally despises Beijing’s influence over its smaller, poorer neighbour

June 17, 2013 1:04 pm

Myanmar’s old friend China is left wondering where it went wrong

By Jamil Anderlini in Naypyidaw

In the surreal Burmese capital Naypyidawit’s hard to miss the gleaming convention centre built by a Chinese state-owned construction company and donated to the military junta a few years ago in a gesture of bilateral amity.

But earlier this month, as more than 900 executives from across the globe gathered in the complex for Burma’s first ever World Economic Forum, the Chinese presence was conspicuously absent. According to the official WEF list, only 16 participants were from mainland China.

For decades after the founding of the People’s Republic, American foreign policy was obsessed by the question of “who lost China?”Today in Beijing the question being asked by Chinese mandarins and Communist party luminaries is “who lost Burma?”

From an isolated totalitarian regime and virtual Chinese client state just two years ago, the country has thrown open its doors and the excitement of change and reform is evident everywhere.

Western sanctions have mostly been lifted and global investors are rushing to position themselves for a market boasting 60m customers and decades of infrastructure catchup potential.

At the WEF this month, former generals in traditional Burmese dress rubbed shoulders with executives from Thailand, Vietnam, Europe, the US and Japan, which was especially well-represented by eager investors.

The absence of a strong Chinese presence was all the more noticeable because of the way Burmese ministers and parliamentarians referred to their former comrades in Beijing – studiously polite in public but rather more scathing in private.

“We said thank you very much to the Chinese for their help and then we asked them to leave,” said one adviser to a Burmese minister.

As President Thein Sein gave the opening address to the forum, the word in the halls of the Chinese-built convention centre was that he personally despises Beijing’s influence over its smaller, poorer neighbour. And on the second day of the forum news broke that state telecom giant China Mobile had dropped a joint bid with Vodafone to expand the country’s mobile phone network – apparently after being told the Chinese company had no hope of winning.

In Beijing and Naypyidaw there is recognition that China handled the bilateral relationship badly thanks to a toxic mix of arrogance, neglect and meddling by elements of China’s People’s Liberation Army.

The PLA remains highly influential in Myanmar and deeply involved in business ventures there.

A lot of the day-to-day handling of the relationship was also delegated down to the provincial government and military command in Yunnan, which shares a long, lawless border with Myanmar.

Even now, all flights between Myanmar and China are required to transit through Kunming, the capital of Yunnan province, even though there are direct connections from Yangon to Seoul, Singapore, Bangkok, Hong Kong, Ho Chi Minh City and several other destinations.

The Myanmar generals eventually decided they were far too beholden to relatively low-level Chinese masters and realised their best leverage would come from diversifying their friend base.

That does not mean the reforming administration is turning its back on Beijing completely.

For one thing, the new pipelines that will begin pumping Burmese gas in the next couple of months all lead to China and Chinese companies have a big head start after many years of western sanctions.

They also have much to teach a country with a total gross domestic product that is equal only to that of the city of Fresno in the US or Bristol in the UK.

The “intelligent handling” of international relations recommended by opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, will have to involve clever balancing between all the various suitors, including China, that are jostling to invest in the country.

“It is a bit of a frenzy right now and a frenzy is never attractive,” she told reporters at the forum in Naypyidaw.

As it seeks to recover some of its faded influence in the midst of that frenzy Beijing must reflect on how it managed to alienate its former client and what the real lessons of Myanmar might be for China itself.

Unfortunately, deep discussions of Myanmar’s political reforms are banned from mainstream Chinese media and even the Hollywood film The Lady – about the life of Ms Suu Kyi – was blocked from being shown in mainland China.

Ultimately, Chinese leaders are probably less concerned about their diminished influence over their neighbour and more worried that the democratic awakening of the Myanmar Spring could spill over the border.